BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe price already assumes strong growth will continue with little interruption.

BlackRock closed at $1,173.73 on August 14. Supplied figures give trailing reported earnings of $41.73 a share: 2025’s $35.31 plus first-half 2026’s $26.25 minus first-half 2025’s $19.83. The price is therefore 28.1 times one year’s profit per share. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after operations and business investment—was roughly $3.52 billion, a 1.8% yield on the $190.7 billion market value. Forecast earnings lower the multiple to 19.6, but those growth expectations leave little margin for disappointment.

Big pictureBlackRock is growing quickly, yet market prices still drive much of revenue.

Revenue rose 36% from $17.87 billion in 2022 to $24.22 billion in 2025, while net income increased only 7%, partly because acquisition costs reduced reported profit. Momentum accelerated in first-half 2026: revenue grew 29% and net income 33% from a year earlier. Second-quarter client assets reached $15.3 trillion, with $192 billion of inflows. Recurring fees from new client money grew 10%. However, equities represented 61% of long-term client assets in 2025, so falling markets would mechanically reduce asset values and fee revenue.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is sound, but payouts still outrun recent cash generation.

June 2026 cash was $10.49 billion against $12.74 billion of debt, leaving $2.25 billion of net debt beside $57.61 billion of shareholder equity. That is manageable, though no longer a net-cash position. In 2025, operating cash of $3.93 billion less $375 million of business investment produced $3.55 billion of free cash flow, versus $5.0 billion returned through dividends and repurchases. Employee share awards cost $1.31 billion, while outstanding shares rose 4.4% from 2023 to 2025. Planned quarterly repurchases of $550 million should limit further dilution.

What could change the storyFaster fee growth could justify the premium; weaker markets would expose it.

The premium becomes more defensible if recurring fee growth stays near 10%, technology subscription growth remains near the second quarter’s 13%, and acquisitions lift cash generation while shares remain near 155 million. An illustrative hurdle shows the expectation: growing trailing earnings 12% annually to $58.60 by 2029 and applying 22 times earnings gives about $1,289, only 10% above today before dividends. If earnings stall near $42 and the valuation falls to 22 times, the result is about $924, or 21% lower. These are scenarios, not forecasts.

$1,173.73 price considered

AI: News

Record second-quarter resultsRecord client assets and inflows lifted earnings, buybacks, and investor expectations.

On July 15, BlackRock reported $15.3 trillion of client assets, record first-half inflows of $321 billion and second-quarter inflows of $192 billion. Revenue rose 31%, operating income 42% and diluted earnings per share 20%; adjusted earnings per share reached $13.91, up 15%. Management raised planned quarterly repurchases from $450 million to $550 million. Shares closed 6.6% higher, their largest one-day gain in more than a year, while the broad S&P 500 index gained 0.4%.

Aligned acquisition closesA major data-center purchase expands private markets, but shareholder economics remain unclear.

On July 21, the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership, MGX and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners completed their purchase of Aligned Data Centers. The transaction valued the entire business, including debt, at approximately $40 billion. Aligned has 51 campuses and more than 6.4 gigawatts of operating and planned capacity. This deploys client and partner capital rather than representing a $40 billion BlackRock corporate purchase. It can expand fee-earning infrastructure assets, although BlackRock’s ownership economics and performance-fee opportunity were not disclosed.

Meta data-center ventureMeta chose BlackRock funds for a huge project, validating the business built through recent acquisitions.

On July 28, Meta and BlackRock announced a roughly $14 billion, one-gigawatt data-center venture in El Paso, expected to begin operating in 2028. BlackRock-managed funds will own 80% and contribute about $4.9 billion; $12.5 billion of debt will fund part of the project. Meta will lease the campus and provide guarantees initially totaling about $13 billion. The structure may add long-duration infrastructure fees and demonstrates combined Global Infrastructure Partners and HPS Investment Partners capabilities. BlackRock shares rose 3.3% that day, but attribution is uncertain.

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	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$24.22B	$20.41B	$17.86B	$17.87B
Operating expenses	$17.17B	$12.83B	$11.58B	$11.49B
Operating income	$7.04B	$7.57B	$6.28B	$6.38B
EBITDAderived	$8.17B	$8.10B	$6.70B	$6.80B
Net income	$5.55B	$6.37B	$5.50B	$5.18B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$35.83	$42.45	$36.85	$34.31
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$35.31	$42.01	$36.51	$33.97

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)116$469.62M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Apr 28, 2026Form 4	FINK LAURENCEChairman and CEO	SellShares Of Common Stock (par Value $0.01 Per Share)	2.1K	$1.1K	$2.24M	230.5K
Apr 28, 2026Form 4	FINK LAURENCEChairman and CEO	SellShares Of Common Stock (par Value $0.01 Per Share)	8.2K	$1.1K	$8.65M	232.6K
Apr 28, 2026Form 4	FINK LAURENCEChairman and CEO	SellShares Of Common Stock (par Value $0.01 Per Share)	13.8K	$1.1K	$14.53M	240.9K
Apr 28, 2026Form 4	FINK LAURENCEChairman and CEO	SellShares Of Common Stock (par Value $0.01 Per Share)	9.7K	$1.0K	$10.20M	254.7K
Apr 27, 2026Form 4	KAPITO ROBERTPresident	SellShares Of Common Stock (par Value $0.01 Per Share)	187	$1.1K	$197.8K	210.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

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Insider buys & sells