Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)

Price$13.46Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 13:48 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price assumes a major recovery that current cash results do not support.

Using 125.0 million shares and $881.0 million of net debt, the observed quote implies roughly $1.73 billion of equity value and $2.61 billion of enterprise value, which includes net debt. That is about 31 times trailing reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $85.3 million. The company also lost $118.3 million and burned roughly $183.1 million after capital spending over those four quarters. With no positive earnings or cash return anchoring value, the quote looks overvalued unless power projects deliver a large, prompt recovery.

Big pictureSales remain high, but falling margins have turned growth into losses and cash strain.

Revenue edged up 3.7% in 2025 to $1.10 billion, yet gross profit fell 35% to $150.7 million and a $59.9 million 2024 profit became a $50.3 million loss. The first half of 2026 then produced a further $72.4 million loss. Over the latest four quarters, operations generated only $54.6 million of cash while capital spending reached $237.7 million. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was therefore about negative $183 million. Sand pricing and oilfield completion activity make that cash generation highly cyclical.

Business strengthStrong logistics assets are offset by heavier debt, dilution, and reduced cash returns.

Dune Express and the mine-to-well network offer a genuine cost and service advantage: second-quarter 2026 conveyor volumes set a record, and last-mile shipments reached six million tons. However, cash of $168.2 million sat against $1.05 billion of debt; current assets still covered near-term liabilities 1.8 times. Shares outstanding rose 13.4% from year-end 2024, while stock compensation reached $33.2 million in 2025. Atlas paid $92.3 million of dividends through September 2025 but none in 2026's first half, and used only $0.2 million of its $200 million buyback authorization.

What could change the storyContracted power growth could justify the valuation, but execution must improve reported cash.

The strongest bull case is the contracted 120-megawatt power plant, expected to contribute $50 million to $55 million of annual adjusted free cash flow—a company measure that excludes growth spending—after energization in 2027. More signed projects using reserved Caterpillar equipment could add upside. The bear case is financing: Atlas committed about $840 million to equipment through 2029 while sand cash weakened. Evidence would improve if operating cash consistently covers interest and total capital spending. More debt or shares before power cash arrives would reinforce the overvaluation case.

AI: News

Second-quarter resultsRevenue rebounded sequentially, but another loss and weak operating cash kept the turnaround unproven.

On August 3, Atlas reported second-quarter revenue of $293.2 million, up 10.4% from the first quarter, but a $25.1 million net loss and almost no cash from operations. Its adjusted earnings measure, which excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and selected costs, improved to $49.5 million from $29.9 million. Company-defined adjusted free cash flow was $34.9 million, but excludes most growth spending. Shares fell 3.2% after hours; that timing suggests concern about the results but does not prove they alone caused the move.

Driverless fleet expansionAtlas plans to nearly quadruple driverless trucks, aiming to lower costs and improve delivery reliability.

On July 31, Atlas and Kodiak said the driverless fleet would grow from 28 trucks at March-end to 100 by mid-2027 and expand to a second load-out point on Dune Express. Earlier operating data showed more than 15,000 loads and approximately 450,000 tons moved. Greater utilization and less dependence on scarce drivers could lower delivery costs and improve reliability, strengthening Atlas's logistics advantage. The companies did not quantify expected savings, so the effect on business value remains an inference rather than a reported result.

Private-power contractA long-term private-power contract opens a sizable, steadier cash stream outside frac sand.

On April 1, Atlas signed a five-year agreement, with two optional five-year extensions, to supply 120 megawatts to an investment-grade technology infrastructure customer. Equipment delivery and construction were expected to lead to operation in the first half of 2027; a 26-megawatt bridge facility was completed by June. Management estimates $50 million to $55 million of annual adjusted free cash flow, which excludes growth spending. If achieved, this adds contracted, less cyclical cash, but construction and customer ramp timing remain important uncertainties.

Convertible debt financingLow-cost convertible debt funds power growth but raises leverage and future dilution risk.

On April 9, Atlas issued $450 million of 0.5% convertible notes due in 2031, producing approximately $386 million of net proceeds after fees and hedging costs. Proceeds repaid $141 million of lease and credit-facility balances and funded Caterpillar power equipment. If fully converted at the initial rate, the notes represent roughly 31 million shares before settlement choices; capped-call hedges reduce dilution only within a defined price range. The cheap interest rate helps funding, but successful power deployment is essential to protect per-share value.

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Revenue

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2025

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$1.10B	$1.06B	$614.0M	$482.7M	$172.4M
Gross profit	$150.7M	$232.0M	$313.8M	$256.3M	$64.1M
Gross margin	13.76%	21.97%	51.11%	53.10%	37.16%
Operating expenses	$161.6M	$118.1M	$48.6M	$24.3M	$17.1M
Operating income	−$10.9M	$113.9M	$265.1M	$232.0M	$47.0M
Operating margin	−1.00%	10.78%	43.18%	48.06%	27.26%
EBITDA	$149.2M	$212.6M	$304.9M	$259.5M	$70.7M
EBITDA margin	13.63%	20.14%	49.67%	53.76%	40.99%
Net income	−$50.3M	$59.9M	$105.4M	$217.0M	$4.3M
Net profit margin	−4.59%	5.68%	17.17%	44.95%	2.47%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.41	$0.55	$1.50	$3.80	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.41	$0.55	$1.48	$3.80	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 17 reported holders of AESI
Holder	Shares held
BRIGHAM BEN M	15.51M
Sealy & Smith Foundation	14.87M
SHEPARD GREGORY M	7.42M
Turner John Gregory	1.98M
LANGFORD A LANCE	1.29M
Schmidt Richard W	1.09M
Hock Stacy / Hock Joel	800K
Scholla Chris	567.97K
Ginn Kirk Edwards	559.32K
Voelter Dathan C	490.95K
Leveille Brian Anthony	352.01K
McCarthy Benjamin Blake	183.85K
Voyles Robb L.	54.39K
Mills Mark P	53.21K
Howard John Michael	45.15K
Burleson Gayle	37.82K
Rogers Douglas G	—

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys18$9.33M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)34$12.15M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 6, 2026Form 4	Scholla ChrisTenPercentOwner,Other	SellCommon Stock	8.9K	$11.79	$105.1K	568.0K
Feb 18, 2026Form 4	SHEPARD GREGORY MOther	SellCommon Stock	130.0K	$11.98	$1.56M	7.42M
Feb 17, 2026Form 4	SHEPARD GREGORY MOther	SellCommon Stock	100.0K	$11.75	$1.18M	7.55M
Nov 18, 2025Form 4	Scholla ChrisTenPercentOwner,Other	SellCommon Stock	52.1K	$8.82	$460.0K	550.9K
May 14, 2025Form 4/A	Rogers Douglas GDirector	BuyCommon Stock	7.0K	$13.27	$92.9K	10.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

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@tickerstat16 days ago
Atlas signs equipment agreements supporting additional AI power projects
Atlas Energy Solutions ($AESI) entered two equipment-purchase and cost-reimbursement agreements with an unnamed frontier AI laboratory. One covers balance-of-plant equipment under an existing framework using Caterpillar generation systems. ...
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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)

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Atlas signs equipment agreements supporting additional AI power projects