Aris Mining Corp (ARIS)

Price$17.50Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-05 01:10 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe shares look undervalued if recent earnings hold, but gold prices make that a demanding assumption.

At the observed market value, Aris is worth roughly $4.1 billion. Trailing twelve-month adjusted net earnings, which remove selected non-operating items, were $386 million, implying about 10.5 times earnings; reported net income of $285 million implies about 14 times. Net debt was only $44 million, so the business value is close to the equity value, and roughly six times trailing adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Those multiples support an undervalued view, but they depend heavily on unusually strong gold prices.

Big pictureCash generation has surged, but heavy expansion spending still absorbs most of what operations produce.

Revenue rose from $511 million in 2024 to $928 million in 2025, while operating cash flow climbed from $141 million to $373 million. Capital spending also increased from $181 million to $244 million, leaving about $129 million of simple free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital investment. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow reached $245 million, yet cash left after growth and expansion spending was only about $4 million. The core mines are funding growth, but current cash durability is not yet fully proven through a lower gold-price cycle.

Business strengthCash nearly matches debt, while current mine profits can fund the next major expansion.

At June 30, Aris held $426 million of cash against about $470 million of debt, leaving only $44 million of net debt. Marmato still required about $118 million to reach first gold from its new plant; management expected a final $42 million streaming payment, leaving roughly $76 million to fund from cash and operating cash flow. That is manageable relative to liquidity. If Segovia and Marmato reach their planned steady rates, management expects roughly 500,000 ounces of annual gold production, which would broaden cash generation beyond the current production base.

What could change the storyMine expansions could unlock major value, while gold prices and dilution remain the clearest threats.

The bull case is substantial: published after-tax project value estimates, which discount future project cash flows, are $2.7 billion for Soto Norte using $2,600 gold and $1.8 billion for Toroparu using $3,000 gold, before considering the producing mines. The bear case is dilution and cyclicality. Shares outstanding rose from 137.6 million in 2023 to 205.5 million in 2025, and another six million shares may become payable after Soto Norte licensing. A new 37-month shelf preserves financing flexibility. Lower gold prices would also compress today's unusually wide mining margins.

AI: News

Strong Q2 cash generationSecond-quarter results showed strong earnings and cash while major expansion projects stayed funded.

On July 29, Aris reported second-quarter production of 73,710 ounces, revenue of $330 million, and net earnings of $94 million. Cash stood at $426 million and net debt at just $44 million after substantial project investment. Marmato remained on schedule for first gold from its new processing plant in the fourth quarter. These figures matter because they show the operating mines are currently financing growth while keeping leverage low, although Segovia costs rose and results still benefited from very high realized gold prices.

New shelf filingAris preserved access to future financing, creating flexibility but also a possible dilution overhang.

On July 30, Aris filed a new 37-month base shelf covering common shares, debt, convertible securities, warrants, subscription receipts, and units. The company said it had no current plans to issue securities and noted that neither it nor its subsidiaries had completed an equity financing since February 2021. The filing therefore does not mean dilution is imminent. Still, it matters because large growth projects may eventually require outside capital, and any future share issuance could reduce each existing shareholder's ownership and earnings per share.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

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2023

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$927.7M	$510.6M	$447.7M	$400.0M
Gross profit	$513.2M	$195.8M	$185.9M	$204.1M
Gross margin	55.32%	38.36%	41.53%	51.04%
Operating expenses	$153.8M	$78.4M	$77.1M	$142.6M
Operating income	$359.4M	$117.4M	$108.8M	$61.5M
Operating margin	38.74%	23.00%	24.31%	15.37%
EBITDA	$299.8M	$140.7M	$122.2M	$119.5M
EBITDA margin	32.32%	27.56%	27.30%	29.89%
Net income	$79.4M	$23.3M	$11.4M	−$4.9M
Net profit margin	8.56%	4.56%	2.55%	−1.21%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.42	$0.16	$0.08	-$0.04
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.41	$0.14	$0.08	-$0.25