Canadian National Railway Co (CNI)

Price$123.37Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 12:08 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong growth is already reflected in a demanding valuation.

The verified U.S. market quote implies roughly 22 times expected 2026 earnings after translating CN's Canadian-dollar results. CN earned C$7.57 per diluted share in 2025 and now expects mid-to-high single-digit adjusted earnings growth in 2026, suggesting roughly C$8.0-C$8.2 per share. First-half free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, was C$1.84 billion. Annualizing that cash suggests a valuation around 30 times free cash flow. That is reasonable for a strong railroad, but not clearly cheap.

Big pictureCN has produced durable cash through freight cycles, though its volumes still rise and fall with industry demand.

The supplied SEC-derived history shows positive net income in 2020 and, in older 2009 quarters, operating cash flow exceeding capital spending by roughly C$300 million per quarter. More complete recent filings reinforce that durability: 2025 free cash flow reached C$3.34 billion, up 8%, and first-half 2026 free cash flow rose 19% to C$1.84 billion. The business is still cyclical. In early 2026, grain and fertilizers grew strongly while metals, forest products and coal declined, showing how commodity and industrial traffic can offset one another rather than move together.

Business strengthA hard-to-replicate rail network supports pricing power, while debt remains manageable rather than exceptionally low.

CN's nearly 20,000-mile network links Canada's coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, creating infrastructure competitors cannot easily duplicate. Adjusted debt was 2.61 times adjusted operating cash earnings at mid-2026, versus 2.51 times at year-end 2025, a manageable level but not a large balance-sheet cushion. Capital returns are meaningful: CN repurchased about 15 million shares for C$2 billion in 2025 and another 2.9 million for C$454 million in the second quarter of 2026. Those buybacks have reduced share count rather than merely offsetting dilution.

What could change the storyFaster network growth could justify today's premium, while weaker traffic or stubborn costs would undermine it.

The bull case strengthened when CN raised 2026 expectations to low single-digit traffic growth and mid-to-high single-digit adjusted earnings growth. New Union Pacific access toward Mexico and Kansas City could widen the addressable market. The bear case is that today's valuation already assumes continued earnings and cash growth. Second-quarter revenue climbed 11%, yet the adjusted operating ratio, the share of revenue consumed by operating costs, worsened to 62.2% from 61.7%. If freight growth returns to flat levels or costs keep absorbing revenue gains, a roughly low-20s earnings multiple would become difficult to defend.

AI: News

Guidance raised after strong quarterCN beat second-quarter expectations and raised its outlook, strengthening confidence in near-term earnings growth.

On July 24, CN reported second-quarter revenue of C$4.75 billion, up 11%, while adjusted earnings per share increased 11% to C$2.08. First-half free cash flow rose 19% to C$1.84 billion. Management raised its 2026 assumptions from roughly flat traffic to low single-digit growth and now expects mid-to-high single-digit adjusted earnings growth. The shares initially rose about 1% before the market open but finished lower that day, so the mixed trading reaction should not be attributed solely to the results.

Union Pacific access agreementsTwo binding agreements could extend CN deeper into Mexico and major Midwestern rail markets.

On July 22, CN and Union Pacific announced agreements giving CN new operating rights between Memphis and Eagle Pass, supporting Canada-to-Mexico freight, plus potential new access around Kansas City and St. Louis if Union Pacific's proposed Norfolk Southern merger closes. CN also agreed not to oppose that merger. CNI rose over the following session, but timing alone cannot establish that the agreements caused the move. Economically, the agreements matter because they could add routes and customers without CN building an equivalent new long-distance network.

Jansen potash contractA new BHP rail agreement gives CN exposure to a large future source of fertilizer traffic.

On June 5, CN announced a transportation agreement with BHP for potash from the Jansen mine in Saskatchewan to export terminals on Canada's West Coast. Jansen is one of the world's largest new potash developments, so production ramping successfully could create durable bulk-rail volumes for CN over many years. The companies did not disclose contract revenue or guaranteed shipment volumes, making the valuation impact difficult to quantify. The investment significance is therefore strategic rather than immediately measurable in earnings.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2020

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2020

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2020
Revenue	$17.30B	$17.05B	$16.83B	$17.11B	$2.63B
Operating expenses	$745.0M	$642.0M	$554.0M	$556.0M	—
Operating income	$6.59B	$6.33B	$6.60B	$6.84B	—
Operating margin	38.07%	37.11%	39.20%	39.98%	—
EBITDA	$9.12B	$8.63B	$9.03B	$9.04B	—
EBITDA margin	52.68%	50.66%	53.64%	52.84%	—
Net income	$4.72B	$4.45B	$5.63B	$5.12B	$619.1M
Net profit margin	27.28%	26.09%	33.43%	29.92%	23.52%
Basic EPSper basic share	CA$7.58	CA$7.02	CA$8.55	CA$7.46	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	CA$7.57	CA$7.01	CA$8.53	CA$7.44	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Ownership data is not available for this listing yet.

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

View community

It’s quiet here.

No posts about CNI yet. Start the conversation.

Write the first post

Canadian National Railway Co (CNI)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Owners

Insider buys & sells

Community posts

It’s quiet here.