Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)

Price$46.58Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 23:32 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because the valuation demands years of unusually fast profit growth.

At the observed market value, Dutch Bros trades at roughly 70 times trailing earnings per listed share and about 23 times the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Adjusted EBITDA is management's operating-profit measure before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Trailing free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending, is about $95 million, only around 1.1% of market value. A five-year 10% annual return with investors later valuing the business at 25 to 30 times earnings would require earnings per share to compound roughly 30% to 35% annually.

Big pictureSales and cash generation are compounding quickly, but expansion still absorbs most available cash.

Revenue rose from $327 million in 2020 to $1.64 billion in 2025, about 38% annualized growth, while operating income improved from $11 million to $161 million. The latest four quarters produced about $1.88 billion of revenue, $366 million of operating cash flow and $95 million of free cash flow after roughly $271 million of capital spending. Cash durability is improving, but free cash flow was negative in 2022 and 2023, showing how heavily new-shop investment can consume cash during rapid expansion.

Business strengthGrowth is real and the cash position is solid, though long-term obligations reduce the cushion.

Second-quarter revenue grew 32.5%, systemwide same-shop sales rose 5.8%, transactions rose 1.7%, and 48 shops opened. June cash of $269 million exceeded reported borrowings by about $70 million, and current assets were 1.35 times current liabilities. However, Dutch Bros also carried about $1.01 billion of lease liabilities and a $973 million tax-receivable liability, which sends 85% of certain realized tax benefits to owners from before the public listing. Expansion also uses cash, with 2026 capital spending guidance of $350 million to $370 million.

What could change the storyFaster traffic and better shop returns could justify the premium; slower growth would expose it.

The bull case is continued 25% to 30% revenue growth, rising traffic and central costs growing more slowly than sales, allowing earnings to climb faster. The bear signal is already visible: system transaction growth slowed from 5.1% in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second. Class A shares rose from 127.1 million to 137.9 million in six months, but much of that was one-for-one conversion of existing operating-company units, not new economic dilution. Equity awards still create modest real dilution. Sustained traffic acceleration would strengthen the thesis; further slowing would make the valuation difficult to defend.

AI: News

Q2 beat, sharp selloffStrong second-quarter results still triggered a sharp selloff because investors focused on slower near-term growth.

On August 5, Dutch Bros reported 32.5% revenue growth, 5.8% systemwide same-shop sales growth and raised full-year revenue and adjusted operating-profit guidance. The shares then fell nearly 19% the next trading day. Reporting tied the reaction mainly to expected third-quarter same-shop growth of roughly 4% to 5%, slower transaction momentum and cost pressure. Attribution is not perfectly clean because the company also disclosed a major site-acquisition agreement the same day.

Salad and Go site dealDutch Bros agreed to buy up to 65 former Salad and Go sites, accelerating expansion.

On August 4, the company signed an agreement for real estate and related site assets at up to 65 locations across Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma and Texas, with closing expected in the third quarter. No purchase price was disclosed in the filing. The deal can shorten development timelines and add attractive drive-thru sites, but it also raises near-term capital needs and execution demands. Because it was disclosed alongside earnings, its separate stock-price effect is uncertain.

Q1 beat, valuation resetFirst-quarter growth beat expectations, yet the shares fell as investors questioned the premium valuation.

On May 6, revenue grew 30.8% to $464.4 million, systemwide same-shop sales rose 8.3%, transactions increased 5.1%, and Dutch Bros raised full-year guidance. The stock fell about 10% the following morning despite the growth. Contemporary coverage pointed to narrowing shop-level margins, expected second-half same-shop deceleration and concern that a very high earnings multiple left little room for disappointment. The reaction showed how sensitive the stock is to even modest changes in growth expectations.

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Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

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2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2020

2021

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2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$1.64B	$1.28B	$965.8M	$739.0M	$497.9M	$327.4M	$238.4M
Gross profit	$423.9M	$340.1M	$251.3M	$180.9M	$153.3M	$115.9M	$96.1M
Gross margin	25.88%	26.55%	26.02%	24.48%	30.79%	35.41%	40.30%
Operating expenses	$1.48B	$1.17B	$919.6M	$741.6M	$609.1M	$316.4M	$208.1M
Operating income	$161.2M	$106.1M	$46.2M	−$2.6M	−$111.2M	$11.0M	$30.3M
Operating margin	9.84%	8.28%	4.79%	−0.35%	−22.34%	3.36%	12.71%
EBITDA	$276.3M	$199.1M	$115.4M	$42.1M	−$86.0M	$26.5M	$40.0M
EBITDA margin	16.87%	15.54%	11.94%	5.70%	−17.28%	8.11%	16.77%
Net income	$79.8M	$35.3M	$1.7M	−$4.8M	−$12.7M	$0	$0
Net profit margin	4.87%	2.75%	0.18%	−0.64%	−2.55%	0.00%	0.00%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.64	$0.34	$0.03	-$0.09	-$0.28	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.64	$0.34	$0.03	-$0.09	-$0.28	—	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

12.13%of listed shares

FMR LLC16.72M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of BROS
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	12.13%16.72M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	10.63%14.66M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	6.96%9.59M shares
Boersma Travis	≈5.02%6.93M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.40%6.07M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.31%5.94M shares
DM Trust Aggregator, LLC	≈3.27%4.51M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	3.09%4.27M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.79%3.85M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	2.24%3.09M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	1.99%2.74M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.80%2.48M shares
DM Individual Aggregator, LLC	≈1.75%2.41M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.60%2.21M shares
WESTFIELD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LP	1.58%2.18M shares
1832 Asset Management L.P.	1.46%2.01M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.44%1.99M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.37%1.89M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	1.24%1.72M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.16%1.6M shares

Percentages use 137.89M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$102.4K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)307$1.79B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Boersma TravisExecutive Chairman of Board	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	15.6K	$64.10	$997.1K	2.41M
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Boersma TravisExecutive Chairman of Board	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	120.7K	$63.46	$7.66M	2.43M
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Boersma TravisExecutive Chairman of Board	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	124.8K	$62.47	$7.79M	2.55M
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Boersma TravisExecutive Chairman of Board	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	29.1K	$64.10	$1.87M	4.51M
Jun 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Boersma TravisExecutive Chairman of Board	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	226.1K	$63.46	$14.35M	4.54M