Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)

Price$23.30Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-09 21:49 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because stronger profits are offset by expensive growth spending.

At the observed quote, 196.1 million June shares imply equity value near $4.4 billion. The headline reported earnings multiple is only about seven times, but 2025 net income included $338 million of non-cash impairment reversals. Using company-adjusted earnings for the latest twelve months gives about $317 million, or roughly fourteen times. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $137 million over the same span, nearly thirty-two times. That mix supports Fair-priced rather than a clear bargain.

Big pictureProfits have improved sharply, but cash generation still swings with metal prices and project spending.

Centerra’s earnings have strengthened, but cash generation is still cyclical. The supplied history shows 2023 revenue near $1.1 billion, a net loss near $81 million and operating cash flow near $246 million; 2022 operating cash flow was slightly negative. In 2025, revenue reached $1.38 billion and adjusted earnings were $229 million. The first half of 2026 added $167.5 million of adjusted earnings, yet free cash flow was only $26.1 million as development spending rose. That is real improvement, but not a stable earnings stream.

Business strengthA cash-heavy balance sheet and shrinking share count provide meaningful protection against operational setbacks.

Balance-sheet risk is low. The supplied 2023 history had $613 million of cash against only $24 million of debt. By June 2026, cash was $451 million, and Centerra later raised its undrawn credit facility to $600 million. Shares outstanding fell from 215.5 million in 2023 to 196.1 million, about 9% lower. Centerra repurchased $93.7 million of stock in 2025 and $72.2 million in the first half of 2026, while continuing dividends. The cushion is strong, though buybacks and growth spending are consuming cash.

What could change the storyHigher metals and successful projects could unlock upside; weaker prices or overruns could erase it.

Most upside depends on metal prices and project execution. Centerra's 2026 full ongoing gold cost guidance is $1,650-$1,750 per ounce, leaving wide margins at recent gold prices, though Mount Milligan's streaming agreement means Centerra receives less than headline spot prices on some metal. Kemess' estimated after-tax project value is $1.1 billion using $3,000 gold and $4.50 copper, versus $2.8 billion around $4,500 gold and $6 copper; Mount Milligan shows similar sensitivity. The current valuation therefore needs durable strong metals, successful projects, or both.

AI: News

Guidance and buybacks raisedStrong second-quarter results lifted production expectations and increased the planned return of cash to shareholders.

On July 28, Centerra raised 2026 gold production guidance to 260,000-290,000 ounces after a strong first half at Öksüt. First-half adjusted earnings reached $167.5 million, and the board expanded planned 2026 share repurchases to $200 million after $72.2 million was completed through June. Second-quarter free cash flow was negative $23.0 million because development spending was high. The update improved operating and capital-return expectations, although the stock's exact reaction cannot be attributed to this release alone.

Mount Milligan permits securedPermits through 2035 reduced a major operating-life risk at Centerra's largest long-lived asset.

On January 20, British Columbia approved amended environmental and related permits allowing Mount Milligan to operate through 2035, including a planned 10% plant-throughput increase starting in 2028. That removes a key permitting hurdle for cash flows already embedded in the mine plan. Centerra still needs further authorizations to reach the separately studied 2045 mine life, so some long-term execution risk remains.

Gold stays historically highGold prices remain far above Centerra's mining costs, supporting margins despite recent volatility.

On September 2, spot gold rebounded above $4,300 per ounce after a sharp late-August pullback. Centerra's 2026 full ongoing gold cost guidance is $1,650-$1,750 per ounce, so current bullion prices remain supportive even after volatility. The benefit is not one-for-one because Mount Milligan's streaming arrangement lowers realized prices on some metal. Gold moves likely influence the shares, but daily stock changes cannot be assigned to bullion alone.

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Revenue

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Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$1.38B	$1.21B	$1.09B	$850.2M	$900.1M	$721.3M
Gross profit	$463.8M	$378.0M	$264.0M	$178.5M	$292.0M	$215.5M
Gross margin	33.50%	31.13%	24.11%	21.00%	32.43%	29.88%
Operating expenses	$149.4M	$141.8M	$246.2M	$215.3M	—	$171.6M
Operating income	$314.4M	$236.3M	$17.8M	−$36.8M	$333.9M	$43.9M
Operating margin	22.71%	19.46%	1.63%	−4.33%	37.10%	6.09%
EBITDA	$848.1M	$305.8M	$142.8M	$60.3M	$454.4M	$139.7M
EBITDA margin	61.25%	25.18%	13.04%	7.09%	50.48%	19.37%
Net income	$584.0M	$80.4M	−$81.3M	−$77.2M	−$381.8M	$408.5M
Net profit margin	42.18%	6.62%	−7.42%	−9.08%	−42.41%	56.64%
Basic EPSper basic share	$2.85	$0.38	-$0.37	-$0.29	-$1.29	$1.39
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.84	$0.35	-$0.38	-$0.31	-$1.29	$1.37

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of CGAU
Holder	Shares held
L1 Capital Pty Ltd	16.34M
DONALD SMITH & CO., INC.	15.45M
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	13.34M
ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	7.61M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	7.45M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	6.52M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	5.84M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	4.2M
FMR LLC	3.83M
WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC	3.48M
Invesco Ltd.	3.1M
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	2.69M
NORGES BANK	2.65M
Nuveen, LLC	2.59M
Hillsdale Investment Management Inc.	2.55M
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	2.34M
HEARTLAND ADVISORS INC	2.15M
NEUMEIER POMA INVESTMENT COUNSEL LLC	2.05M
MORGAN STANLEY	1.87M
Merewether Investment Management, LP	1.87M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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