DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (DG)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced, with recovery gains already partly reflected.

At the August 14 close of $123.28, Dollar General trades at about 16.8 times the midpoint of management’s 2026 earnings guide of $7.20–$7.45 a share. A 15–18 times range, reasonable for a slow-growing retailer with recovering margins and fixed lease costs, implies roughly $110–$132. Fiscal 2025 free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was $2.39 billion, an attractive 8.8% of the $27.2 billion equity value. That cash figure may be unusually strong, so the mixed signals support Fair-priced.

Big pictureSales and profit are recovering, but cash improvement still needs proving.

Revenue rose 5.2% to $42.7 billion in fiscal 2025, while earnings climbed 34% to $6.85 a share from $5.11. Operating cash flow rose 21% to $3.63 billion and free cash flow reached $2.39 billion. However, first-quarter 2026 free cash flow fell to $365 million from $556 million a year earlier as inventory and investment absorbed cash. Same-store sales—sales from locations open at least a year—grew 2.0%, below the full-year 2.2%–2.7% guide. The recovery is real, but not yet smooth.

Business strengthDebt is falling, while dividends remain covered and dilution stays modest.

Cash increased to $1.35 billion and debt fell to $4.56 billion by May 1, cutting net debt to $3.21 billion from $6.63 billion in early 2023. Current assets of $8.47 billion exceeded current liabilities of $7.24 billion. Still, the store network carried $11.14 billion of lease liabilities in January 2026, so fixed rent limits downside protection. Fiscal 2025 free cash flow comfortably covered $520 million of dividends. No shares were repurchased in the last three fiscal years; shares outstanding have edged slightly higher since early 2024.

What could change the storyCleaner stores could lift profits, while weak shoppers and rising costs threaten them.

The bull case is continued inventory-loss reduction: first-quarter losses fell to $153 million from $176 million, helping gross margin rise 0.65 percentage points. Economic strain can attract wealthier trade-down shoppers, but it also squeezes Dollar General’s lower-income core. If traffic stays positive and operating margin approaches management’s 6%–7% long-term target, earnings could outgrow sales. The bear case is fuel, markdowns, and low-margin essentials offsetting those gains. At $123.28, the market roughly requires the $7.20–$7.45 earnings guide plus modest growth; missing sales guidance would weaken that case.

$123.28 price considered

AI: News

Profit outlook raisedFirst-quarter profit beat expectations, and management raised its full-year earnings forecast.

On June 2, 2026, Dollar General reported $10.79 billion in sales, $2.00 of earnings per share, and 2.0% same-store sales growth. Operating profit rose 10.8%, helped by lower inventory losses and damage. Management lifted its 2026 earnings range to $7.20–$7.45 from $7.10–$7.35. Reuters reported shares about 3% higher before the market opened; that reaction indicates improved expectations, though later trading and broader market forces can differ.

Annual recovery, cautious guideStrong yearly results showed a turnaround, but cautious guidance reset near-term expectations.

On March 12, 2026, fiscal 2025 sales rose 5.2% to $42.7 billion, operating profit increased 28.6%, and earnings reached $6.85 a share. Initial 2026 guidance called for $7.10–$7.35, despite the strong finish, and assumed no buybacks. Kiplinger reported that shares fell 6.1% that day because the forecast was below Wall Street expectations. The timing supports an association with guidance disappointment, although the wider market also declined sharply.

CEO succession announcedA grocery veteran will take over, adding both operating experience and transition risk.

On March 24, 2026, Dollar General named JJ Fleeman to replace Todd Vasos as chief executive on January 1, 2027. Fleeman brought more than 35 years in grocery retail, including digital, merchandising, and store operations. Vasos will remain chief executive until the handoff and then serve briefly as an adviser. Reuters reported shares down about 5% that morning. The announcement and decline coincided, but the exact share move cannot be attributed solely to succession concerns.

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$42.72B	$40.61B	$38.69B	$37.84B	$34.22B	$33.75B	$27.75B	$25.63B	$23.47B	$21.99B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Gross profit	$13.10B	$12.02B	$11.72B	$11.82B	$10.81B	$10.72B	$8.49B	$7.80B	$7.22B	$6.78B	$6.31B	$5.80B	$5.44B	$5.09B	$4.70B	$4.18B	$3.69B
Operating income	$2.20B	$1.71B	$2.45B	$3.33B	$3.22B	$3.55B	$2.30B	$2.12B	$2.01B	$2.06B	$1.94B	$1.77B	$1.74B	$1.66B	$1.49B	$1.27B	$953.3M
EBITDAderived	$3.25B	$2.69B	$3.30B	$4.05B	$3.86B	$4.13B	$2.81B	$2.57B	$2.41B	$2.44B	$2.29B	$2.11B	$2.07B	$1.96B	$1.77B	$1.53B	$1.21B
Net income	$1.51B	$1.13B	$1.66B	$2.42B	$2.40B	$2.66B	$1.71B	$1.59B	$1.54B	$1.25B	$1.17B	—	—	—	—	—	—
Basic EPSper diluted share	$6.87	$5.12	$7.57	$10.73	$10.24	$10.70	$6.68	$5.99	$5.64	$4.45	$3.96	$3.50	$3.17	$2.87	$2.25	$1.84	$1.05
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.85	$5.11	$7.55	$10.68	$10.17	$10.62	$6.64	$5.97	$5.63	$4.43	$3.95	$3.49	$3.17	$2.85	$2.22	$1.82	$1.04

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$121.0K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)23$10.79M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Dec 19, 2025Form 4	Wheeler Bryan DEVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc	SellCommon Stock	9.8K	$135.32	$1.32M	22.3K
Dec 16, 2025Form 4	West Roderick JEVP, Global Supply Chain	SellCommon Stock	2.3K	$133.35	$304.3K	36.1K
Dec 16, 2025Form 4	TAYLOR RHONDAEVP & General Counsel	SellCommon Stock	7.5K	$134.89	$1.01M	73.5K
Dec 12, 2025Form 4	ELLIOTT ANITA CSVP & Chief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.5K	$132.52	$333.4K	29.3K
Dec 11, 2025Form 4	Herrmann Tracey NEVP, Store Operations	SellCommon Stock	4.8K	$131.39	$637.2K	26.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (DG)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells