Abivax (ABVX)

Price€99.40Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 10:36 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look overvalued because the market already assumes a major commercial success.

After the July financing, roughly 86 million shares imply an equity value near $10 billion. Allowing for substantial cash raised leaves roughly $8.5 billion to $9 billion of value attached mainly to obefazimod. If a successful mature drug were valued at three to four times annual sales, that valuation would require roughly $2.2 billion to $3 billion of annual sales. That outcome is possible, but demanding before approval, launch, or product revenue.

Big pictureThis is a cash-burning drug developer whose value depends mainly on clinical and regulatory success.

Revenue was only €4.6 million in 2025 while the net loss widened to €336.1 million from €176.2 million in 2024. Research spending reached €177.8 million and operating cash outflow was €161.1 million. With negligible capital spending, free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, was similarly negative. Abivax is therefore driven less by normal economic cycles than by trial results, regulatory decisions, financing access, and eventual prescription demand.

Business strengthStrong late-stage trial results and a fortified balance sheet sharply reduce near-term financing risk.

The strongest asset evidence is compelling: in the 580-patient maintenance trial, clinical remission reached 50.8% and 51.3% on the two doses versus 10.4% on placebo, with all key secondary goals met. Financing risk also fell after July's offering generated about €767 million of estimated net proceeds and extended expected funding into late 2029. The cost is dilution: shares outstanding rose from 63.3 million at 2024 year-end to 78.5 million at 2025 year-end, followed by further 2026 issuance.

What could change the storyApproval progress, reassuring safety data, and strong demand could justify the premium; setbacks could erase it.

The bull case strengthens if the planned United States filing is accepted, regulators remain comfortable with long-term safety, and launch demand shows obefazimod can support multi-billion-dollar sales. June's supplemental trial also showed 37.2% remission among earlier non-responders and 45.5% after dose escalation. The bear case is concentration: Abivax still has no approved product and most value rests on one lead drug. A restrictive label, renewed malignancy concern, weak uptake, or disappointing Crohn's results would undermine today's valuation assumptions.

AI: News

Maintenance trial safety scareExcellent remission results were overshadowed by cancer cases, raising investor concern about long-term safety.

On June 1, Abivax reported 44-week remission of 50.8% and 51.3% on obefazimod versus 10.4% on placebo. Three serious malignancies appeared in patients receiving the higher dose, although investigators judged them unrelated to treatment. Reuters reported the Paris shares fell about 30% the following day. The concern matters because even a highly effective chronic medicine can lose commercial value if regulators or physicians become uncomfortable with long-term safety.

Part Two safety reboundAdditional difficult-patient data strengthened efficacy and eased concerns raised by the earlier safety findings.

On June 29, Abivax reported that 37.2% of earlier induction non-responders reached clinical remission after continued treatment, while dose escalation recaptured remission in 45.5% of relapsing patients. An integrated 1,704 patient-year analysis placed malignancy rates within published ulcerative-colitis background ranges. The Paris shares rose sharply after the update. That reaction is consistent with investors assigning less probability to a serious safety restriction, although price timing alone cannot prove causation.

Large equity financingA heavily subscribed share sale greatly extended funding capacity while meaningfully diluting existing owners.

On July 6, Abivax completed the sale of 7.36 million new depositary shares. Gross proceeds reached $920 million and estimated net proceeds were about $874 million, or €767 million. Management said the funds should finance operations into the fourth quarter of 2029, supporting regulatory work, launch preparation, and further development. The trade-off was meaningful dilution, but removing near-term financing pressure increased the company's ability to reach commercialization without another urgent capital raise.

FDA filing alignmentRegulatory discussions kept the planned United States approval filing on track and reduced procedural uncertainty.

On July 30, Abivax said discussions with the United States Food and Drug Administration produced alignment on the planned content and format of its obefazimod application. The company still expects to submit by the end of 2026. This does not mean approval is assured because efficacy, safety, manufacturing, and labeling remain subject to review. The announcement mainly reduced the risk of an avoidable filing delay rather than resolving the larger question of final approval.

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Revenue

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2022

2023

2024

2025

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	€4.6M	€12.4M	€4.6M	€4.6M	€12.0M
Research & development	€177.8M	€146.5M	€103.2M	€48.3M	€47.8M
Operating expenses	€250.6M	€185.4M	€132.0M	€69.4M	€53.4M
Operating income	−€246.1M	−€173.0M	−€127.4M	−€64.8M	−€41.4M
Operating margin	−5,384.16%	−1,389.54%	−2,756.46%	−1,414.71%	−346.12%
EBITDA	−€245.0M	−€171.9M	−€126.7M	−€64.4M	−€41.1M
EBITDA margin	−5,360.70%	−1,380.71%	−2,741.16%	−1,404.12%	−343.60%
Net income	−€336.1M	−€176.2M	−€147.7M	−€60.7M	−€42.5M
Net profit margin	−7,354.53%	−1,415.71%	−3,197.14%	−1,325.33%	−354.92%
Basic EPSper basic share	-€4.83	-€2.80	-€3.43	-€3.18	-€2.75
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-€4.83	-€2.80	-€3.43	-€3.18	-€2.75

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Owners

Reported shareholders and owner groups

Source dated Sep 24, 2026

7.73%of company shares

Invus Public Equities, L.P.Source updated Sep 24, 2026

View holders

Reported shareholders of ABVX
Holder	Ownership
Invus Public Equities, L.P.	7.73%Sep 24, 2026
Managers and Members of the board	7.49%Sep 24, 2026
TCG Crossover Management, LLC	7.38%Sep 24, 2026
Darwin Global Management Limited	4.87%Sep 24, 2026
Sofinnova Partners SAS	3.81%Sep 24, 2026
Employees	3.27%Sep 24, 2026

These Euronext company-profile figures report shares in the company's capital. Named holders and owner groups are shown as published; free float, treasury shares, and unspecified holders are excluded from the colored segments.

Gray completes the 100% scale; it is not an estimate of other owners.

Source: Euronext / Cofisem ↗Checked Sep 27, 2026

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