ALLSTATE CORP (ALL)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because today’s low earnings multiple rests on unusually strong profits.

At $261.41, Allstate trades at about 5.2 times trailing reported earnings of $49.94 per share. Using adjusted earnings, which remove investment swings and other unusual items, the multiple is roughly 5.8 times. Those figures look cheap, but the recent 44.2% adjusted return on shareholder capital is unlikely to persist. Applying a more normal 15%–20% return to June’s $123.38 book value gives earnings near $18.50–$24.70 and a valuation of 10.6–14.1 times earnings. That supports a fair-priced verdict.

Big picturePremium growth is steady, but recent profits sit near the top of a volatile cycle.

Revenue rose from $41.9 billion in 2020 to $67.7 billion in 2025, while first-half 2026 revenue increased 7.4% from a year earlier. Profit durability is less certain: Allstate lost money in 2022 and 2023 before earning $10.3 billion in 2025 and $5.7 billion during first-half 2026. Cash generation is currently strong. Operating cash less capital spending—cash remaining after routine operations and investment in equipment—was about $9.9 billion in 2025 and $6.1 billion during first-half 2026. However, insurer cash flow varies with premium collections and claim timing.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is stronger, and buybacks are shrinking each owner’s share count.

Shareholders’ equity increased from $21.4 billion at 2024 year-end to $33.7 billion in June 2026, while debt declined from $8.09 billion to $7.49 billion. Allstate also held an $87.8 billion investment portfolio supporting future claims, so comparing debt only with cash understates insurer liquidity. During first-half 2026, the company spent $1.67 billion on buybacks and $541 million on dividends. Common shares fell 3.9% year over year to 253.5 million, meaning dilution was more than offset; 2025 stock-based compensation was only $123 million.

What could change the storyLasting policy growth supports upside, while storms and rising claim costs threaten normalized profits.

The bull case is measurable: second-quarter property and liability policies grew 2.6%, earned premiums rose 4.0%, and the underlying combined ratio was 79.4, meaning about $79 of claims and expenses for each $100 of premium before catastrophes and reserve changes. Sustaining roughly 80 with continued policy growth would make the shares look undervalued. The bear case is that $1.72 billion of quarterly catastrophe losses, worsening underlying homeowners claim costs, and fewer reserve releases push the recorded ratio from 86.6 toward 95–100. That would sharply reduce earnings and justify today’s apparent discount.

$261.41 price considered

AI: News

Strong second-quarter resultsProfit and policy growth improved together, while favorable investment markets added a less durable boost.

On August 5, Allstate reported second-quarter revenue of $18.6 billion, up 11.8%, and common-shareholder net income of $3.24 billion, up 55.9%. Adjusted income was $2.33 billion, or $8.99 per share, while underwriting income rose 56.7% to $2.01 billion. Reported profit also included $1.06 billion of investment and derivative gains. Shares gained 4.0% on August 6; the timing supports an earnings-related reaction, although it does not prove sole causation.

Heavy catastrophe billSecond-quarter storm losses remained heavy, but improved from last year’s unusually costly period.

On July 16, Allstate estimated June catastrophe losses at $563 million before tax, bringing the second-quarter total to $1.72 billion, versus $1.99 billion a year earlier. These claims directly reduce underwriting profit, particularly in homeowners insurance, and illustrate why recent earnings should not be projected unchanged. The shares rose 1.0% that day, but broader trading and expectations may also have influenced the move, so attributing the gain solely to this update would be uncertain.

New finance chiefA new finance chief adds capital-markets experience during a period of rapid capital returns.

Allstate announced on July 14 that Christian Lown would become chief financial officer effective August 3. He previously held the same role at CoStar, Freddie Mac and Navient and replaced interim finance chief John Dugenske. The appointment matters because Allstate is returning billions through dividends and buybacks while managing a large investment portfolio. Shares fell 2.4% that day and 4.3% the next, but price timing alone cannot establish that the leadership news caused those declines.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$67.69B	$64.11B	$57.09B	$51.41B	$50.60B	$41.91B	$41.54B	$39.81B	$39.41B	$37.40B	$35.65B	$35.24B	$34.51B	$33.31B	$32.65B	$31.40B	$32.01B	$29.39B	$36.77B
Net income	$10.28B	$4.67B	−$188.0M	−$1.29B	$1.61B	$5.58B	$4.85B	$2.16B	$3.55B	$1.88B	$2.17B	$2.85B	$2.28B	$2.31B	$787.0M	$911.0M	$854.0M	−$1.68B	$4.64B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$38.56	$17.22	-$1.20	-$5.14	$5.09	$17.53	$14.25	$5.78	$9.50	$4.72	$5.12	$6.37	$4.87	$4.71	$1.51	$1.69	$1.58	-$3.06	$7.80
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$38.06	$16.99	-$1.20	-$5.14	$5.01	$17.31	$14.03	$5.70	$9.35	$4.67	$5.05	$6.27	$4.81	$4.68	$1.50	$1.68	$1.58	-$3.06	$7.76

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)112$212.18M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	REDMOND ANDREADirector	SellCommon Stock	2.2K	$202.91	$451.5K	0
May 22, 2026Form 4	Prindiville Mark QOther	SellCommon Stock	1.6K	$216.27	$335.2K	27.6K
May 1, 2026Form 4	Rizzo MarioOther	SellCommon Stock	18.6K	$218.80	$4.06M	82.2K
Mar 16, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON THOMAS JChairman, President & CEO	SellCommon Stock	9.3K	$209.48	$1.95M	75.7K
Mar 16, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON THOMAS JChairman, President & CEO	SellCommon Stock	5.3K	$208.39	$1.11M	85.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

ALLSTATE CORP (ALL)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells