Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)

Price$61.80Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-16 12:46 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkValuation looks modest after adjusting for one-time acquisition gains and recent growth expectations.

Blue Bird Corporation, listed on Nasdaq as BLBD, screens inexpensive on normalized results. Recent market data imply roughly 13 times forward earnings and free cash flow, with enterprise value below 10 times EBITDA. The headline trailing P/E is artificially low because fiscal third-quarter GAAP profit included a $160.5 million non-cash gain from remeasuring the previously owned Micro Bird stake. A further caution: Micro Bird's 2.7 million exchangeable shares are economically equivalent to common stock, so simple market-cap ratios using only listed common shares can overstate cheapness.

Big pictureGrowth is strong, but school-bus demand, funding cycles, tariffs, and delivery timing remain inherently uneven.

Fiscal third-quarter revenue reached $517.2 million and adjusted EBITDA reached $71.4 million, a 14% margin, while management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Most reported growth came from newly consolidated Micro Bird; legacy Blue Bird sales slipped 0.9%, partly because deliveries shifted into the fourth quarter. The bull case assumes mid-teens revenue growth as replacement demand, alternative-power buses, Micro Bird, and later Ford chassis broaden the market while margins hold near the mid-teens. The bear case assumes flat legacy volumes and margins retreating toward the low teens.

Business strengthCash generation and liquidity are healthy, though acquisition funding and working-capital swings deserve attention.

Through nine months, operating cash flow was $115.4 million and company-defined free cash flow was $92.7 million. Blue Bird held $116.8 million of cash, versus $86.8 million of term debt, and had $141.7 million available on its main revolver, giving it a solid liquidity cushion. Cash conversion is seasonal: inventories climbed sharply ahead of expected fourth-quarter deliveries. Capital allocation is mixed but rational: buybacks retired 392,418 shares for $19.9 million, while the Micro Bird acquisition created 2.7 million exchangeable shares, producing meaningful dilution.

What could change the storyExecution on Micro Bird, Ford expansion, margins, and new-share supply could materially reset expectations.

The strongest upside catalyst is successful integration of Micro Bird plus the Ford stripped-chassis program, where management sees potential for roughly 10,000 annual units and at least $600 million of revenue once production ramps from 2028. That would diversify Blue Bird beyond school buses. The key downside triggers are integration slippage, higher investment needs, weaker district replacement demand, renewed component or tariff pressure, or margin erosion. Another near-term factor is the Micro Bird exchangeable-share lockup beginning to release on October 1, 2026, which could increase tradable supply.

AI: News

Record quarter, guidance raisedQuarterly sales and adjusted EBITDA reached records, and management raised full-year profit guidance again.

On August 5, Blue Bird reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $517.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million, and 3,525 buses sold. Nine-month revenue reached $1.20 billion. Management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance while maintaining a strong outlook for alternative-powered buses. GAAP net income was boosted by a $160.5 million non-cash acquisition gain, so adjusted earnings and cash flow give a cleaner view of underlying profitability.

Ford chassis expansionA Ford collaboration opens a sizable new chassis market, with production targeted to begin in 2028.

On August 5, Blue Bird announced an agreement with Ford to design, manufacture, and sell next-generation F-53 and F-59 stripped chassis using Ford powertrains. Blue Bird also agreed to buy selected Detroit Chassis assets for $7 million, with closing anticipated in early 2027. New production is targeted for the first half of 2028. Management says the opportunity could eventually support about 10,000 annual units and at least $600 million of yearly revenue, though execution and upfront investment remain material risks.

Micro Bird fully consolidatedFull ownership of Micro Bird broadens products and markets, but it also adds integration work and dilution.

