Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkAt $251.66, Autodesk looks fairly priced because strong cash growth offsets demanding expectations.

Autodesk closed at $251.66 on August 14, 2026. With about 212 million shares, that implies a $53.4 billion equity value. Management guided to $2.73-$2.80 billion of fiscal 2027 free cash flow, putting the price at 19.1-19.6 times that cash; free cash flow means cash left after running and investing in the business. Reported earnings guidance implies 29-31 times earnings. These are not bargain levels, but 18% first-quarter revenue growth supports them. The guidance excludes MaintainX, leaving acquisition costs and debt uncertain.

Big pictureSubscriptions make cash durable, although customer industries still rise and fall with investment cycles.

Revenue rose from $3.79 billion in fiscal 2020 to $7.21 billion in fiscal 2025, while operating income climbed from $629 million to $1.58 billion. Free cash flow reached $2.41 billion in fiscal 2025, despite uneven billing-related results in earlier years. In the latest quarter, 97% of revenue came from repeating subscription and maintenance payments. Contracted revenue expected within twelve months reached $5.38 billion, up 18%. Construction and manufacturing demand remains cyclical, but renewals and prepaid contracts soften rather than eliminate that exposure.

Business strengthAutodesk can fund growth, but its large acquisition reduces the balance-sheet cushion.

At April 30, Autodesk held $2.67 billion of cash against $2.50 billion of debt; cash plus marketable securities totaled $3.31 billion. The completed MaintainX purchase changes that picture: planned funding was roughly $1.6 billion of cash and $2.0 billion of new borrowing, implying materially higher net debt. Buybacks totaled $1.40 billion in fiscal 2025 and reduced shares only from 214 million to 212 million, partly because $788 million of employee share compensation offset repurchases. The balance sheet remains serviceable, but capital allocation now deserves closer scrutiny.

What could change the storyFaster lasting growth would justify the price, while a weak acquisition would not.

The bull case is continued low-teens organic growth, supported by 18% latest-quarter revenue growth and $7.81 billion of contracted future revenue, plus useful cross-selling from MaintainX. The bear case is paying about 27 times MaintainX's expected 2026 recurring revenue while adding debt, then failing to integrate it. The current price needs core revenue to maintain roughly the guided 13%-14% pace and annual free cash flow to approach $2.8 billion. Sustained growth below 10%, weaker renewals, or acquisition-driven margin slippage would undermine fair value; clear synergy without dilution would strengthen it.

$251.66 price considered

AI: News

Strong first quarterRevenue and cash grew sharply, but the same-day acquisition clouded the market response.

On May 28, 2026, Autodesk reported first-quarter revenue of $1.93 billion, up 18%, while reported earnings rose to $2.32 per share from $0.70. Free cash flow increased 58% to $876 million. Management raised fiscal 2027 guidance to $8.16-$8.22 billion of revenue and $2.73-$2.80 billion of free cash flow, excluding MaintainX. Shares closed 6.8% lower the next day at $224.64, but the acquisition announcement occurred simultaneously, so the decline cannot reasonably be attributed to operating results alone.

MaintainX purchase announcedAutodesk accepted a high acquisition price to expand from designing assets into maintaining them.

On May 28, Autodesk agreed to buy MaintainX for approximately $3.6 billion in cash. MaintainX expected more than $135 million of 2026 annualized recurring revenue growing above 50%, making the price roughly 27 times that revenue. Autodesk planned to use about $1.6 billion of cash and $2.0 billion of additional borrowing. Shares fell more than 5% before the May 29 open and closed down 6.8%; reports linked concern to the deal, although the simultaneous earnings release prevents certain attribution.

MaintainX deal completedClosing removed deal uncertainty but started the harder work of integration and debt repayment.

Autodesk announced on August 3, 2026 that it had completed the MaintainX acquisition. Completion removes regulatory and closing risk while giving Autodesk access to maintenance work orders, inspections, and operating data that could connect with its design software. However, MaintainX was excluded from the May guidance, so its revenue contribution, integration costs, and borrowing expense remained unquantified. Autodesk shares rose only 0.2% that day to $234.71; that timing alone does not show the announcement caused the move.

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$7.21B	$6.13B	$5.50B	$5.00B	$4.39B	$3.79B	$3.27B	$2.57B	$2.06B	$2.03B	$2.50B	$2.51B	$2.27B	$2.31B	$2.22B	$1.95B	$1.71B	$2.32B	$2.17B
Gross profit	$6.56B	$5.55B	$4.99B	$4.53B	$3.97B	$3.45B	$2.95B	$2.28B	$1.75B	$1.69B	$2.13B	$2.17B	$2.00B	$2.07B	$1.99B	$1.76B	$1.52B	$2.10B	$1.96B
Research & development	$1.64B	$1.49B	$1.37B	$1.22B	$1.11B	$932.0M	$851.1M	$725.0M	$755.5M	$766.1M	$790.0M	$725.2M	$611.1M	$600.0M	$566.5M	$496.2M	$457.5M	$576.1M	$490.5M
Operating expenses	$4.98B	$4.20B	$3.86B	$3.54B	$3.35B	$2.82B	$2.61B	$2.31B	$2.26B	$2.19B	$2.13B	$2.05B	$1.71B	$1.77B	$1.63B	$1.48B	$1.46B	$1.85B	$1.52B
Operating income	$1.58B	$1.35B	$1.13B	$989.0M	$618.0M	$629.0M	$343.0M	−$25.0M	−$509.1M	−$499.6M	$1.3M	$120.7M	$284.8M	$305.9M	$355.6M	$271.4M	$65.6M	$244.5M	$445.6M
EBITDAderived	$1.77B	$1.53B	$1.27B	$1.14B	$766.0M	$753.0M	$470.3M	$70.2M	−$400.7M	−$360.4M	$147.1M	$266.6M	$413.7M	$433.7M	$471.1M	$376.8M	$177.1M	$336.9M	$506.9M
Net income	$1.12B	$1.11B	$906.0M	$823.0M	$497.0M	$1.21B	$214.5M	−$80.8M	−$566.9M	−$582.1M	−$330.5M	$81.8M	$228.8M	$247.4M	$285.3M	$212.0M	$58.0M	$183.6M	$356.2M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$5.28	$5.17	$4.23	$3.81	$2.26	$5.52	$0.98	-$0.37	-$2.58	-$2.61	-$1.46	$0.36	$1.02	$1.09	$1.25	$0.93	$0.25	$0.81	$1.55
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$5.23	$5.12	$4.19	$3.78	$2.24	$5.44	$0.96	-$0.37	-$2.58	-$2.61	-$1.46	$0.35	$1.00	$1.07	$1.22	$0.90	$0.25	$0.80	$1.47

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys7$2.71M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)28$26.58M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 23, 2026Form 4	CAHILL JOHN TDirector	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	2.0K	$189.20	$378.4K	4.0K
Jun 16, 2026Form 4	Anagnost AndrewPresident and CEO	BuyCommon Stock	2.5K	$202.66	$498.5K	203.0K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	Moorjani JaneshEVP, Chief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	2.5K	$197.67	$494.2K	51.0K
May 29, 2026Form 4	Smith Stacy JDirector	BuyCommon Stock	2.7K	$231.34	$633.6K	26.5K
May 29, 2026Form 4	Smith Stacy JDirector	BuyCommon Stock	696	$230.48	$160.4K	23.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells