Duke Energy CORP (DUK)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced, offering steady income but little room for setbacks.

At $123.92, the shares cost 18.6 times the midpoint of Duke’s 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $6.55–$6.80 per share; adjusted earnings remove identified unusual items. The $4.34 annualized dividend yields about 3.5%. Combining that yield with management’s 5%–7% long-term earnings-growth target suggests an 8.5%–10.5% annual return before valuation changes. That is reasonable, not cheap, and requires successful rate recovery and financing that does not overwhelm per-share growth. The limited safety margin supports a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureRegulated earnings are rising, but construction spending still consumes more cash than operations produce.

From 2020 through 2025, revenue rose 36% to $31.7 billion, operating income increased 89% to $8.6 billion, and earnings per share climbed from $1.72 to $6.31. However, 2025 operating cash of $12.3 billion fell $1.7 billion short of $14.0 billion in construction spending. Free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was therefore negative. First-half 2026 operating cash also fell to $4.27 billion from $5.04 billion. Regulated rates make earnings comparatively durable, although weather still shifts quarterly demand.

Business strengthReliable customers support borrowing, while heavy debt and future share sales limit protection.

At March 2026, Duke held $2.14 billion of cash against $90.25 billion of debt; current assets of $13.45 billion also trailed $20.33 billion of current liabilities. Management reported $9.92 billion of available liquidity, mostly credit capacity, but debt had already risen from $62.74 billion in 2020 to $89.84 billion in 2025. Shares increased only 1.2% since 2020, yet a $6 billion share-sale program and planned $10 billion of common equity during 2027–2030 create dilution risk. The dividend consumes roughly 65% of guided earnings, leaving limited internally generated funding.

What could change the storyData-center growth can lift earnings, but regulators and financing costs decide who benefits.

The strongest bull case is Duke’s contracted demand: by May it had about 7.6 gigawatts of signed data-center agreements, with roughly 5 gigawatts under construction. That demand could support the $103 billion five-year investment plan and management’s 5%–7% earnings growth target. The bear case is that regulators limit requested rate increases while debt, interest, and new shares absorb the gains. Earnings below $6.55 or sustained growth under 5% would make 18.6 times earnings demanding; faster contracted growth and improving debt coverage would make today’s price more attractive.

$123.92 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter earnings beatSecond-quarter profit beat expectations and management kept its full-year growth target intact.

On August 4, 2026, Duke reported adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share, up from $1.25 a year earlier and above the roughly $1.29–$1.30 analyst estimate. Revenue increased 1% to $7.59 billion but missed expectations. Management retained 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80 and 5%–7% long-term growth. The earnings beat supports the operating outlook, while first-half operating cash declining to $4.27 billion shows that funding remains a constraint. No reliable evidence isolated a stock-price reaction to this report.

Lower rate settlementNorth Carolina’s proposed settlement lowers Duke’s requested increase, balancing recovery with customer affordability.

Duke announced an agreement on July 17, 2026 covering Duke Energy Carolinas’ North Carolina rate case. Reported terms would raise residential rates 5.9% in the first year and 3.6% in the second, about 9.5% cumulatively, versus Duke’s original increase of roughly 18%. The settlement still requires commission approval. Lower increases reduce political and customer pressure but also recover investment more slowly than requested, making the final regulatory order important to expected earnings and cash flow.

Data-center safeguards outlinedNew contract safeguards aim to keep data-center expansion from shifting costs onto households.

On July 23, 2026, Duke described contracts for large users that may require customer-funded connections, long commitments, financial security, exit charges, and temporary power reductions during stressed periods. These terms are intended to prevent stranded infrastructure costs if a data center is delayed or closes. Duke said added revenue could lower other customers’ bills; that outcome remains a forecast, not an established fact. The framework matters because data-center demand underpins much of Duke’s planned investment and future earnings growth.

Dividend increasedA small dividend increase supports income, but it adds cash demands during heavy investment.

On July 14, 2026, the board raised the quarterly common dividend by $0.02, or 1.9%, to $1.085 per share. The annualized $4.34 payment yields approximately 3.5% at the observed price and equals about 65% of the midpoint of 2026 adjusted earnings guidance. The increase reinforces Duke’s income appeal and remains within management’s 60%–70% payout target. However, dividend growth trails the stated earnings-growth target and consumes cash while construction spending exceeds operating cash generation.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$31.74B	$30.05B	$28.67B	$28.68B	$24.49B	$23.25B	$24.35B	$23.76B	—	$22.74B	$22.37B	$22.51B	$22.76B	$19.62B	$14.53B	$14.27B	$12.73B	$13.21B	$12.72B
Operating income	$8.63B	$7.93B	$7.07B	$6.01B	$5.50B	$4.57B	$5.71B	$4.68B	$5.63B	$5.20B	$5.08B	$4.84B	$4.85B	$2.91B	$2.78B	$2.46B	$2.25B	$2.51B	$2.49B
EBITDAderived	$16.33B	$14.35B	$13.15B	$11.86B	$11.16B	$10.06B	$10.88B	$9.38B	$9.67B	$9.08B	$8.69B	$8.35B	$8.08B	$5.56B	$4.80B	$4.46B	$4.09B	$4.18B	$4.24B
Net income	$4.97B	$4.52B	$2.84B	$2.55B	$3.91B	$1.38B	$3.75B	$2.67B	$3.06B	$2.15B	$2.82B	$1.88B	$2.67B	$1.77B	$1.71B	$1.32B	$1.07B	$1.36B	$1.50B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$6.31	$5.71	$3.54	$3.17	$4.94	$1.72	$5.06	$3.76	$4.36	$3.11	$4.05	$2.66	$3.77	$3.07	$3.83	$3.00	$0.83	$1.08	$1.19
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$6.31	$5.71	$3.54	$3.17	$4.94	$1.72	$5.06	$3.76	$4.36	$3.11	$4.05	$2.66	$3.76	$3.07	$3.83	$3.00	$0.83	$1.07	$1.18

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)27$16.77M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 11, 2026Form 4	Renjel Louis E.EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff	SellCommon Stock	3.5K	$125.15	$438.0K	21.4K
May 8, 2026Form 4	Sideris Harry K.President, CEO	SellCommon Stock	20.0K	$124.37	$2.49M	96.1K
Mar 2, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Repko Regis T.SVP, System Planning&Construct	SellCommon Stock	663	$131.00	$86.9K	6.5K
Mar 2, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoEVP&CEO DECarolinas&NatGasBus	SellCommon Stock	1.2K	$132.06	$155.8K	47.0K
Mar 2, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ghartey-Tagoe KodwoEVP&CEO DECarolinas&NatGasBus	SellCommon Stock	17.1K	$131.54	$2.24M	48.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Duke Energy CORP (DUK)

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Financial statements

Insider buys & sells