On April 2, Blue Bird announced completion of its purchase of Girardin Group's 50% stake in Micro Bird, giving Blue Bird full control of the Type A bus producer. The transaction was valued at about $200 million and funded with cash plus equity. It expands Blue Bird into a broader school, shuttle, and commercial bus portfolio, including Buy America-compliant production, but integration costs and newly issued exchangeable shares raise execution and dilution considerations for shareholders.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014 · Dec 31	2014 · Sep 27	2013
Revenue	$1.48B	$1.35B	$1.13B	$800.6M	$684.0M	$879.2M	$1.02B	$1.02B	$990.6M	$932.0M	$919.1M	—	$855.7M	$776.6M
Gross profit	$303.5M	$256.2M	$138.8M	$36.5M	$72.1M	$96.2M	$133.5M	$122.0M	$127.4M	$129.4M	$120.4M	—	$109.4M	$92.4M
Gross margin	20.51%	19.01%	12.26%	4.56%	10.55%	10.94%	13.10%	11.90%	12.86%	13.88%	13.10%	—	12.78%	11.90%
Research & development	$15.2M	$9.4M	$6.6M	$6.1M	$5.2M	$6.4M	$11.5M	$8.5M	$7.4M	$5.4M	$5.2M	—	$3.7M	$3.6M
Operating expenses	$136.3M	$116.8M	$87.2M	$77.2M	$65.6M	$74.2M	$89.6M	$86.9M	$67.8M	$102.7M	$84.6M	—	$91.4M	$65.3M
Operating income	$167.2M	$139.3M	$51.7M	−$40.7M	$6.5M	$22.0M	$43.8M	$35.1M	$59.5M	$26.6M	$35.8M	—	$17.9M	$27.1M
Operating margin	11.29%	10.34%	4.56%	−5.08%	0.95%	2.50%	4.30%	3.42%	6.01%	2.86%	3.90%	—	2.10%	3.49%
EBITDA	$182.8M	$154.2M	$67.6M	−$26.6M	$20.0M	$36.4M	$54.2M	$44.1M	$67.7M	$34.7M	$44.6M	—	$27.8M	$38.9M
EBITDA margin	12.35%	11.44%	5.97%	−3.33%	2.92%	4.14%	5.32%	4.30%	6.84%	3.72%	4.86%	—	3.25%	5.01%
Net income	$127.7M	$105.5M	$23.8M	−$45.8M	−$289,000	$12.2M	$24.3M	$30.8M	$28.8M	$6.9M	$14.9M	−$5.7M	$2.8M	$54.2M
Net profit margin	8.63%	7.83%	2.10%	−5.72%	−0.04%	1.39%	2.38%	3.01%	2.91%	0.74%	1.62%	—	0.32%	6.98%
Basic EPSper basic share	$4.01	$3.27	$0.74	-$1.48	-$0.01	$0.45	$0.92	$1.15	$0.79	$0.14	$0.59	-$1.53	$0.13	$2.46
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$3.88	$3.16	$0.74	-$1.48	-$0.01	$0.45	$0.90	$1.08	$0.74	$0.14	$0.59	-$1.53	$0.13	$2.46

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈9.53%of listed shares

FMR LLC3.02M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of BLBD
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	≈9.53%3.02M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	≈8.30%2.63M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	≈5.04%1.6M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.42%1.4M shares
WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC	≈3.92%1.24M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	≈3.77%1.19M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	≈3.14%995.19K shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈2.76%874.05K shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	≈2.58%818.48K shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	≈2.54%805.03K shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈2.54%803.87K shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	≈2.27%719.47K shares
325 CAPITAL LLC	≈2.25%711.39K shares
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC	≈2.09%662.96K shares
NEUMEIER POMA INVESTMENT COUNSEL LLC	≈2.04%647.54K shares
DEROY & DEVEREAUX PRIVATE INVESTMENT COUNSEL INC	≈1.91%604.6K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈1.83%578.97K shares
OBERWEIS ASSET MANAGEMENT INC/	≈1.67%529.84K shares
Aberdeen Group plc	≈1.63%515.86K shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈1.44%454.85K shares

Percentages use 31.68M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 27, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$100.5K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)33$19.99M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 19, 2026Form 4	Thau Daniel MarkDirector	BuyCommon Stock, par value $0.0001 per share	300	$65.09	$19.5K	8.7K
Mar 4, 2026Form 4	Sanfrey Jeffrey ScottChief Operating Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.0001 per share	5.2K	$58.54	$303.9K	39.0K
Feb 19, 2026Form 4	Radulescu RazvanChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.0001	3.9K	$60.98	$239.3K	42.3K
Dec 17, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Radulescu RazvanChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.0001	7.0K	$51.58	$361.4K	46.2K
Dec 12, 2025Form 4	Horlock PhilDirector	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.0001 per share	8.3K	$50.35	$420.0K	225.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)

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