Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)

Price$5.39Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-29 21:27 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price already assumes Aurora turns a tiny revenue base into a very large business.

Using about 2.0 billion shares outstanding, the observed price implies an equity value near $11.6 billion. That is roughly 770 times management’s $15 million midpoint for 2026 revenue and about 145 times its targeted $80 million year-end annualized trucking-service revenue. Aurora held about $1.22 billion of cash and short-term investments, so the equity market still assigns above $10 billion beyond those liquid assets. At an illustrative five times annual sales, that excess value would require roughly $2.1 billion of revenue—far beyond today’s demonstrated scale. That supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureAurora is proving driverless trucking works commercially, but losses and cash use still dominate the numbers.

Revenue was only $3 million in the first half of 2026, while the net loss reached $493 million. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was negative about $440 million, versus roughly negative $301 million a year earlier, so cash durability has not yet improved. Aurora expects fees tied to miles driven, which means freight volumes and truck use matter directly; a freight downturn can slow revenue even if the technology performs. The bull case is real commercial operation, but current economics remain far from self-funding.

Business strengthA strong liquid balance sheet buys time, but shareholders are paying for that runway through dilution.

Liquidity is the main source of downside protection: June 2026 cash plus short-term investments totaled about $1.22 billion, versus $214 million of total liabilities. At management’s expected average cash use of $190-$220 million per quarter, that is roughly five to six quarters of spending before allowing for a minimum cash cushion. The trade-off is dilution. Shares outstanding rose about 9% from June 2025, and Aurora sold 33 million shares in the first half of 2026 for $229 million net. Stock compensation was another $106 million. Capital allocation currently favors funding growth over shareholder payouts.

What could change the storyThe valuation needs rapid fleet growth, successful customer adoption, and a lower need for outside funding.

The strongest bull test is whether Aurora exits 2026 with more than 200 driverless trucks and roughly $80 million of annualized trucking-service revenue, then converts customers to its driver-service model in 2027. The second-generation hardware is expected to cut hardware cost by more than 50%, which could improve gross profit, meaning revenue left after direct service costs. The bear test is near-term: first-half revenue was only $3 million against full-year guidance of $14-$16 million, with more than half expected in the fourth quarter. Missing that back-loaded ramp, or keeping cash use above guidance, would make further dilution more likely.

AI: News

Second-generation fleet launchAurora put its second-generation driverless trucks into service, moving from demonstration toward scaled commercial operations.

On July 22, Aurora launched International LT trucks carrying its second-generation driverless hardware. Management then said it expected 20-25 of these trucks operating by the end of the third quarter and more than 200 total driverless trucks by year-end. Roush is expected to reach a 1,000-truck annual production pace in October. Charger Logistics and Value Truck also signed deployment agreements. The value mechanism is straightforward: more reliable, cheaper hardware and more deployed trucks create the miles that can turn technology proof into revenue.

Second-quarter resultsAurora kept its revenue goal but showed heavier losses and cash use as commercial scaling accelerated.

On July 29, Aurora reported second-quarter revenue of $2 million, a $270 million net loss, and $225 million of operating cash use. It maintained 2026 revenue guidance of $14-$16 million and said year-end trucking-service revenue could run at roughly $80 million annually. Shares fell about 5.8% including after-hours trading, according to Investing.com. That reaction cannot be assigned to one figure alone, but the report sharpened the trade-off between faster deployment and continued heavy spending.

Uber trims its stakeUber sold a large Aurora stake again, adding fresh share supply and raising questions about partner conviction.

On August 17, Uber sold 72 million Aurora Class A shares in a block transaction worth roughly $472 million, reducing its Class A position to about 186.5 million shares, or 10.9%. Aurora shares fell 11.8% the next session on unusually heavy volume. The timing is consistent with temporary selling pressure from the block, but it does not prove causation. The filing did not announce a change to the commercial relationship, so the main investment effect is added share supply and uncertainty over whether Uber may sell more later.

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Revenue

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Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$3.0M	$0	$0	$68.0M	$82.0M	$0	$19.6M
Gross profit	−$14.0M	$0	$0	—	$82.5M	—	—
Gross margin	−466.67%	—	—	—	100.66%	—	—
Research & development	$745.0M	$676.0M	$716.0M	$677.0M	$697.0M	$179.0M	$107.4M
Operating expenses	$887.0M	$786.0M	$835.0M	$1.92B	$813.0M	$218.0M	$133.1M
Operating income	−$901.0M	−$786.0M	−$835.0M	−$1.85B	−$731.0M	−$218.0M	−$113.5M
Operating margin	−30,033.33%	—	—	−2,723.53%	−891.46%	—	−579.14%
EBITDA	−$871.0M	−$765.0M	−$814.0M	−$1.83B	−$715.0M	−$215.0M	−$111.7M
EBITDA margin	−29,033.33%	—	—	−2,691.18%	−871.95%	—	−569.77%
Net income	−$816.0M	−$748.0M	−$796.0M	−$1.72B	−$755.0M	−$214.0M	−$94.1M
Net profit margin	−27,200.00%	—	—	−2,533.82%	−920.73%	—	−479.96%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.44	-$0.46	-$0.60	-$1.51	-$1.22	-$0.79	-$0.37
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.44	-$0.46	-$0.60	-$1.51	-$1.22	-$0.79	-$0.37

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

17.59%of listed shares

T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.299.42M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of AUR
Holder	% owned
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	17.59%299.42M shares
Uber Technologies, Inc	15.19%258.47M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	12.57%213.92M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.90%83.37M shares
Capital Research Global Investors	4.88%83.05M shares
Capital International Investors	4.56%77.64M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.10%69.72M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.02%68.47M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	3.24%55.18M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.38%23.52M shares
STATE STREET CORP	1.35%22.92M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.34%22.86M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	1.31%22.37M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	1.07%18.22M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	0.97%16.53M shares
XN LP	0.91%15.45M shares
Daiwa Securities Group Inc.	0.84%14.37M shares
SB INVESTMENT ADVISERS (UK) LTD	0.84%14.28M shares
UBS Group AG	0.74%12.59M shares
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	0.74%12.53M shares

Percentages use 1.7B shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$2.49M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)47$1.76B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 11, 2026Form 4	Wehner David M.Director	BuyClass A Common Stock	82.5K	$6.04	$498.3K	246.5K
Jun 2, 2026Form 4	Uber Technologies, IncTenPercentOwner	SellClass A Common Stock	67.50M	$7.10	$479.25M	258.47M
May 28, 2026Form 4	Hoffman ReidDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	60.1K	$7.27	$437.1K	0
May 28, 2026Form 4	Hoffman ReidDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	60.1K	$7.27	$437.1K	0
May 28, 2026Form 4	Hoffman ReidDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	1.08M	$7.27	$7.87M	0