BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)

Price$2.92Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 07:35 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe valuation assumes rapid growth despite persistent losses, cash burn, and uncertain contract timing.

BigBear.ai’s equity is valued near $1.38 billion. Subtracting $409.8 million of cash and bond investments and adding $17.7 million of face-value debt gives an enterprise value—business value after liquid funds and debt—near $1.0 billion. That equals roughly six to seven times management’s $135 million–$165 million 2026 sales outlook. Because earnings and free cash flow remain negative, this valuation requires much faster growth and a credible path to cash profits; current results do not yet provide either.

Big pictureGrowth has returned, but the core business still loses money and burns cash.

Revenue fell 19% in 2025, then rose 6% to $71.2 million in the first half of 2026. Ask Sage supplied $12.2 million; without it, reported sales would have remained below the prior-year period, showing acquisition-led rather than clearly organic growth. Gross margin improved to 33.4% from 23.1%, but operating loss remained $52.8 million. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was negative $40.8 million, triple the prior-year outflow, so earnings and cash durability remain unproven.

Business strengthGovernment demand and Ask Sage improve prospects, but backlog and acquired assets offer limited protection.

The balance sheet is the clearest strength: $409.8 million of cash and bond investments versus $17.7 million of face-value debt, providing time to fund losses. Backlog rose 9% from year-end to $269.6 million, and Ask Sage lifted quarterly gross margin to 32.8%. Yet federal contracts can be delayed, terminated, or left unfunded; three customers represented 35% of second-quarter sales. The $272.1 million Ask Sage purchase produced $12.2 million of first-half revenue and left $238.6 million of goodwill, so it must scale materially to justify its cost.

What could change the storyProfitable growth could justify the premium, while more share sales would weaken each holder.

The bull case needs Ask Sage and new defense contracts to lift annual sales well beyond the 2026 range while turning operating and free cash flow positive. A practical checkpoint is sustained double-digit growth with quarterly cash burn moving toward zero. The bear case is continued contract-timing swings and overhead consuming margin gains. Shares outstanding rose 91%, from 251.6 million at 2024 year-end to 479.5 million, and the new 100 million-share program could add another 21%, reducing each existing share’s claim unless proceeds create matching value.

AI: News

Growth returned in second quarterSales and margins improved, but heavier overhead kept the business far from profitability.

On July 30, BigBear.ai reported second-quarter revenue of $36.7 million, up 13%, with gross margin rising to 32.8% from 25.0%. Ask Sage drove the revenue gain, while more than 20 contract wins helped backlog reach $269.6 million. Management maintained 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million–$165 million. However, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—a measure excluding several costs—were negative $11.6 million, and selling and administrative costs rose $10.4 million.

Large share-sale authorizationA new share-sale program creates substantial dilution risk despite already strong liquidity.

On July 31, the company authorized sales of up to 100 million shares through Jefferies, equal to about 21% of the 479.5 million shares then outstanding. The filing permits sales over time and does not mean all shares were issued. Proceeds could finance losses or acquisitions, but dilution lowers each existing share’s ownership unless the money earns adequate returns. The decision follows roughly $637 million of gross share sales during 2025, making capital issuance central to the investment case.

Defense platform expandedThe Ask Sage integration opened more secure deployment options, widening its government sales opportunity.

On July 15, BigBear.ai expanded its generative artificial-intelligence platform with hardware that can run disconnected from the cloud, dedicated customer environments, and a bring-your-own-model option expected during the third quarter. It also began phasing out the Ask Sage name for Department of War customers. These features address classified and field settings where cloud access is unsuitable, potentially widening demand. No contract value or revenue commitment was disclosed, so the announcement is an opportunity signal rather than proof of financial traction.

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Revenue

2019

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2019
Revenue	$127.7M	$158.2M	$155.2M	$155.0M	$145.6M	$73.6M
Gross profit	$28.5M	$45.2M	$40.6M	$43.0M	$34.1M	$17.5M
Gross margin	22.31%	28.58%	26.17%	27.74%	23.40%	23.76%
Research & development	$16.8M	$10.9M	$5.0M	$8.4M	$6.0M	$110,000
Operating expenses	$242.4M	$178.6M	$79.6M	$153.5M	$112.5M	$11.1M
Operating income	−$213.9M	−$133.4M	−$39.0M	−$110.5M	−$78.5M	$6.4M
Operating margin	−167.54%	−84.32%	−25.16%	−71.30%	−53.90%	8.67%
EBITDA	−$198.6M	−$121.5M	−$31.1M	−$102.8M	−$71.2M	$6.4M
EBITDA margin	−155.57%	−76.81%	−20.06%	−66.30%	−48.92%	8.74%
Net income	−$293.9M	−$295.5M	−$70.7M	−$111.4M	−$123.6M	$6.2M
Net profit margin	−230.21%	−186.78%	−45.54%	−71.84%	−84.87%	8.48%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.82	-$1.27	-$0.47	-$0.87	-$1.15	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.82	-$1.27	-$0.47	-$0.87	-$1.15	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.46%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.40.57M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of BBAI
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	8.46%40.57M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.42%21.2M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.59%12.4M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.54%12.19M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.25%10.77M shares
UBS Group AG	2.02%9.69M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	1.71%8.18M shares
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	1.21%5.78M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.12%5.38M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.90%4.33M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.84%4.03M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	0.73%3.51M shares
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	0.68%3.25M shares
CAPTRUST FINANCIAL ADVISORS	0.53%2.53M shares
Long Amanda	≈0.51%2.45M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	0.50%2.39M shares
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP	0.45%2.17M shares
NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA /FI/	0.45%2.15M shares
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	0.44%2.12M shares
Graham Capital Management, L.P.	0.34%1.63M shares

Percentages use 479.49M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)79$465.97M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 22, 2026Form 4	Ricker Sean RaymondChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$4.33	$43.3K	609.3K
May 8, 2026Form 4	HAYES DOROTHY DDirector	SellCommon Stock	15.0K	$4.11	$61.7K	204.2K
Mar 16, 2026Form 4	Braden Pamela JoyceDirector	SellCommon Stock	80.0K	$4.00	$320.0K	508.7K
Mar 6, 2026Form 4	HAYES DOROTHY DDirector	SellCommon Stock	17.0K	$3.98	$67.7K	219.2K
Dec 4, 2025Form 4	Ricker Sean RaymondChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	5.0K	$7.06	$35.3K	488.7K