CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong cash returns depend on unusually high fertilizer prices.

At $118.30, CF trades at about 8.8 times trailing diluted earnings of $13.46, using the last four reported quarters. With roughly 153.6 million shares, equity value is about $18.2 billion. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after operating and investing in the business—was about $1.91 billion, a 10.5% yield. Yet 2026 profits benefit from unusual supply disruption. An 8% yield implies roughly $155 per share, while a stricter 10% yield supports about $124. That cycle-sensitive range makes the price reasonable rather than clearly cheap.

Big pictureCash generation has stayed resilient, but fertilizer cycles make peak earnings unreliable.

Revenue fell from $11.19 billion in 2022 to $5.94 billion in 2024, then recovered to $7.08 billion in 2025. Net income moved from $3.94 billion to $1.48 billion and then $1.80 billion. Even so, operating cash stayed between $2.27 billion and $2.76 billion during 2023–2025; free cash flow remained between $1.75 billion and $2.26 billion despite 2025 capital spending nearly doubling to $950 million. The 2020 trough still produced $922 million of free cash. Cash generation looks durable, but yearly earnings plainly are not.

Business strengthA liquid balance sheet and major share retirement provide meaningful downside protection.

At June 30, 2026, CF held $2.48 billion of cash against $3.22 billion of debt, leaving only $736 million of net debt. Current assets of $3.75 billion were nearly 4.9 times current liabilities. Shares fell from 213.95 million at year-end 2020 to 153.55 million at year-end 2025, a 28% reduction. During 2020–2025, CF spent $5.44 billion on buybacks and $1.83 billion on dividends; 2025 stock compensation was just $45 million. This created substantial net share retirement, although repurchasing heavily near a cycle peak could still waste capital.

What could change the storyLasting supply shortages offer upside, while restored global output could remove today’s earnings support.

The bull case is persistent Middle East outages plus CF’s North American gas advantage: first-quarter 2026 selling prices rose 28% to $424 per ton even as gas cost rose 24% to $4.57 per million British thermal units, a standard gas measure. The bear case is reopened shipping, restored overseas plants or greater Chinese exports quickly lowering nitrogen prices; natural gas was 39% of CF’s production cost. At $118.30, an 8% cash return requires about $1.45 billion of annual free cash, 24% below the trailing level. A larger cyclical fall would erase the cushion.

$118.30 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter profit surgeHigher fertilizer prices nearly doubled quarterly profit, although the immediate market response was restrained.

On August 5, 2026, CF reported second-quarter net earnings attributable to common shareholders of $727 million, or $4.73 per diluted share, versus $386 million and $2.37 a year earlier. First-half adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes and noncash charges reached $2.18 billion, while cash rose to $2.48 billion. Shares closed virtually unchanged on August 6 and fell 2.0% on August 7. That timing suggests a mixed reception but does not prove the results caused either move.

Dividend increased twenty percentThe larger dividend signals confidence in cash generation while creating a higher recurring commitment.

On July 8, 2026, the board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.50 to $0.60 per share, payable August 31 to holders recorded August 14. At the observed price, the annualized $2.40 payment yields about 2.0% and would cost roughly $369 million yearly at the recent share count—well below trailing free cash flow. CF shares rose 1.8% that day, but price timing alone cannot establish that the dividend announcement caused the increase.

Hormuz supply shock persistsMiddle East disruptions lifted fertilizer prices, helping CF while making current profits less durable.

On July 27, 2026, reporting indicated the Strait of Hormuz remained blockaded despite a ceasefire pause; Iran normally exports roughly eight million tonnes of urea annually. CF’s filing says the Middle East supplies 25%–30% of traded ammonia and 35%–40% of traded urea. The disruption helped lift CF’s first-quarter selling price 28% to $424 per ton. The benefit to CF is an evidence-based inference from constrained competing supply; restored shipping and production could reverse it quickly.

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Free cash flow

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$7.08B	$5.94B	$6.63B	$11.19B	$6.54B	$4.12B	$4.59B	$4.31B	$4.74B	$5.47B	$6.10B	$6.10B	$3.96B	$2.61B	$3.92B	$2.76B
Gross profit	$2.72B	$2.06B	$2.54B	$5.86B	$2.39B	$801.0M	$1.17B	$1.55B	$1.78B	$2.52B	$3.11B	$2.90B	$1.18B	$839.4M	$1.22B	$670.0M
Operating expenses	$438.0M	$314.0M	$307.0M	$558.0M	$705.0M	$189.0M	$166.0M	$319.0M	$205.2M	$150.2M	$200.9M	$155.3M	$294.4M	$159.6M	—	—
Operating income	$2.30B	$1.75B	$2.23B	$5.40B	$1.73B	$623.0M	$1.00B	$1.19B	$2.37B	$2.41B	$2.96B	$2.79B	$895.7M	$679.8M	$1.15B	$601.6M
EBITDAderived	$3.20B	$2.67B	$3.10B	$6.25B	$2.62B	$1.51B	$1.88B	$1.67B	$2.76B	$2.82B	$3.38B	$3.21B	$1.29B	$780.8M	$1.25B	$686.1M
Net income	$1.80B	$1.48B	$1.84B	$3.94B	$1.26B	$432.0M	$646.0M	$734.1M	$1.44B	$1.53B	$1.92B	$1.54B	$349.2M	$365.6M	$684.6M	$372.7M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$8.98	$6.75	$7.89	$16.45	$4.27	$1.48	$2.24	$2.97	$5.43	$4.97	$28.94	$22.18	$5.40	$7.54	$12.35	$6.70
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$8.97	$6.74	$7.87	$16.38	$4.24	$1.47	$2.23	$2.96	$5.42	$4.95	$28.59	$21.98	$5.34	$7.42	$12.13	$6.56

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)54$80.17M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Mar 17, 2026Form 4	Mayer Erik M.VP, Clean Energy & BusDevelop	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	1.5K	$124.69	$187.0K	6.3K
Mar 17, 2026Form 4	Hoker Richard AVP and Corporate Controller	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share · indirect	3.5K	$125.38	$438.7K	31.0K
Mar 17, 2026Form 4	Frost Bert AEVP, Chief Commercial Officer	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	6.0K	$126.00	$756.0K	69.5K
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Will W AnthonyDirector,Other	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	20.4K	$131.17	$2.67M	55.0K
Mar 13, 2026Form 4	Will W AnthonyDirector,Other	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	32.7K	$130.62	$4.27M	75.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells