AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkStrong growth supports today’s price, but there is little protection against disappointment.

At $342.48, American Express trades for 20.8 times its $16.48 of trailing earnings per share and about 19.5 times management’s $17.60 midpoint for 2026. This multiple means buyers pay $19.50 for each dollar of expected annual profit. For the stock to return 10% annually over five years at a similar 19-times valuation, earnings must approach $29 per share, roughly 10.5% yearly growth before dividends. That looks achievable, but not conservative enough to call the shares undervalued.

Big pictureEarnings and cash have grown strongly, although past recessions reveal meaningful sensitivity.

SEC-derived figures show revenue rising from $22.0 billion in 2020 to $41.3 billion in 2025, while net income climbed from $3.1 billion to $10.8 billion. First-half 2026 net income increased 11% to $6.1 billion, and earnings per share rose 14% to $8.81. Operating cash flow minus capital spending—a rough measure of cash remaining after investment—was $7.1 billion. Because American Express also lends money, that cash measure moves with loan growth and funding. The 2020 profit collapse demonstrates real economic sensitivity.

Business strengthStrong credit, ample capital, and fewer shares reinforce the company’s durable advantages.

At June 2026, American Express held $45.2 billion of cash, $59.0 billion of debt and $34.3 billion of shareholder equity. Debt largely funds card lending, so simple net debt overstates financial strain. June balances at least 30 days late were only 1.1% for United States consumers and 1.4% for small businesses. The minimum 2.5% stress-capital buffer supports continued payouts. First-half buybacks totaled $4.2 billion versus $358 million of share-based pay, helping reduce shares from 805 million in 2020 to 675 million.

What could change the storyContinued premium-card growth supports the price, while rising customer costs could undermine it.

The bull case strengthens if 2026 earnings exceed $17.90 per share, spending remains near double-digit growth and late payments stay around present levels. Three million cards were added during the second quarter, with three-quarters charging annual fees. The bear case is that competition for wealthy customers forces richer rewards and advertising: second-quarter expenses rose 12%, and management kept its profit forecast unchanged despite raising its revenue outlook. Earnings below $17.30 or sustained increases in delinquencies would challenge the growth assumptions embedded in today’s valuation.

$342.48 price considered

AI: News

Growth beats, costs worryQuarterly profit beat expectations, but unchanged profit guidance exposed the cost of pursuing growth.

On July 24, American Express reported second-quarter net income of $3.11 billion, up from $2.89 billion, and earnings of $4.53 per share versus the $4.40 analyst estimate reported by FactSet. Management raised expected 2026 revenue growth to 10% but retained its $17.30–$17.90 profit range as expenses rose 12%. Shares closed 4.3% lower. Reporting connected the reaction to unchanged profit guidance and higher customer-acquisition spending, although trading movements never prove a single cause.

TheFork acquisition plannedThe proposed purchase expands European dining access, but the price demands substantial strategic benefits.

On June 15, American Express agreed to acquire TheFork from Tripadvisor for $700 million in cash, subject to consultation, regulatory approval and other conditions. TheFork produced $232 million of trailing revenue and $28 million of adjusted operating profit, putting the price near three times revenue and 25 times that profit measure. Its network covers more than 50,000 restaurants across 11 European countries and would lift American Express’s bookable dining network to roughly 75,000 venues. No reliable American Express price reaction was isolated.

Minimum capital buffer retainedThe stress-test outcome preserved room for dividends and buybacks despite severe hypothetical losses.

American Express announced on June 25 that its required stress-capital buffer would remain at the regulatory minimum of 2.5% through September 2027. A stress-capital buffer is extra shareholder funding regulators require to absorb losses during a severe downturn. The company had returned $8.7 billion through common dividends and buybacks during the year ended March 2026 and raised its quarterly dividend 16% to $0.95. The result supports future distributions, though no reliable same-day stock reaction could be attributed specifically to it.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$41.30B	$38.83B	$37.22B	$34.22B	$27.72B	$21.97B	$28.16B	$26.61B	$24.78B	$24.23B	—	—	—	—	—	$27.82B	$24.52B	$28.36B	—
Operating expenses	$53.18B	$47.87B	$45.08B	$41.09B	$33.11B	$27.06B	$31.55B	$28.86B	$26.69B	$25.37B	$22.89B	$23.15B	$23.15B	$23.39B	$21.89B	$19.41B	$16.18B	$18.99B	$17.76B
Operating income	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$2.84B	$3.58B	$5.69B
EBITDAderived	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$3.91B	$4.29B	$6.34B
Net income	$10.83B	$10.13B	$8.37B	$7.51B	$8.06B	$3.13B	$6.76B	$6.92B	$2.75B	$5.38B	$5.16B	$5.88B	$5.36B	$4.48B	$4.93B	$4.06B	$2.13B	$2.70B	$4.01B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$15.41	$14.04	$11.23	$9.86	$10.04	$3.77	$8.00	—	—	—	—	—	$4.91	$3.91	$4.14	$3.37	$1.54	$2.33	$3.40
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$15.38	$14.01	$11.21	$9.85	$10.02	$3.77	$7.99	—	—	—	—	—	$4.88	$3.89	$4.12	$3.35	$1.54	$2.32	$3.34

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys8$1.00M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)66$275.18M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	McNeal Glenda GChief Partner Officer	SellCommon Stock	7.0K	$339.36	$2.39M	9.7K
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Joabar RaymondGrp. Pres., Global Comm. Serv.	SellCommon Stock · indirect	16	$301.27	$4.8K	1.5K
Mar 6, 2026Form 4	Lieberman Quinn JessicaEVP - Controller	SellCommon Stock	3.0K	$300.02	$909.7K	258
Mar 2, 2026Form 4	Joabar RaymondGrp. Pres., Global Comm. Serv.	SellCommon Stock · indirect	24	$309.85	$7.4K	1.5K
Feb 19, 2026Form 4	Joabar RaymondGrp. Pres., Global Comm. Serv.	SellCommon Stock	3.3K	$341.95	$1.14M	8.7K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells