ECOLAB INC. (ECL)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today’s price assumes years of unusually strong growth.

At $276.11, the shares cost 33.9 times the midpoint of management’s 2026 adjusted earnings forecast of $8.05-$8.25 per share, and 37.9 times 2025 reported earnings. The 2025 free cash flow—cash left after operating and capital spending—was $1.90 billion, only a 2.5% yield on the roughly $77.4 billion equity value. If the earnings multiple falls to 25, an illustrative 10% annual return would require roughly 15%-17% yearly earnings growth for five years, including modest dividends. That demanding assumption supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureCore demand and pricing support durable growth, but cash gains have slowed recently.

Revenue grew from $11.79 billion in 2020 to $16.08 billion in 2025, about 6% yearly, while operating cash rose from $1.86 billion to $2.95 billion. In 2025, $1.90 billion of free cash flow equaled 92% of net income, supporting durability. First-half 2026 free cash flow fell to $587 million versus $968 million of net income, partly because capital spending increased. Second-quarter sales excluding acquisitions and currency moves rose 5%; 4% pricing offset higher commodity costs despite Middle East disruptions. Soft Heavy Water and Paper demand shows some cycle exposure.

Business strengthThe business is resilient, though the CoolIT purchase leaves less balance-sheet room.

At June 30, Ecolab held $5.14 billion of cash against $11.91 billion of debt, but most acquisition financing had been raised before CoolIT closed on July 2. After paying $4.75 billion, net debt was roughly $11.5 billion by simple subtraction; management expected debt after cash to equal about three times annual adjusted cash-like operating profit. First-half free cash flow was $587 million, below the $1.09 billion spent on dividends and buybacks. Still, shares fell 0.6% to 280.3 million, so repurchases more than offset stock compensation rather than diluting owners.

What could change the storyCoolIT could justify the premium, while weaker pricing or slower cooling growth would expose it.

The bull case is measurable: Global High-Tech approaches $1.5 billion of annualized sales, CoolIT’s pre-acquisition first-half sales more than doubled, and management targets $4 billion of high-tech sales at 25% operating margins by 2030. The bear case is the price paid: CoolIT cost 29 times its estimated next-12-month cash-like operating profit before financing, taxes and non-cash depreciation, while higher per-share earnings are expected only in 2028, excluding acquisition accounting costs. Evidence improves if second-half underlying sales reach 6%-7%, margins approach 19%, and leverage returns near two times profit by end-2028; misses would expose the premium.

$276.11 price considered

AI: News

Second-Quarter Growth AcceleratesStrong second-quarter sales and a slightly higher profit forecast reassured investors about growth and pricing.

On July 28, 2026, Ecolab reported $4.42 billion of sales, up 10%, while sales excluding acquisitions and currency effects rose 5%. Adjusted earnings—profit excluding specified unusual items—were $2.09 per share, up 11% and slightly above the $2.08 consensus cited by Benzinga. Management raised 2026 guidance by $0.02 at both ends to $8.05-$8.25. Shares closed 4.24% higher at $282.90. The timing suggests investors welcomed growth and pricing progress, but it does not prove the release alone caused the move.

CoolIT Acquisition ClosesEcolab completed a costly data-center cooling purchase that adds growth but increases debt and near-term profit pressure.

On July 2, 2026, Ecolab closed the $4.75 billion cash purchase, funded with new debt. CoolIT’s year-to-date sales had more than doubled, and Ecolab said its High-Tech business was approaching $1.5 billion in annualized sales, targeting $4 billion by 2030. Including acquisition financing and accounting costs, 2026 adjusted earnings guidance became $8.03-$8.23, below the earlier $8.43-$8.63 range that excluded CoolIT. Shares rose 1.79% that day; timing alone cannot establish that the deal caused the move.

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Free cash flow

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$16.08B	$15.74B	$15.32B	$14.19B	$12.73B	$11.79B	$12.56B	$12.22B	$13.84B	$13.15B	$13.55B	$14.28B	$13.25B	$11.84B	$6.80B	$6.09B	$5.90B	$6.14B	$5.47B
Research & development	$202.0M	$207.0M	$192.0M	$190.0M	$186.0M	$185.0M	$190.0M	$193.0M	$201.0M	$189.0M	$191.0M	$197.0M	$188.0M	$183.0M	$96.0M	$88.0M	$86.0M	$86.0M	—
Operating income	$2.74B	$2.80B	$1.99B	$1.56B	$1.60B	$1.40B	$1.85B	$1.73B	$1.95B	$1.87B	$1.56B	$1.96B	$1.56B	$1.29B	$753.8M	$806.8M	$681.3M	$712.8M	$669.0M
EBITDAderived	$3.71B	$3.74B	$2.92B	$2.50B	$2.44B	$2.21B	$2.62B	$2.46B	$2.84B	$2.72B	$2.41B	$2.82B	$2.37B	$2.00B	$1.15B	$1.15B	$1.02B	$1.05B	$960.9M
Net income	$2.08B	$2.11B	$1.37B	$1.09B	$1.13B	−$1.19B	$1.58B	$1.44B	$1.52B	$1.25B	$1.02B	$1.22B	$973.6M	$701.3M	$463.3M	$530.3M	$417.3M	$448.1M	$427.2M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$7.33	$7.43	$4.82	$3.83	$3.95	-$4.20	$5.41	$4.95	$5.20	$4.20	$3.38	$4.01	$3.23	$2.41	$1.95	$2.27	$1.76	$1.83	$1.73
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$7.28	$7.37	$4.79	$3.81	$3.91	-$4.15	$5.33	$4.88	$5.12	$4.14	$3.32	$3.93	$3.16	$2.35	$1.91	$2.23	$1.74	$1.80	$1.70

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys9$3.47M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)83$534.32M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 11, 2026Form 4	Clark Benjamin M.EVP - Global Supply Chain	BuyCommon Stock	1.0K	$263.83	$263.8K	1.1K
Jun 10, 2026Form 4	Doukeris Michel DDirector	BuyCommon Stock	7.8K	$258.00	$2.00M	8.3K
Jun 9, 2026Form 4	Brown Darrell RCo-COO - Global Markets	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$260.89	$2.61M	32.7K
May 27, 2026Form 4	Vautrinot Suzanne MDirector	SellCommon Stock	1.0K	$264.98	$266.0K	11.7K
May 13, 2026Form 4	MacLennan DavidDirector	BuyCommon Stock	1.0K	$250.65	$250.7K	25.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

ECOLAB INC. (ECL)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells