Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL)

Price$14.84Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-10 18:27 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market values an unfinished mine too richly for its current evidence.

Using 92.7 million shares, the observed quote implies roughly $1.36 billion of equity value. After subtracting about $90.7 million of net cash, the business value is near $1.27 billion. Dividing that by Apollo’s 5.41 million gold-equivalent ounces—different metals translated into gold using price and recovery assumptions—gives about $234 per resource ounce, or roughly $491 per higher-confidence indicated ounce. That is demanding before any economic study, reserve, permit, construction budget, or revenue, supporting an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureApollo is large and growing, but it still produces no cash.

Collective remains a pre-production explorer: 2025 revenue was zero, its net loss was $49.9 million, and operating cash use rose to $35.9 million from $22.6 million in 2024. In the second quarter of 2026, it lost $20.1 million and used $13.9 million in operations plus $4.4 million on capital spending. That equals roughly $18.2 million of negative free cash flow, meaning cash consumed after running and investing. With no mine, metal cycles affect project expectations rather than current sales.

Business strengthStrong drilling and recoveries improve the project, while cash limits near-term financing risk.

The June balance sheet reported $93.7 million of cash, $3.0 million of debt, and current assets almost four times current liabilities. That cushions near-term drilling, although the filing says cash cannot fund exploration, mine construction, and all option obligations. Apollo also showed 95% gold, 92% silver, 85% copper, and up to 74% tungsten recovery in tests; recovery is the share of contained metal a plant can extract. Those results are encouraging, but broader testing and full engineering remain unfinished.

What could change the storyA credible mine plan could justify optimism, but delays or dilution would hurt.

The bull case is measurable: 40,000 metres of post-cut-off drilling were excluded from the resource, while 79% of the Ramp Zone’s interpreted circumference lacked enough drilling for inclusion. The bear case is financing and time. Shares rose 51% from 61.2 million at 2023 year-end to 92.7 million in June 2026; the company pays no dividends or buybacks and mainly funds work through new equity. The price requires the economic assessment targeted for late 2028 to show strong margins after construction costs, alongside licensing progress without major dilution.

AI: News

Maiden Resource PublishedApollo’s first resource confirmed scale, but investors still lack proof of an economic mine.

On September 8, Collective reported 2.58 million gold-equivalent ounces indicated, meaning supported by denser drilling, plus 2.83 million inferred ounces supported by less evidence. The open-pit portion contains 2.20 million ounces at a stated 3.4-to-one waste-to-ore ratio, while the deeper Ramp Zone contains 1.24 million ounces. These are resources, not proven mineable reserves. Shares closed 11.5% lower in the next session, although timing alone does not establish that the announcement caused the decline.

Northern Extension FoundNew high-grade drilling extended Apollo and raised the chance of future resource growth.

On September 1, two holes outlined a 100-metre northern and 170-metre vertical extension outside Apollo’s resource boundary. The stronger hole returned a 141.4-metre drill interval averaging 4.88 grams per tonne gold-equivalent, including 38 metres at 15.46 grams. These are drill-hole lengths, not confirmed mineable widths. The shares gained 7.9% in the following session, but that timing provides only uncertain evidence that investors were reacting to the discovery.

Strong Recoveries ReportedStrong metal recoveries reduced processing uncertainty, though full engineering tests remain unfinished.

On August 25, testing of more than 130 core samples produced recoveries of 95% for gold, 92% for silver, and 85% for copper using conventional methods; tungsten recovery reached 74%. Recoveries measure how much contained metal processing can capture, so stronger results can support future revenue and cost assumptions. The shares rose 2.1% that session, although the timing cannot prove causation. Testing across different rock types and grades remains necessary before designing a commercial plant.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$0	$0	$0	$0
Operating expenses	$41.9M	$23.8M	$19.4M	$16.4M
Operating income	−$42.0M	−$23.8M	−$19.4M	−$16.4M
EBITDA	−$41.9M	−$23.8M	−$19.4M	−$17.0M
Net income	−$49.9M	−$26.9M	−$19.1M	−$17.3M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.58	-$0.33	-$0.33	-$0.36
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.58	-$0.33	-$0.33	-$0.36