Alumis Inc. (ALMS)

Price$11.31Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe valuation looks balanced because cash cushions losses while psoriasis success remains unproven commercially.

Using 128.5 million shares, Alumis’s market value is about $1.18 billion. After subtracting June cash and securities of $502.3 million and adding $36.4 million of debt, enterprise value—the value assigned to the operating business—is roughly $714 million. That is neither clearly cheap nor rich for a developer without product sales. Successful psoriasis trials support meaningful value, but approval and launch remain uncertain. Continuing losses and the failed overall lupus trial prevent an undervalued verdict.

Big pictureAlumis has no durable earnings, so one drug’s approval and sales will drive value.

Alumis generated only $24.1 million of collaboration revenue in 2025 while losing $453.8 million from operations and using $369.5 million of operating cash. During the first half of 2026, operating cash use remained $168.6 million. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was therefore deeply negative. Psoriasis demand is not especially tied to economic cycles; value instead swings around trial, regulatory, and launch milestones. Spending may fall after trials, but commercialization costs could replace it.

Business strengthStrong psoriasis results and ample cash offset a narrow pipeline and heavy spending.

The June balance sheet held $502.3 million in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities, versus $36.4 million of debt and $76.2 million of current liabilities. Management expects funding into the fourth quarter of 2027. More than 1,700 psoriasis patients entered two successful Phase 3 trials. Longer follow-up found 66% achieved at least 90% skin improvement and 47% achieved complete clearing in an integrated 890-patient analysis. However, envudeucitinib dominates the pipeline, making one medicine’s regulatory and commercial outcome unusually important.

What could change the storyApproval and strong uptake could unlock value, while delays or dilution would erode it.

Food and Drug Administration filing acceptance, approval, a useful label, and broad insurance coverage would strengthen the bull case; weak uptake would expose how much commercial success the valuation assumes. Capital has funded trials rather than dividends or repurchases. Alumis sold 20.3 million shares in January for $345.1 million gross, lifting shares outstanding from 104.7 million at year-end to 128.5 million by June. A $300 million market-sale program remained unused at June, yet the company says more capital will be needed. Further dilution or failure to reproduce the lupus subgroup would weaken value.

AI: News

Lupus trial missesLupus results failed overall, sharply reducing confidence that the lead drug can expand beyond psoriasis.

On September 1, the 408-patient, 48-week LUMUS trial missed its main and secondary goals across the overall lupus population. A prespecified group with a high interferon gene signature showed better responses, but Alumis did not disclose detailed subgroup effect sizes in the release and must discuss a Phase 3 path with regulators. Shares closed 56.6% lower that day. The timing strongly associates the move with the trial announcement, although price timing alone cannot establish exclusive causation.

Psoriasis durability strengthensLonger follow-up showed durable skin clearing, strengthening evidence behind the planned psoriasis application.

On August 10, Alumis reported that 54% of 773 continuously treated patients achieved complete skin clearing after 48 weeks, while 75% achieved at least 90% improvement. A stricter integrated analysis covering all 890 originally assigned patients produced rates of 47% and 66%, respectively. No new safety signal was reported. These results reduce concern that early benefits fade quickly and support the planned fourth-quarter regulatory application, although approval and commercial competitiveness remain untested.

Pivotal trials succeedTwo large psoriasis trials succeeded, turning the lead drug into a credible approval candidate.

On January 6, Alumis reported that both Phase 3 ONWARD trials met every primary and secondary goal. Across more than 1,700 participants, about 65% of treated patients achieved at least 90% skin improvement and more than 40% achieved complete clearing after 24 weeks, with reported superiority to apremilast. Reuters reported that the shares more than doubled. The strong controlled-trial evidence materially increased approval expectations, but it did not establish future pricing, insurance access, or sales.

Share sale extends runwayA timely share sale extended funding but spread future gains across many more shares.

Alumis closed a 20.3 million-share offering on January 9, shortly after the positive psoriasis results. The sale raised $345.1 million before fees and $323.8 million after offering costs. This financing substantially improved the company’s ability to complete regulatory work and prepare for commercialization. It also expanded the ownership base by roughly one-fifth versus year-end shares, meaning any future business value is divided among more shares. The offering’s independent effect on trading cannot be reliably separated from the trial news.

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Revenue

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$24.1M	$0	$0	$0
Research & development	$386.0M	$265.6M	$137.7M	$101.3M
Operating expenses	$477.9M	$300.8M	$158.2M	$113.8M
Operating income	−$453.8M	−$300.8M	−$158.2M	−$113.8M
Operating margin	−1,886.92%	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$450.3M	−$297.6M	−$156.9M	−$113.6M
EBITDA margin	−1,872.38%	—	—	—
Net income	−$243.3M	−$294.2M	−$155.0M	−$111.9M
Net profit margin	−1,011.75%	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$2.86	-$10.38	-$72.08	-$2.91
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$2.86	-$10.38	-$72.08	-$2.91

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ALMS
Holder	Shares held
AyurMaya Capital Management Company, LP	15.14M
BlackRock, Inc.	8.22M
FMR LLC	6.77M
Deep Track Capital, LP	6.35M
SAMSARA BIOCAPITAL, LLC	6.35M
Foresite Capital Management V, LLC	5.9M
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	5.2M
venBio Partners LLC	4.53M
Foresite Capital Management VI LLC	4.25M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.22M
Nextech Invest Ltd.	3.54M
Cormorant Asset Management, LP	3.29M
Saturn V Capital Management LP	2.92M
Octagon Capital Advisors LP	2.83M
Jupiter Topco LLC	2.36M
STATE STREET CORP	2.19M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.17M
MPM BIOIMPACT LLC	2.02M
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	2.01M
SR One Capital Management, LP	1.96M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys55$198.27M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jan 9, 2026Form 4	AKKARAJU SRINIVASDirector	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	588.2K	$17.00	$10.00M	1.85M
Jan 8, 2026Form 4	Foresite Labs, LLC +1TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	294.1K	$17.00	$5.00M	2.91M
Jan 8, 2026Form 4	Foresite Labs, LLC +1TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	117.6K	$17.00	$2.00M	5.70M
Jan 8, 2026Form 4	Foresite Labs Fund I, L.P. +8TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	294.1K	$17.00	$5.00M	2.91M
Jan 8, 2026Form 4	Foresite Labs Fund I, L.P. +8TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	117.6K	$17.00	$2.00M	5.70M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Alumis Inc. (ALMS)

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