Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)

Price$14.90Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-08 17:48 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe valuation looks balanced: growth is strong, but the cash yield remains thin.

Using roughly 124.9 million shares outstanding, the observed price implies a market value near $1.57 billion. Subtracting about $151.7 million of cash and securities after debt gives an enterprise value—market value less net liquidity—near $1.42 billion, or about 3.8 times trailing revenue of $374 million. Using the supplied history, trailing free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was roughly $29 million, placing the shares near 53 times that cash. That is not cheap, but 21% quarterly growth supports a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureSales are accelerating and contracted work is growing, but accounting losses still run deep.

Second-quarter revenue rose 21% to $100.9 million. Statsig supplied $6.5 million; simple subtraction implies roughly 13% growth without it, an inference rather than a company-reported organic rate. Annual recurring revenue—subscription sales expected to repeat—rose 22% to $410 million, while contracted work not yet recorded as revenue rose 35% to $483 million. These provide visibility and reduce cyclicality, although larger-customer sales cycles can still swing bookings. The quarterly net loss widened to $34.6 million from $24.7 million, leaving cash durability partly dependent on advance customer billings and stock compensation.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is usable, yet employee stock awards consume much of the economic gain.

At June 30, cash plus marketable securities were $161.4 million against $9.7 million of debt. Current assets of $220.4 million barely topped current liabilities of $210.4 million, though $163.5 million was deferred revenue—customer cash collected before sales are recorded—not borrowing. Buybacks retired 12.9 million shares for $89.5 million, but consumed about three years of recent annual cash generation. Meanwhile, trailing stock compensation was about $93.8 million, over three times roughly $29 million of free cash flow. The 20.8 million restricted shares and 9.4 million options outstanding represent substantial potential dilution, although some may never vest or exercise.

What could change the storyThe fair price depends on sustained high growth and much better profit conversion.

The strongest bull evidence is the 30% increase to 824 customers spending at least $100,000 annually and management’s raised 2026 revenue forecast of $407.2 million to $411.2 million. The bear evidence is equally concrete: second-quarter gross margin fell to 68% from 73%, hosting costs rose $4.9 million, and the operating loss widened to $35.2 million. The valuation needs high-teen growth plus free-cash-flow margins rising well beyond roughly 8%. Growth below about 15%, continued margin erosion, or stock awards remaining near one-quarter of revenue would weaken that case.

AI: News

Outlook raised after growthRevenue growth beat prior guidance, and management raised its full-year sales outlook.

On August 5, Amplitude reported second-quarter revenue of $100.9 million, up 21% and above its prior $96.9 million to $99.1 million forecast. Management raised full-year guidance to $407.2 million–$411.2 million from $397 million–$403 million. Contracted work rose 35%, and customers spending at least $100,000 annually increased 30%. The shares gained about 7.6% the following session. The timing suggests the report influenced the move, although it does not prove sole causation.

Statsig assets add growthThe Statsig deal broadened Amplitude’s platform and supplied a meaningful piece of recent growth.

Amplitude acquired selected Statsig assets on May 1, including customer contracts, backlog, the trade name, and a perpetual non-exclusive technology license. Statsig customers contributed about $6.5 million of second-quarter revenue and $17 million of annual recurring revenue added during the quarter. The trade-off is visible in costs: gross margin fell five percentage points, hosting expenses increased partly because of Statsig customers, and Amplitude recorded $3.2 million of acquisition-related costs. Investors therefore need to watch whether integration produces profitable expansion rather than purchased growth alone.

Large buyback executedBuybacks shrank the share count, but they also reduced the company’s cash safety cushion.

Amplitude disclosed that it spent $89.5 million during the first half of 2026 to retire 12.94 million shares, leaving $36.6 million authorized for additional purchases. The average repurchase cost was about $6.92 per share, substantially below the later observed market level. This allocation improved each remaining shareholder’s ownership percentage and partly offset employee awards. However, cash and marketable securities fell by roughly $91 million from December to June, while 20.8 million restricted shares and 9.4 million options remained outstanding.

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Revenue

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2020

2021

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2024

2025

Net income

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2025

Free cash flow

2019

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$343.2M	$299.3M	$276.3M	$238.1M	$167.3M	$102.5M	$68.4M
Gross profit	$253.9M	$222.3M	$204.4M	$167.6M	$115.5M	$72.0M	$46.3M
Gross margin	73.99%	74.30%	73.97%	70.41%	69.05%	70.25%	67.70%
Research & development	$97.6M	$97.6M	$90.1M	$80.6M	$48.3M	$26.1M	$19.0M
Operating expenses	$349.9M	$329.7M	$306.9M	$264.2M	$189.6M	$96.0M	$80.7M
Operating income	−$96.0M	−$107.4M	−$94.4M	−$96.6M	—	—	—
Operating margin	−27.97%	−35.88%	−34.16%	−40.56%	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$86.4M	−$101.3M	−$88.8M	−$91.9M	—	—	—
EBITDA margin	−25.17%	−33.84%	−32.13%	−38.60%	—	—	—
Net income	−$88.5M	−$94.3M	−$90.4M	−$93.4M	−$75.0M	−$24.6M	−$33.5M
Net profit margin	−25.80%	−31.52%	−32.71%	−39.22%	−44.83%	−23.98%	−49.00%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.67	-$0.76	-$0.77	-$0.84	-$1.46	-$0.98	-$1.38
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.67	-$0.76	-$0.77	-$0.84	-$1.46	-$0.98	-$1.38

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

10.96%of listed shares

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP11.09M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of AMPL
Holder	% owned
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	10.96%11.09M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	9.93%10.04M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	6.01%6.08M shares
FMR LLC	5.91%5.98M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.89%3.94M shares
Grady Patrick W	≈2.85%2.88M shares
SC US (TTGP), LTD.	2.77%2.8M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.57%2.6M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.45%2.48M shares
Trigran Investments, Inc.	2.29%2.32M shares
Crook Nathaniel Glenn	≈2.01%2.03M shares
HANSEN THOMAS NEERGAARD	≈1.82%1.85M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	1.76%1.78M shares
Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd.	1.56%1.58M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.49%1.51M shares
Casey Andrew	≈1.42%1.44M shares
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	1.39%1.41M shares
Skates Spenser	≈1.27%1.28M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.14%1.15M shares
GAGNON SECURITIES LLC	1.04%1.06M shares

Percentages use 101.16M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys2$539.5K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)27$8.35M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 12, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wong CatherineDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	7.5K	$6.79	$50.6K	111.5K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4/A · 10b5-1	Liu CurtisChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	22.8K	$8.03	$183.0K	1.00M
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Liu CurtisChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	22.2K	$8.03	$178.3K	1.00M
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Liu CurtisChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	17.6K	$8.12	$142.8K	1.07M
Mar 6, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Liu CurtisChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	33.2K	$8.01	$265.9K	603.8K