CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price leaves too little protection against a normal oil-price retreat.

At $125.66 before the market opened, roughly 1.22 billion shares imply a $153 billion market value. Trailing earnings were about $7.57 per share, making the price roughly 16.6 times earnings. Trailing operating cash was $21.9 billion; subtracting planned 2026 business investment of $12–12.5 billion leaves approximately $9.4–9.9 billion of free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and investment. That equals only 6.2–6.5% of market value before considering debt, despite unusually strong recent oil prices.

Big pictureCash stayed sturdy, but profits still swing sharply with oil and gas prices.

Revenue rose from $49.4 billion in 2024 to $51.8 billion in 2025, yet net income fell 14% to $8.0 billion. Operating cash barely changed at about $19.8 billion, showing greater durability than reported profit. Cyclicality remains severe: the company lost $2.7 billion in 2020 but earned $18.7 billion in 2022. In the June 2026 quarter, profit nearly doubled to $3.9 billion as the average selling price rose 36%, even though production declined about 6% from a year earlier.

Business strengthA solid balance sheet and large cash returns soften, but cannot remove, oil-price swings.

June 2026 cash was $6.6 billion against $23.3 billion of debt, leaving $16.7 billion of net debt. Short-term assets exceeded short-term obligations by $6.7 billion, providing useful flexibility. Over the latest four quarters, ConocoPhillips spent about $5.3 billion on buybacks and $4.1 billion on dividends. However, the Marathon Oil share deal caused dilution: reported income and earnings imply average shares rose roughly 6% in 2025. The June 2026 share base near 1.22 billion suggests subsequent buybacks have reversed part, but not all, of that increase.

What could change the storyDelivered project growth could justify the price; weaker commodity prices would expose its thin cushion.

The strongest bull case is management’s planned $7 billion annual free-cash-flow improvement by 2029, supported by Willow, liquefied-natural-gas projects, cost savings and new resources. Delivering free cash flow above roughly $14 billion while reducing shares and debt would make today’s valuation more defensible. The bear case is simpler: if operating cash returns to 2025’s $19.8 billion while annual investment remains $12–12.5 billion, free cash flow falls to $7.3–7.8 billion, only 4.8–5.1% of current market value. That would leave little compensation for commodity and project risk.

$125.66 price considered

AI: News

Quarterly profit nearly doubledHigher selling prices nearly doubled quarterly profit, despite lower production and unchanged full-year guidance.

On August 6, ConocoPhillips reported second-quarter net income of $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, versus $2.0 billion and $1.56 a year earlier. Its average selling price increased 36% to $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent, while production declined to 2.248 million barrels per day. Operating cash reached $7.4 billion. Shares gained 1.5% that day, but attributing the move solely to earnings is uncertain because leadership news and oil-market developments occurred concurrently.

Leadership succession announcedA longtime finance leader will take over, preserving continuity while shifting responsibility for major growth projects.

On August 6, ConocoPhillips named finance chief Andy O’Brien as its next president and chief executive. Ryan Lance, chief executive since 2012, will move into a transitional executive-chair role, while controller Konnie Haynes-Welsh becomes finance chief. The change matters because O’Brien inherits responsibility for Willow, liquefied-natural-gas expansion and the planned $7 billion cash-flow improvement by 2029. The day’s 1.5% share gain cannot be separated reliably from the simultaneous earnings release.

Iraq redevelopment agreementThe Iraq partnership adds long-life growth potential with limited initial capital, but political risk rises.

On July 17, ConocoPhillips agreed to acquire a 42% interest in BP’s Kirkuk venture, covering producing fields with more than 3 billion gross barrels of recoverable resources. Closing is expected by year-end 2026. ConocoPhillips said significant initial capital contributions should not be required, and payment will depend on incremental production and costs. Shares rose 1.7% that day, although the timing alone does not establish that the agreement caused the move. Iraq adds resource upside alongside meaningful government and security exposure.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$51.82B	$49.42B	$48.52B	$61.05B	$34.59B	$13.66B	$32.57B	$36.42B	$29.11B	$23.69B	$30.93B	$55.52B	$58.25B	$62.00B	$66.07B	$63.34B	$149.34B	$240.84B	$187.44B
Research & development	$78.0M	$81.0M	$81.0M	$71.0M	$62.0M	$75.0M	$82.0M	$78.0M	$100.0M	$116.0M	$222.0M	$263.0M	$258.0M	$221.0M	$193.0M	$172.0M	$190.0M	$209.0M	—
Operating expenses	$10.33B	$8.75B	$7.69B	$7.01B	$5.69B	$4.34B	$5.32B	$5.21B	$5.16B	$5.64B	$7.02B	$8.91B	$7.24B	$6.79B	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$7.99B	$9.24B	$10.96B	$18.68B	$8.08B	−$2.70B	$7.19B	$6.26B	−$855.0M	−$3.62B	−$4.43B	$6.87B	$9.16B	$8.43B	$12.44B	$11.36B	$4.41B	−$16.35B	$11.89B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$6.36	$7.82	$9.08	$14.62	$6.09	-$2.51	$6.43	$5.36	-$0.70	-$2.91	-$3.58	$5.54	$7.43	$6.77	$9.04	$7.68	$2.96	-$10.73	$7.32
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.35	$7.81	$9.06	$14.57	$6.07	-$2.51	$6.40	—	-$0.70	-$2.91	-$3.58	$5.51	$7.38	$6.72	$8.97	$7.62	$2.94	-$10.73	$7.22

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys4$2.26M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)14$148.55M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 10, 2026Form 4	Mulligan SharmilaDirector	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$119.00	$234.9K	0
Mar 31, 2026Form 4	Lance Ryan MichaelChairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock · indirect	113.2K	$132.71	$15.03M	350.0K
Mar 24, 2026Form 4	Rose Kelly BrunettiSVP & General Counsel	SellCommon Stock	7.7K	$130.03	$1.00M	25.3K
Mar 23, 2026Form 4	Olds Nicholas GExecutive Vice President	SellCommon Stock	7.0K	$127.06	$888.7K	5.4K
Mar 20, 2026Form 4	Lance Ryan MichaelChairman and CEO	SellCommon Stock	506.8K	$127.26	$64.50M	6.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells