AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)

Price$62.42Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-09 22:33 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price assumes years of explosive growth before profits and cash generation are proven.

Using about 389 million Class A-equivalent economic interests from the latest filing, the observed price implies roughly a $24 billion equity value. Trailing twelve-month revenue is only about $115 million, making equity value about 209 times annual sales; there is no useful earnings multiple because losses remain large. Against the $150–$200 million 2026 revenue guide, that is still roughly 121–161 times sales. Illustratively, earning 10% annually for five years while valuing the company at eight times sales then would require about $4.9 billion of annual revenue—an extremely demanding growth path.

Big pictureRevenue is finally growing, but the network still consumes far more cash than it produces.

Revenue reached $31.5 million in Q2, up from $1.2 million a year earlier, but common-stockholder loss was $230.9 million. In the first half, operating cash use was $145.2 million and capital spending was about $859 million. That puts rough free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—near negative $1.0 billion. Cash and equivalents were $2.29 billion versus about $2.97 billion of debt in the supplied history. This is not yet a classic economic-cycle business; near-term results are lumpy because contract milestones, manufacturing, and launch timing dominate.

Business strengthTechnical proof and major carrier relationships are real, but commercial scale remains mostly ahead.

AST has demonstrated 98.9-megabit-per-second peak downloads to ordinary smartphones and launched six next-generation satellites in 50 days, reaching 13 spacecraft in orbit. More than 60 mobile-network partners collectively cover over 3 billion subscribers, while contracted commercial and U.S. government backlog is about $1.3 billion. The balance sheet held about $2.7 billion of cash plus restricted cash at quarter-end, and July financing lifted pro forma liquidity above $3.7 billion. Management says funding covers manufacturing and launch of roughly 90 satellites. The strongest bull case is converting technical proof and carrier distribution into large recurring service revenue.

What could change the storyFaster service revenue or repeated launch setbacks could quickly move the valuation case in opposite directions.

The thesis improves if beta service becomes paid, backlog converts on schedule, and multi-billion-dollar annual sales become credible while operating cash use falls. It weakens if deployment costs exceed management’s $21–$23 million per Block 2 satellite estimate or launch failures recur; BlueBird 7 caused a $125.9 million loss after insurance. Financing supplied $3.8 billion in 2025 and $1.1 billion in first-half 2026, while the filing lists share sales, share-based payments, warrants, and employee awards as dilution sources. July’s convertible raise used hedges to reduce modeled dilution but added debt.

AI: News

Second-quarter resultsRevenue jumped from a tiny base, but losses stayed large and the second half must accelerate sharply.

On August 10, AST reported Q2 revenue of $31.5 million versus $1.2 million a year earlier and a $230.9 million loss attributable to common stockholders. First-half revenue was $46.3 million, so reaching the unchanged $150–$200 million 2026 guide requires roughly $104–$154 million in the second half. Backlog reached about $1.3 billion. Investor’s Business Daily reported that revenue and loss both missed consensus expectations, while the next-morning share reaction was modestly positive, making the market response mixed.

Three more BlueBirds launchThree successful launches expanded the network and reduced some doubt about manufacturing and deployment pace.

On August 5, BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 launched successfully, following the June launch of BlueBirds 8–10. AST said this brought its in-orbit network to 13 spacecraft, with BlueBirds 14–16 preparing for the next mission and production advancing through at least satellite 42. The next-generation arrays are more than three times larger than Block 1 and target peak data rates near 200 megabits per second. That progress directly improves the odds of reaching the satellite counts needed for broader commercial coverage.

Convertible debt raiseA large financing strengthened liquidity but reminded investors that network expansion still depends on outside capital.

In July, AST completed $1.15 billion of 1.625% convertible notes due in 2034. The filing shows about $1.13 billion of net proceeds, with roughly $111 million spent on capped-call hedges designed to reduce future share dilution. Management says the hedge lifts the effective conversion level and keeps effective dilution below 2%. MarketWatch reported the stock fell 17% after the financing plan was announced. The raise lowers near-term funding risk but increases debt and highlights the network’s capital intensity.

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Revenue

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2020

2021

2022

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$70.9M	$13.8M	$0	$13.8M	$12.4M	$6.0M	—
Gross profit	$35.7M	$4.4M	$0	$7.1M	$4.8M	$2.9M	—
Gross margin	50.34%	31.96%	—	51.44%	39.03%	49.30%	—
Research & development	$28.1M	$28.8M	$47.5M	$45.6M	$23.4M	$1.0M	—
Operating expenses	$358.6M	$247.2M	$222.4M	$159.6M	$91.6M	$27.3M	$384,857
Operating income	−$287.7M	−$242.8M	−$222.4M	−$145.8M	—	−$1.1M	−$384,857
Operating margin	−405.70%	−1,755.96%	—	−1,054.35%	—	−18.85%	—
EBITDA	−$369.9M	−$443.0M	−$162.0M	−$97.6M	—	−$237,693	—
EBITDA margin	−521.63%	−3,204.20%	—	−705.74%	—	−3.98%	—
Net income	−$341.9M	−$300.1M	−$87.6M	−$31.6M	−$30.6M	−$52.0M	$655,679
Net profit margin	−482.16%	−2,170.58%	—	−228.86%	−246.30%	−870.80%	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.34	-$1.94	-$1.07	-$0.58	-$0.37	-$6.13	-$0.04
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.34	-$1.94	-$1.07	-$0.58	-$0.37	-$6.13	$17,600,000.00

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈26.20%of listed shares

Avellan Abel Antonio78.54M shares · May 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ASTS
Holder	% owned
Avellan Abel Antonio	≈26.20%78.54M shares
Mikitani Hiroshi	≈10.35%31.02M shares
Rakuten Group, Inc.	5.17%15.51M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	5.10%15.27M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.45%13.33M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.18%12.52M shares
Alphabet Inc.	2.98%8.94M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.44%7.32M shares
UBS Group AG	2.20%6.6M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.18%6.53M shares
AT&T Venture Investments, LLC / AT&T INC.	≈2.09%6.26M shares
Marex Group Ltd	2.08%6.22M shares
Vodafone Ventures Ltd	1.83%5.47M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.70%5.11M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.29%3.87M shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	1.20%3.58M shares
NORGES BANK	1.11%3.33M shares
Clear Street Group Inc.	0.81%2.42M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	0.73%2.19M shares
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	0.57%1.7M shares

Percentages use 299.73M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys10$317.1K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)32$469.92M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 11, 2026Form 4	Johnson Andrew MartinCFO and CLO	SellClass A Common Stock	45.8K	$93.81	$4.30M	503.6K
Jun 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Yao HuiwenChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	40.0K	$96.37	$3.85M	34.8K
May 20, 2026Form 4	Johnson Andrew MartinCFO and CLO	SellClass A Common Stock	5.0K	$90.25	$451.3K	565.8K
May 13, 2026Form 4	Torres Julio A.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	15.0K	$76.34	$1.15M	43.2K
Apr 15, 2026Form 4	Rakuten Group, Inc. +2TenPercentOwner	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	1.35M	$86.22	$116.40M	27.98M