Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM)

Price$17.57Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 02:33 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look overvalued because today's valuation assumes an unusually successful Sangdong ramp and strong tungsten prices.

Almonty's market value is about $5.1 billion, more than ten times the roughly $490 million of annual Sangdong contract revenue management expects at current tungsten pricing. That figure is revenue before mining costs, taxes and expansion spending. Second-quarter adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and selected items was only C$17.6 million while Sangdong was still ramping. Even allowing for major future growth, the valuation leaves little margin for slower production, weaker pricing or higher costs.

Big pictureOperations are improving rapidly, but current profits remain immature and historical cash generation has been weak.

The supplied history shows 2025 revenue of C$32.5 million, an operating loss of C$36.2 million and C$19.1 million of operating cash outflow. Second-quarter 2026 revenue jumped to C$43.0 million and adjusted operating profit improved to C$17.6 million, while first-half operating cash flow turned positive at C$31.6 million. Reported quarterly net income of C$181.8 million was heavily boosted by noncash derivative and warrant revaluations, so it overstates underlying earning power.

Business strengthLong sales contracts and strategic assets are valuable, but rapid dilution and debt-funded liquidity weaken protection.

Sangdong's amended sales agreement runs 21 years, covers about 90% of Phase I production and raises contracted volume 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units. Phase I is designed for roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with a permitted expansion toward 1.2 million tonnes. Yet shares outstanding rose from 176.9 million at year-end 2024 to 288.1 million by June 2026. Cash reached C$1.23 billion largely after issuing US$800 million of convertible notes, so the apparent liquidity cushion is substantially financing-driven.

What could change the storyA smooth production ramp could justify more value, while weaker tungsten prices or delays would expose today's expectations.

The strongest bull case is Sangdong reaching full Phase I output, followed by Phase II expansion and future molybdenum production while Western buyers seek non-Chinese tungsten. The bear case is that mine ramp-up disappoints or today's exceptional tungsten pricing normalizes before cash returns justify the valuation. The US$800 million convertible notes initially convert around $27.40 per share, creating potential future dilution if the stock rises enough. The new buyback can offset about 5% of shares, but using financing-raised cash before mature free cash flow adds capital-allocation risk.

AI: News

Buyback authorizationA large repurchase plan signaled management confidence but commits capital before Sangdong reaches full output.

On August 17, Almonty authorized repurchases of up to 14.4 million shares, approximately 5% of shares then outstanding, for as much as US$300 million over three years. Shares closed about 8.4% higher that day, consistent with a positive reaction to the announcement. The program could offset some dilution, but its economic benefit depends on actual purchases and whether spending cash on shares produces better returns than mine expansion or debt reduction.

Second-quarter step-upRevenue and operating profit jumped as tungsten prices surged, while reported profit was boosted by noncash gains.

On August 11, Almonty reported second-quarter revenue of C$43.0 million, up 498% year over year, and adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and selected items of C$17.6 million versus a loss a year earlier. First-half operating cash flow was C$31.6 million. Reported net income reached C$181.8 million, but large noncash instrument-revaluation gains were a major contributor. Shares rose about 8.1% the following session; the timing suggests a positive response, though causation is uncertain.

Offtake terms expandedA longer, richer Sangdong sales contract improved revenue visibility before the mine completes its production ramp.

On July 14, Almonty extended its Sangdong agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders from 15 to 21 years, increased contracted volume by 40% and improved pricing by approximately 6.3%. Management estimates annual contracted revenue around US$490 million at current tungsten pricing, with the agreement covering about 90% of Phase I production. Shares gained about 5.2% that day but fell sharply the next session, so the market's lasting interpretation was clearly mixed.

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Revenue

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2023

2024

2025

Net income

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2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

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2023

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$32.5M	$28.8M	$22.5M	$24.8M
Gross profit	$2.4M	$2.0M	$1.1M	$2.5M
Gross margin	7.30%	6.83%	4.81%	10.27%
Operating expenses	$38.6M	$15.2M	$7.0M	$10.0M
Operating income	−$36.2M	−$13.3M	−$5.9M	−$7.4M
Operating margin	−111.45%	−46.00%	−26.10%	−29.88%
EBITDA	−$35.2M	−$12.1M	−$3.4M	−$9.0M
EBITDA margin	−108.24%	−42.12%	−15.05%	−36.19%
Net income	−$161.9M	−$16.3M	−$8.8M	−$14.5M
Net profit margin	−497.98%	−56.52%	−39.26%	−58.44%
Basic EPSper basic share	-CA$0.78	-CA$0.10	-CA$0.06	-CA$0.11
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-CA$0.78	-CA$0.10	-CA$0.06	-CA$0.11