CARVANA CO. (CVNA)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares price in years of strong growth, leaving little room for setbacks.

At $75.59, Carvana’s 718 million basic shares imply roughly $54.3 billion of equity value. Adding June net debt of $2.54 billion gives about $56.8 billion of enterprise value, the value of the operating business including debt. That equals roughly 19–21 times management’s $2.7–$3.0 billion 2026 adjusted profit forecast, which excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and selected items. The price is also about 48 times annualized first-half income attributable to shareholders. Those demanding valuations support an overvalued verdict despite exceptional growth.

Big pictureSales and profits surged, but cash generation still trails the reported earnings.

Revenue rose 49% to $20.32 billion in 2025, while operating income nearly doubled to $1.88 billion. Operating cash was $1.04 billion; after $147 million of capital spending, free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $889 million. First-half 2026 revenue reached $13.81 billion, but free cash flow was only $243 million versus $560 million of income attributable to shareholders. Rapid inventory and receivables growth can consume cash, so the profit improvement is real but not yet proven across a full used-car cycle.

Business strengthThe turnaround is real, while debt and share issuance still limit downside protection.

June 2026 cash of $2.63 billion remained below $5.17 billion of debt, although net debt improved dramatically from $7.78 billion at the end of 2022 to $2.54 billion. Current assets of $8.01 billion comfortably exceeded $2.04 billion of current liabilities, but much of that asset base depends on selling vehicles and financing receivables. Capital allocation has favored debt repair rather than dividends or repurchases. Share-based compensation was $51 million in first-half 2026 and $96 million in 2025, creating continuing dilution even though May’s five-for-one split itself changed no owner’s percentage stake.

What could change the storyLasting market-share gains could justify more, while weaker profit per car would expose the price.

The strongest bull case is Carvana’s 38% second-quarter unit growth while holding only about 2% of United States used-car retail, leaving a long runway if its logistics advantage lasts. The bear case is that gross profit per vehicle fell about 6% and used-car demand, financing availability and loan-sale gains can weaken when rates or credit losses rise. At roughly 19–21 times forecast adjusted profit, the price assumes years of rapid growth near today’s margins. Sustained growth above 25% with annual free cash flow exceeding $1 billion would help; falling margins or cash below that level would weaken the case.

$75.59 price considered

AI: News

Record quarter, cautious outlookCarvana posted record growth, but its yearly profit forecast fell short of elevated market expectations.

On July 29, Carvana reported 197,325 retail vehicles sold, up 38%, and $7.38 billion of revenue, up 52%. Consolidated net income was $513 million, while $310 million was attributable to Carvana shareholders in the supplied financial data. Adjusted profit reached $769 million, but the $2.7–$3.0 billion full-year forecast disappointed analysts. Shares closed 7.4% lower on July 30. Reporting linked the reaction to guidance and lower profit per vehicle, though price timing cannot prove sole causation.

New secured loanCarvana secured substantial new financing, potentially improving its costly debt structure and repayment schedule.

On August 12, Carvana announced the pricing and upsize of a $1.66 billion senior secured term loan. The accessible announcement confirmed the amount but did not provide enough verified terms here to calculate interest savings. The financing demonstrates improved access to credit and could reduce refinancing pressure, although its value depends on the final rate, maturity and use of proceeds. Shares gained 1.7% the following session; that timing is consistent with a favorable reading but does not establish causation.

Five-for-one stock splitThe split lowered the quoted share price without changing Carvana’s underlying business value or ownership percentages.

Approved by shareholders and effective May 7, the split converted every Class A and Class B share into five shares, with split-adjusted trading beginning May 8. It did not create economic value or dilute existing owners by itself, but it makes older price and per-share figures incomparable unless adjusted. Shareholders also approved a new incentive plan, while authorized shares increased proportionally. Future equity awards can dilute owners; that is a separate issue from the purely mechanical split.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	$20.32B	$13.67B	$10.77B	$13.60B	$12.81B	$5.59B	$3.94B	$1.96B	$858.9M	$365.1M	$130.4M
Gross profit	$4.19B	$2.88B	$1.72B	$1.25B	$1.93B	$794.0M	$507.0M	$196.7M	$68.1M	$19.2M	$1.3M
Operating income	$1.88B	$990.0M	−$80.0M	−$2.35B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$1.41B	$210.0M	$450.0M	−$1.59B	−$135.0M	−$171.0M	−$115.0M	−$55.5M	−$62.8M	−$93.1M	−$36.8M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$10.22	$1.72	$4.12	-$15.74	-$1.63	—	—	—	—	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$8.45	$1.59	$0.75	-$15.74	-$1.63	-$2.63	-$2.45	—	—	—	—

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$2.2K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)3872$3.75B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	PLATT IRA J.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	7.5K	$68.00	$510.0K	186.5K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4	PLATT IRA J.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	7.5K	$67.65	$507.4K	194.0K
Jun 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	QUAYLE J DANFORTHDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	14.5K	$70.00	$1.02M	215.0K
Jun 8, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Taira ThomasPresident, Special Projects	SellClass A Common Stock	5.6K	$67.15	$375.8K	315.1K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Palmer Stephen RVice President of Accounting	SellClass A Common Stock	120	$71.59	$8.6K	153.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CARVANA CO. (CVNA)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells