Celcuity Inc. (CELC)

Price$95.70Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 00:31 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares already price in a strong launch, leaving little margin for mistakes.

At the observed close, Celcuity's equity value was about $4.7 billion. June cash plus Treasury investments were about $754 million and convertible debt was about $754 million, so debt roughly cancels liquid funds. There was still no product revenue through June. As an illustration, valuing a mature oncology business at 4–6 times annual sales and reducing a 2030 value by 12% yearly implies roughly $1.2–$1.9 billion of annual sales by then. That demanding but plausible outcome supports a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureApproval transformed Celcuity from a clinical bet into a launch-stage business with real commercial upside.

Revtorpyk received U.S. approval on July 14 for a common advanced breast-cancer subtype after its Phase 3 triplet and doublet regimens cut the risk of progression or death by 76% and 67% versus fulvestrant alone. National treatment guidelines then named both regimens preferred Category 1 options, which can support physician adoption. This is not a normal cyclical business: value depends mainly on treatment uptake. The label also reports mouth inflammation in 72% of triplet patients, including 22% severe cases, so tolerability could limit use.

Business strengthThe balance sheet can fund the launch, but past financing has diluted owners heavily.

Current assets were $775.8 million against $86.9 million of current liabilities at June 30, but total liabilities reached $841.0 million and shareholder equity turned negative after heavy financing. First-half operating cash use was $110.5 million, 53% above the prior-year period, while net loss reached $131.7 million. Shares outstanding rose from 25.5 million at end-2023 to 48.9 million by June 2026. The new $575 million notes refinanced $137 million of term debt and fund launch work, but conversion features and stock awards can still dilute owners.

What could change the storyEarly sales traction or another approval could justify the valuation; weak adoption would expose downside.

The strongest bull case is rapid second-line adoption plus another approval for tumors with a PIK3CA mutation. In that group, the Phase 3 triplet delivered 11.1 months without progression versus 5.6 months for alpelisib plus fulvestrant, and Celcuity filed the expansion application on August 26. First-line trials create another growth path. The bear case is equally specific: commercial shipments begin only late in the third quarter, safety management is burdensome, and cash burn remains high. Early quarterly sales and treatment persistence will quickly test today's valuation.

AI: News

Mutant trial resets expectationsPatients went about twice as long without cancer worsening, but investors had expected even stronger results.

On June 2, Celcuity reported that the Phase 3 triplet produced 11.1 months of median progression-free survival, meaning time before cancer worsened, versus 5.6 months for alpelisib plus fulvestrant. The risk of progression or death fell 50%. Despite meeting the trial goal, Reuters reported the shares slumped about 25% because the result was below an earlier smaller study and below some investor expectations. That reaction shows how much future success had already been priced in.

Large convertible fundingCelcuity raised more than half a billion dollars, reducing funding risk but adding convertible debt.

In June, Celcuity completed $575 million of convertible notes due in 2032 and received about $557 million after offering costs. It used $137 million to repay its term loan, leaving substantial funding for commercialization and clinical work. The notes carry only 0.25% annual interest and were initially convertible at a level 40% above the June 3 market close. This materially extended the company's financial runway while shifting part of future financing risk toward potential share dilution.

First drug wins approvalThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Celcuity's first drug, but launch timing and side effects triggered a sharp selloff.

On July 14, regulators approved Revtorpyk for advanced breast cancer without a PIK3CA mutation following prior endocrine therapy. The pivotal triplet reduced the risk of progression or death by 76% versus fulvestrant alone. Reuters reported that shares fell nearly 19% the next day as investors focused on a later-than-expected commercial rollout and safety concerns. The approved label reports substantial mouth inflammation and frequent treatment interruptions, making real-world tolerability an important adoption test.

Mutant expansion filedCelcuity asked U.S. regulators to broaden Revtorpyk's label into mutation-positive disease, expanding its possible market.

On August 26, Celcuity submitted a supplemental application seeking approval for patients whose tumors carry a PIK3CA mutation after prior endocrine therapy. The filing is supported by the same Phase 3 data showing roughly twice the time without cancer progression compared with alpelisib plus fulvestrant. Approval would broaden Revtorpyk beyond its initial mutation-negative population and improve the revenue opportunity. It remains a regulatory application, however, so the additional indication should not yet be treated as secured commercial value.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research & development	$145.0M	$104.2M	$60.6M	$35.3M	$25.8M	$7.7M	$6.3M	$6.3M	$5.0M	$3.1M
Operating expenses	$172.2M	$113.3M	$66.2M	$39.4M	$28.4M	$9.6M	$7.8M	$7.9M	$6.0M	$3.3M
Operating income	−$172.2M	−$113.3M	−$66.2M	−$39.4M	−$28.4M	−$9.6M	−$7.8M	−$7.9M	−$6.0M	−$3.3M
EBITDA	−$172.0M	−$113.1M	−$66.1M	−$39.2M	−$28.0M	−$9.2M	−$7.5M	−$7.7M	−$5.8M	−$3.3M
Net income	−$177.0M	−$111.8M	−$63.8M	−$40.4M	−$29.6M	−$9.5M	−$7.4M	−$7.5M	−$6.3M	−$3.3M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$3.79	-$2.83	-$2.69	-$2.64	-$2.21	-$0.92	-$0.72	-$0.74	-$0.84	-$0.52
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$3.79	-$2.83	-$2.69	-$2.64	-$2.21	-$0.92	-$0.72	-$0.74	-$0.84	-$0.52

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

16.18%of listed shares

BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP7.92M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of CELC
Holder	% owned
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	16.18%7.92M shares
Avoro Capital Advisors LLC	6.95%3.4M shares
RTW INVESTMENTS, LP	6.76%3.3M shares
PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	6.54%3.2M shares
Sullivan Brian F.	≈6.38%3.12M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	6.17%3.02M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.00%1.96M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.83%1.87M shares
NEA Management Company, LLC	3.50%1.71M shares
Soleus Capital Management, L.P.	3.48%1.7M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	3.01%1.47M shares
DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.	2.97%1.45M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.73%1.33M shares
TANG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.69%1.31M shares
TORONTO DOMINION BANK	2.57%1.26M shares
Laing Lance G.	≈2.56%1.25M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.27%1.11M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.10%1.03M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	1.85%906.6K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.78%870.45K shares

Percentages use 48.92M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys4$9.57M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)24$14.65M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Buller Richard EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	365	$143.24	$52.3K	6.8K
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Buller Richard EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	2.8K	$142.04	$401.3K	7.1K
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Buller Richard EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	2.3K	$141.03	$324.5K	9.9K
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Buller Richard EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	1.7K	$139.58	$233.1K	12.3K
May 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Buller Richard EDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	550	$139.00	$76.5K	13.9K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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