agilon health, inc. (AGL)

Price$88.50Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 06:19 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe turnaround is real, but today’s valuation already assumes much of it lasts.

At roughly $1.5 billion of equity value and about $225 million of net cash, the market values operations near $1.28 billion. Against management’s $75 million-$95 million 2026 adjusted operating-profit target, which excludes several costs, that is about 13-17 times. Removing the $25 million-$30 million expected from partly owned care groups lifts the core multiple toward 20-26 times. Because the company still consumes cash and the adjusted measure omits real costs, the price offers too little safety, supporting Overvalued.

Big pictureSales have scaled, yet profits and cash have not proved durable.

Revenue grew from $1.22 billion in 2020 to $5.93 billion in 2025, yet every supplied year shows a net loss. The 2025 loss worsened to $391 million from $260 million, while operating cash use widened to $106 million from $58 million. First-half 2026 profit reached $67 million, but operations still used $34 million; after $7 million invested in equipment and software, free cash flow—cash left after running and investing—remained about negative $40 million. Medical use and later claim revisions make quarterly results unusually changeable.

Business strengthLow debt cushions the turnaround, while shrinking membership and share awards dilute that comfort.

June liquidity was meaningful: $257 million of cash and marketable securities versus $32 million of debt. However, current assets exceeded current liabilities by only about $106 million, and stockholders’ equity was $228 million, limiting the hard-asset cushion. The post-split share count rose from 16.49 million at 2024 year-end to 16.79 million, while first-half 2026 stock awards cost $30 million. SEC-derived records also show a $200 million buyback in 2023, yet shares subsequently increased. There is no dividend; capital has mainly funded operations and employee awards.

What could change the storyDurable medical savings and positive cash flow could justify the price; reversals would not.

The bull case is sharper: second-quarter gross profit reached $107 million versus a $52 million loss a year earlier, and net income improved to $18 million from a $104 million loss. Management raised 2026 adjusted operating-profit guidance to $75 million-$95 million. The bear case is durability: membership fell 10%, results benefited from favorable estimates for earlier claims, and third-quarter guidance ranges from a $5 million loss to $5 million profit. Full-year positive free cash flow, stable membership and margins without prior-claim help would strengthen the case; misses would expose the rich multiple.

AI: News

Quarterly profit returnsQuarterly profit returned and guidance rose, but falling membership and earlier-claim help clouded durability.

On August 5, second-quarter revenue rose 7% to $1.49 billion, gross profit swung to $107 million from a $52 million loss, and management lifted 2026 adjusted operating-profit guidance to $75 million-$95 million. Membership still fell 10%, and some medical-margin improvement came from favorable estimates for earlier claims. The shares closed 19.5% lower in the next session. That timing links the move to the report but does not prove causation; investors may have questioned how repeatable the quarter was.

Citi valuation downgradeA broker downgrade exposed how quickly the rally could reverse when valuation came under scrutiny.

On July 23, Citi cut its rating to Sell after a roughly 650% year-to-date rally. According to financial reporting, the bank viewed agilon’s valuation as 38% above peers and worried Medicare Advantage insurers could keep more margin in 2027, leaving less for partners such as agilon. The shares fell 10.8% during the afternoon and finished 16.4% lower. This was one broker’s opinion, not a company operating event, but the reaction showed how sensitive the stock had become to valuation doubts.

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Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

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2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2020

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$5.93B	$6.06B	$4.32B	$2.39B	$1.52B	$1.22B	$794.4M
Operating expenses	$6.40B	$6.35B	$4.55B	$2.49B	$1.89B	$1.28B	$901.0M
Operating income	−$463.2M	−$292.1M	−$232.1M	−$105.4M	−$372.2M	−$56.7M	−$106.6M
Operating margin	−7.81%	−4.82%	−5.38%	−4.41%	−24.47%	−4.65%	−13.42%
EBITDA	−$434.6M	−$267.7M	−$212.0M	−$91.6M	−$357.6M	−$42.6M	−$65.2M
EBITDA margin	−7.33%	−4.42%	−4.91%	−3.84%	−23.50%	−3.49%	−8.20%
Net income	−$391.3M	−$260.2M	−$262.6M	−$106.6M	−$406.5M	−$60.1M	−$282.6M
Net profit margin	−6.60%	−4.29%	−6.08%	−4.46%	−26.72%	−4.93%	−35.57%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$23.75	-$15.75	-$16.00	-$6.50	—	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$23.75	-$15.75	-$16.00	-$6.50	—	—	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

23.83%of listed shares

Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC4M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of AGL
Holder	% owned
Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, LLC	23.83%4M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	11.98%2.01M shares
North Peak Capital Management, LLC	8.85%1.49M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	6.83%1.15M shares
Sell Steven	≈5.62%943.91K shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.13%692.54K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	4.09%686.79K shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.13%525.33K shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	2.79%468.29K shares
Durable Capital Partners LP	2.63%440.64K shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	2.32%390.15K shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	2.08%348.96K shares
O'Rourke Timothy Patrick	≈1.91%320K shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.87%314.17K shares
STATE STREET CORP	1.67%280.13K shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	1.63%273.39K shares
Rock Springs Capital Management LP	1.56%262.6K shares
Nuveen, LLC	1.36%229.07K shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	0.91%152.21K shares
WILLIAMS RONALD A	—149.14K shares

Percentages use 16.79M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys15$916.9K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 9, 2026Form 4	Zamore DeniseChief Legal Officer	BuyCommon Stock	5.5K	—	—	448.7K
Mar 9, 2026Form 4	Venkatachaliah GirishChief Technology Officer	BuyCommon Stock	18.4K	—	—	285.1K
Mar 9, 2026Form 4	Shaker BenjaminChief Markets Officer	BuyCommon Stock	18.4K	—	—	1.39M
Mar 2, 2026Form 4	Shaker BenjaminChief Markets Officer	BuyCommon Stock	500.0K	$0.60	$300.0K	1.37M
Nov 12, 2025Form 4	Wulf John WilliamDirector	BuyCommon Stock	81.0K	$0.63	$51.0K	365.9K