BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN)

Price$98.59Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkStrong growth is already priced in, leaving little margin for slower execution.

Using the quarter-end share count, the equity is worth about $4.5 billion and about $4.1 billion after subtracting cash beyond debt. That is roughly 11 times trailing revenue, about 10 times the midpoint of 2026 sales guidance, about 119 times trailing net income, and about 136 times trailing free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and investment. Those are demanding levels even for rapid growth, so the observed market price looks overvalued for a value investor.

Big pictureProfitability has arrived, and the cash-rich balance sheet gives the company real staying power.

Revenue reached $305.1 million in 2025, while operating income turned positive at $16.0 million. In the first half of 2026, operating income rose to $23.3 million and free cash flow was about $16.0 million. Cash of $548.6 million exceeded debt by $404.7 million, helped by $286.9 million of net proceeds from the initial public offering. The offset is dilution: first-half stock compensation reached $14.7 million, and 8.9 million options remained outstanding at an average exercise price far below the market.

Business strengthThe core prenatal franchise is strong, while oncology offers faster but much smaller growth.

Prenatal testing supplied about 88% of first-half 2026 revenue, while oncology contributed 11%. In the second quarter, prenatal revenue grew 55% and oncology revenue grew 176%, with a 70% gross margin. Demand is not obviously tied to the economic cycle, but results can be lumpy because more than 90% of first-half revenue came from third-party reimbursement. New insurer agreements also created $12.0 million of first-half revenue tied to tests performed in earlier periods.

What could change the storyThe valuation works only if rapid growth persists and converts into much larger steady profits.

The bull case is continued near-50% sales growth, roughly 70% gross margins, successful new prenatal and oncology launches, and rising operating margins as volume scales. The bear case is visible deceleration: current guidance implies only about 29% to 38% second-half growth versus 74% in the first half. Reimbursement timing can also shift reported revenue, and equity compensation creates dilution. If growth settles near 30% without much higher margins, the current valuation compared with sales is hard to defend; sustained 50% growth would change that conclusion.

AI: News

Guidance disappoints investorsStrong second-quarter growth could not offset disappointment that management left its full-year sales outlook unchanged.

On August 5, BillionToOne reported $109.4 million of quarterly revenue, up 64%, a 70% gross margin, $5.5 million of operating income, and $5.1 million of free cash flow. Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $465 million. The next trading day, shares fell about 39%. Investor's Business Daily reported that investors focused on the unchanged outlook after a large prior run-up, suggesting expectations had become much harder to satisfy.

Prenatal evidence strengthensA large prenatal study strengthened clinical evidence for the company’s most important revenue franchise.

On August 18, a prospective study covering 2,212 pregnant carriers reported outcomes for 98.6% of eligible pregnancies. Unity Fetal Risk Screen showed 94.4% sensitivity, 99.5% specificity, and greater than 99.9% negative predictive value, meaning a negative result was almost always correct in the study. Because prenatal testing represents most company revenue, stronger clinical evidence can support physician adoption and insurer coverage. The study improves the business case, but it does not by itself prove faster reimbursement or future sales growth.

Northstar Origin launchesThe new Northstar Origin launch broadens oncology testing and could deepen revenue per cancer patient.

On September 1, BillionToOne launched Northstar Origin, a blood-based add-on cancer test that predicts tissue of origin, and expanded Northstar Select from 84 to 102 genes. In an independent validation group of 1,578 patients, Origin identified the correct tissue as its top prediction in 87% of cases and within the top three in 91%. Oncology is still a small revenue base, so the financial impact depends on ordering volume, reimbursement, and repeat adoption.

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Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023
Revenue	$305.1M	$152.6M	$71.7M
Gross profit	$208.5M	$80.9M	$17.3M
Gross margin	68.32%	53.03%	24.13%
Research & development	$49.4M	$36.6M	$22.4M
Operating expenses	$192.4M	$128.1M	$86.8M
Operating income	$16.0M	−$47.1M	−$69.5M
Operating margin	5.25%	−30.90%	−96.89%
EBITDA	$22.9M	−$40.1M	−$63.6M
EBITDA margin	7.51%	−26.31%	−88.66%
Net income	$7.5M	−$41.6M	−$82.7M
Net profit margin	2.44%	−27.24%	−115.27%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.18	-$4.12	-$8.45
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.14	-$4.12	-$8.45

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈18.65%of listed shares

HB&Q NV (HB&Q COMPARTMENT III) / Hummingbird Opportunity Fund II CommV / Van den Brande Barend / Hummingbird Dragons CommV / Hummingbird Collective CommV / Humming Bird Ventures Management NV / Decoster Lukas / Hummingbird Ventures III CommV7.89M shares · Nov 7, 2025

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of BLLN
Holder	% owned
HB&Q NV (HB&Q COMPARTMENT III) / Hummingbird Opportunity Fund II CommV / Van den Brande Barend / Hummingbird Dragons CommV / Hummingbird Collective CommV / Humming Bird Ventures Management NV / Decoster Lukas / Hummingbird Ventures III CommV	≈18.65%7.89M shares
ADAMS STREET PARTNERS LLC	4.05%1.71M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.39%1.01M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	2.13%901.42K shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.99%840.97K shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.98%835.61K shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.89%799.47K shares
NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP LLC	1.81%764.22K shares
BAMCO INC /NY/	1.76%742.09K shares
WASATCH ADVISORS LP	1.23%518.08K shares
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.01%425.03K shares
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.	0.99%418.57K shares
EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC	0.89%375.86K shares
NEXT CENTURY GROWTH INVESTORS LLC	0.86%364.47K shares
UBS Group AG	0.81%344.29K shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	0.80%340.37K shares
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	0.76%320.61K shares
OBERWEIS ASSET MANAGEMENT INC/	0.71%299.03K shares
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN	0.64%271.55K shares
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	0.62%262.1K shares

Percentages use 42.28M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys11$3.18M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)34$9.19M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Sakakibara Shan RikuChief Product Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	4.0K	$110.00	$440.0K	208.0K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Sakakibara Shan RikuChief Product Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	4.0K	$110.00	$440.0K	212.0K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Tsao DavidChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	563	$104.32	$58.7K	1.0K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Tsao DavidChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.4K	$103.63	$248.5K	1.6K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Tsao DavidChief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	3.0K	$102.60	$305.5K	4.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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