Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)

Price$53.56Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkAt this valuation, Calumet needs a sustained jump in cash earnings to offer a margin of safety.

At the observed market value, equity is about $4.7 billion and enterprise value, which adds net debt, is about $6.8 billion. Using the supplied SEC history, last-twelve-month EBITDA, operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, is roughly $190 million. Free cash flow, cash left after operations and capital spending, is about $74 million. That implies roughly 36 times trailing EBITDA and 63 times trailing free cash flow. Even annualizing management’s strong second-quarter adjusted version of EBITDA gives about 11 times enterprise value, leaving little margin of safety.

Big pictureCalumet is improving fast, but profits remain volatile and debt still dominates the capital structure.

Cash generation has improved, but durability is not proven. Fiscal 2025 produced $109 million of operating cash flow and $57 million after capital spending; the latest twelve months improve to about $146 million and $74 million, respectively. Yet quarterly EBITDA swung from $374 million in the third quarter of 2025 to losses in the next three quarters. June debt was $2.26 billion against $110 million of cash, while accounting equity, assets minus liabilities, was negative $1.14 billion. July debt retirement helps, but the balance sheet remains leveraged.

Business strengthSpecialty products are earning exceptional margins, while renewable fuels now have a cheaper path to meaningful growth.

Second-quarter Specialty Products and Solutions adjusted EBITDA reached $162 million versus $67 million a year earlier, helped by a global specialty-product shortage, pricing, lower crude costs and strong production. Montana/Renewables also improved: management’s adjusted operating-profit measure including tax-credit value reached $27 million versus $16 million. More importantly, Montana Renewables now plans roughly 200 million gallons of annual sustainable-aviation-fuel capacity by year-end 2028 for only $137 million of remaining project capital, with no outside equity required. Those strengths are real, but current specialty margins may normalize.

What could change the storyMore regulatory relief and sustained margins could justify the valuation; weaker margins or delays would expose it.

The biggest upside is regulatory relief and execution. New 2025 refinery exemptions should remove about $170 million of renewable-fuel-credit liabilities, while another roughly $309 million tied to 2022-2024 remains under discussion and judicial review. The renewable-fuels expansion could also scale without selling ownership to outside investors. The bear case is that today’s valuation already assumes strong second-quarter margins persist. Shares outstanding rose from about 80.0 million at year-end 2023 to 87.8 million in June 2026, nearly 10% dilution, meaning each share represents a smaller ownership slice.

AI: News

Refinery exemptions grantedRegulators erased about $170 million of renewable-fuel credit liabilities, directly improving Calumet’s balance-sheet picture.

Calumet said on September 2 that the Environmental Protection Agency had granted full exemptions for two 2025 small-refinery petitions. The decision removes 71 million renewable-fuel credits from the balance-sheet accrual, valued at about $170 million at June 30. Roughly 129 million credits, valued near $309 million, remain tied to earlier partial exemptions and legal review. Shares gained about 3% that session; financial coverage explicitly linked investor enthusiasm to the exemption news.

Cheaper renewable expansionMontana Renewables cut its expansion budget dramatically while keeping most planned capacity growth and avoiding new equity.

On September 1, Montana Renewables replaced a much larger expansion plan with a $137 million remaining-capital program, down from the previously contemplated $1.2 billion. It still targets roughly 200 million gallons of annual sustainable-aviation-fuel capacity by year-end 2028, using existing equipment and only a final $34 million government-backed loan draw. No outside equity is planned. Shares rose about 3.6% that day, although timing alone cannot prove the announcement caused the move.

Strong but noisy quarterSecond-quarter operating momentum improved sharply, but the reported loss showed how noisy Calumet’s earnings remain.

On August 7, Calumet reported a $95.9 million second-quarter net loss, while management’s adjusted operating-profit measure including tax-credit value reached $175.2 million and Specialty Products and Solutions more than doubled to $161.7 million. Operating cash flow was $92.3 million, and management highlighted $115 million of July debt retirement. The stock fell about 5.7% that day before rebounding about 15% the next session, showing investors were weighing strong operations against the headline loss.

High-cost debt retiredCalumet retired expensive debt, lowering interest costs and showing that stronger operations were being used to delever.

On July 8, Calumet announced redemption of $100 million of 9.75% senior notes due 2028 at 102.438% of principal, plus accrued interest. It later repaid another $15.5 million terminal financing arrangement on July 31. The first move directly cuts high-cost debt and future interest expense. Shares gained about 4.4% on July 8, and contemporaneous financial coverage attributed the move to the debt-reduction announcement.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$4.14B	$4.19B	$4.18B	$4.69B
Gross profit	$245.7M	$230.8M	$451.7M	$351.7M
Gross margin	5.94%	5.51%	10.80%	7.50%
Operating expenses	$137.0M	$222.7M	$184.5M	$219.8M
Operating income	$108.7M	$8.1M	$267.2M	$131.9M
Operating margin	2.63%	0.19%	6.39%	2.81%
EBITDA	$257.5M	$157.1M	$414.0M	$230.2M
EBITDA margin	6.22%	3.75%	9.90%	4.91%
Net income	−$33.8M	−$222.0M	$48.1M	−$173.3M
Net profit margin	−0.82%	−5.30%	1.15%	−3.70%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.39	-$2.67	$0.59	-$2.04
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.39	-$2.67	$0.59	-$2.04

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈16.53%of listed shares

Heritage Group14.52M shares · Jun 5, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of CLMT
Holder	% owned
Heritage Group	≈16.53%14.52M shares
Two Seas Capital LP	7.54%6.62M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	5.96%5.23M shares
Wasserstein Management, L.P.	4.51%3.96M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.95%3.47M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.93%3.45M shares
Adams Asset Advisors, LLC	2.28%2.01M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.23%1.96M shares
BARCLAYS PLC	1.60%1.41M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.17%1.03M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.12%981.35K shares
Straumins Jennifer	≈1.07%943.44K shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	0.92%811.48K shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	0.87%762.08K shares
MORGAN STANLEY	0.81%708.21K shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	0.70%617.14K shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.70%615.26K shares
Voleon Capital Management LP	0.70%612.51K shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	0.63%552.79K shares
Fleming Bruce A	≈0.63%549.96K shares

Percentages use 87.84M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$80.3K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)33$33.25M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 15, 2026Form 4	Heritage GroupTenPercentOwner,Other	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	627.0K	$32.54	$20.40M	12.98M
Apr 1, 2026Form 4	Sajkowski Daniel JDirector	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	3.3K	$34.46	$114.1K	82.0K
Dec 4, 2025Form 4/A	Sajkowski Daniel JDirector	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	2.0K	$0.00	$0.00	85.3K
Dec 4, 2025Form 4	Boss John G.Director	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	1.0K	$0.00	$0.00	28.8K
Dec 4, 2025Form 4	Sajkowski Daniel JDirector	SellCommon Stock, par value $0.01 per share	2.0K	$0.00	$0.00	167.3K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)

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