Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkAt $80.45, ADM looks reasonably priced, but not clearly cheap for a cyclical business.

The latest official close was $80.45 on August 14, 2026. Against management’s adjusted 2026 earnings guidance of $5.15–$5.60 per share, which excludes specified unusual items, investors pay 14.4–15.6 times forecast profit, or about 15.0 times the midpoint. The price is also 16.2 times average reported earnings of $4.96 per share for 2021–2025. This looks fair rather than distressed because it assumes much of the biofuel-led rebound persists while providing limited protection if profits return toward 2025 levels.

Big pictureProfits are rebounding sharply, but ADM’s history shows cash and earnings can swing widely.

Net income fell from $4.34 billion in 2022 to $1.08 billion in 2025, before rebounding to $1.21 billion in the first half of 2026, versus $514 million one year earlier. Free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was a strong $4.20 billion in 2025, but working-capital movements can greatly distort this measure in commodity trading. First-half 2026 free cash flow was a more modest $833 million. The record therefore supports cash durability across cycles, but not smooth annual results.

Business strengthDebt is manageable, dividends remain covered, and past buybacks reduced the share count.

At June 2026, ADM held $1.06 billion of cash against $8.01 billion of debt, leaving $6.95 billion of net debt versus $23.58 billion of equity. Current assets exceeded current liabilities by $7.79 billion, providing working-capital protection. First-half free cash flow covered $510 million of dividends about 1.6 times. Buybacks totaled $2.33 billion in 2024 but stopped in 2025; estimated diluted shares nevertheless fell about 14% from 2022 to 2025. Employee stock compensation reached $138 million in early 2026, although outstanding shares stayed near 482 million.

What could change the storyStable biofuel profits could support gains, while policy or crop-price reversals could undo the rebound.

The bull case is broadening improvement: second-quarter segment profit rose 75%, including 129% growth in agricultural services and oilseeds and 51% in Nutrition. Results also included about $100 million of favorable commodity-pricing timing effects, however, and crushing and ethanol strength depended partly on government fuel mandates, elevated energy prices, and cheaper corn. Sustained earnings above $5.60 per share, converted into cash while debt falls, would support a higher value. A retreat below the earlier $4.15–$4.70 guidance would make today’s price demanding for this cyclical business.

$80.45 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter outlook jumpA sharp profit recovery prompted a major guidance increase, but policy-sensitive businesses drove much of the improvement.

On August 4, 2026, ADM reported second-quarter net income of $908 million and adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share, nearly double the prior year’s $0.93. Management raised full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $5.15–$5.60 from $4.15–$4.70. Agricultural services and oilseeds profit rose 129%, supported by stronger crushing margins and biofuel demand. Shares closed 2.3% higher that day; the timing is consistent with a favorable reaction but does not establish sole causation.

Oilseed expansion announcedADM plans targeted plant upgrades to capture more renewable-fuel demand without constructing entirely new facilities.

On July 30, 2026, ADM announced upgrades at four American oilseed-processing sites, targeting roughly 700,000 metric tons of additional annual capacity, equal to more than 25 million bushels of crop demand. Completion is expected between mid-2028 and early 2029. The announcement did not disclose total project cost. Using existing plants should limit construction risk, but the investment’s value depends on biofuel demand and processing margins remaining attractive when the new capacity becomes available.

First outlook increaseEarlier policy clarity had already lifted profit expectations and pushed the shares higher in May.

On May 5, 2026, ADM reported adjusted first-quarter earnings of $0.71 per share and raised 2026 guidance to $4.15–$4.70 from $3.60–$4.25. Management tied the increase mainly to expected improvement in oilseed crushing and ethanol following finalized fuel rules. The shares closed at $79.19, up 3.8% from the prior close. That same-day timing supports an association with the announcement, although broader trading conditions may also have influenced the move.

Biofuel rules finalizedNew federal fuel requirements increased expected demand for the corn and soybean products ADM processes.

On March 27, 2026, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized renewable-fuel requirements for 2026 and 2027, including biomass-based diesel volumes of 8.86 billion and 8.95 billion compliance credits and a 70% reallocation of previously exempted obligations. These rules encourage refiners to blend more renewable fuel, supporting demand for soybean oil and corn ethanol. No reliable isolated stock reaction was established, but ADM later identified the rule as a central reason for both 2026 guidance increases.

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Free cash flow

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012 · Dec 31	2012 · Jun 30	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$24.96B	$24.37B	$25.69B	$27.61B	$85.25B	$64.36B	$64.66B	$64.34B	$60.83B	$62.35B	$67.70B	$81.20B	$89.80B	$90.56B	$89.04B	$80.68B	$61.68B	$69.21B	$69.82B
Gross profit	$5.03B	$5.78B	$7.51B	$7.57B	$5.99B	$4.45B	$4.15B	$4.18B	$3.52B	$3.62B	$3.97B	$4.77B	$3.89B	$3.62B	$3.67B	$4.30B	$3.84B	$4.09B	$3.84B
Research & development	$246.0M	$269.0M	$256.0M	$216.0M	$171.0M	$160.0M	$154.0M	$141.0M	$129.0M	$123.0M	$122.0M	$79.0M	$59.0M	$55.0M	$56.0M	$60.0M	$56.0M	$50.0M	$49.0M
Net income	$1.08B	$1.80B	$3.48B	$4.34B	$2.71B	$1.77B	$1.38B	$1.81B	$1.59B	$1.28B	$1.85B	$2.25B	$1.34B	$1.38B	$1.22B	$2.04B	$1.93B	$1.68B	$1.78B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$2.23	$3.66	$6.44	$7.72	$4.80	$3.16	$2.45	$3.21	$2.80	$2.18	$2.99	$3.44	$2.03	$2.08	$1.84	$3.17	$3.00	$2.62	$2.76
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.23	$3.65	$6.43	$7.71	$4.79	$3.15	$2.44	$3.19	$2.79	$2.16	$2.98	$3.43	$2.02	$2.08	$1.84	$3.13	$3.00	$2.62	$2.75

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$486.8K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)9$29.85M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Cuddy Christopher MSenior Vice President	SellCommon Stock	35.0K	$73.50	$2.57M	331.1K
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Pinner Ian RSenior Vice President	SellCommon Stock	34.1K	$71.53	$2.44M	90.7K
Mar 10, 2026Form 4	Morris Gregory ASenior Vice President	SellCommon Stock	50.0K	$68.48	$3.42M	300.1K
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	Weber Jennifer LSenior Vice President	SellCommon Stock	25.0K	$67.04	$1.68M	123.7K
Feb 5, 2026Form 4	McAtee David R IIDirector	BuyCommon Stock	7.5K	$64.90	$486.8K	7.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells