Accelerant Holdings (ARX)

Price$19.88Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 05:06 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe market already prices in a very high chance that the cash takeover closes.

Recent trading sits only about 3% below Thoma Bravo’s agreed cash consideration. If the pre-announcement close is used as a rough failure value, that narrow spread implies roughly a 92% chance of completion before allowing for time value. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027 and still needs shareholder and regulatory approvals. That leaves modest upside but meaningful deal-break downside, so the current price looks fair rather than clearly cheap.

Big pictureGrowth is strong, but cash generation has become less steady than reported profit.

Revenue rose from $603 million in 2024 to $913 million in 2025, then reached $630 million in the first half of 2026. The 2025 headline loss was distorted by a $1.38 billion non-cash award distribution tied to the initial public offering, so it overstates ongoing weakness. Still, cash is uneven: operating cash flow fell from $786 million in 2024 to $445 million in 2025, then turned negative by $90 million in the first half of 2026, largely from reinsurance timing and trust-structure changes.

Business strengthA large cash cushion and growing fee activity reduce strain, but insurance cycles still matter.

At June 2026, cash and equivalents were about $1.57 billion against roughly $120 million of debt, leaving about $1.45 billion of net cash. Not all is spare: insurance operations need liquidity for claims and reinsurance settlements. The company said 96% of its investment and cash portfolio was in cash or fixed-income and short-term assets. Second-quarter exchange written premium grew 23%, while retained underwriting was 13% of trailing-year exchange premium, so claim cycles still matter; growing direct third-party business should make more earnings fee-based.

What could change the storyDeal approval now matters most, while dilution and insurance cash timing remain important watchpoints.

The bull case is straightforward: the merger closes, turning today’s small discount into cash, with an extra payment accruing at 6% a year if specified insurance approvals delay closing. The bear case is deal failure, which could send the shares back toward pre-deal levels. If that happens, dilution matters again: in the first half of 2026 Accelerant repurchased 5.55 million shares for $77 million while recording about $52 million of share-based employee pay. At June, roughly 40 million employee options and 6.4 million unvested restricted share units remained.

AI: News

Thoma Bravo buyoutAccelerant agreed to a cash takeover that sharply lifted the stock and now anchors its value.

On August 13, Accelerant signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo in an all-cash transaction valued at more than $4 billion in enterprise value. The consideration represented a 49% premium to the prior day’s close, and Reuters reported the shares jumped nearly 44% in early trading. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, so deal completion now dominates the stock’s near-term value.

Strong second quarterSecond-quarter growth and profit improved sharply, supporting the strategic value seen by the buyer.

Also on August 13, Accelerant reported exchange written premium of $1.32 billion, up 23% year over year, and adjusted profit of $70 million, up 165%. A company-defined operating profit measure before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $93.1 million with a 30.6% margin. Third-party direct premium reached 47% of volume. Because the takeover announcement came the same morning, the day’s stock move cannot reliably be separated between earnings and the deal.

First-quarter beatFirst-quarter results beat expectations and raised growth guidance before the takeover changed the valuation framework.

On May 13, Accelerant reported adjusted earnings of $0.17 per share and revenue of $273.3 million, with exchange written premium up 16%. Management guided full-year exchange written premium to at least $5.2 billion and a company-defined operating profit measure before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to at least $285 million. Investing.com reported the shares rose about 2.9% after the release, making this a clearer earnings-driven reaction than the later August move.

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Revenue

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$912.9M	$602.6M	$344.0M	$213.1M
Net income	−$1.35B	$22.9M	−$64.1M	−$91.7M
Net profit margin	−147.35%	3.80%	−18.63%	−43.03%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$7.49	$0.16	-$0.29	-$0.55
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$7.49	$0.14	-$0.29	-$0.55

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Ownership data is not available for this listing yet.

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys7$1.90M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)12$250.56M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 29, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RADKE JEFFREY LCo-Founder, CEO	SellClass A Common Shares · indirect	80.0K	$12.87	$1.03M	28.10M
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	ONeill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer	SellClass A Common Shares · indirect	73.5K	$13.18	$968.7K	6.90M
Jun 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	ONeill Francis JamesCo-Founder, Chief U/W Officer	SellClass A Common Shares · indirect	73.5K	$13.06	$959.9K	6.98M
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Hasley NancyDirector	SellClass A Common Shares	35.0K	$13.11	$458.9K	1.36M
Jun 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RADKE JEFFREY LCo-Founder, CEO	SellClass A Common Shares · indirect	80.0K	$13.11	$1.05M	28.18M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Accelerant Holdings (ARX)

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