Ero Copper Corp. (ERO)

Price$36.56Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-08 14:09 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong earnings are offset by a demanding cash-flow valuation.

At the observed market price, Ero trades at about fourteen times 2025 diluted earnings, using $2.53 per share from the supplied history. Yet the equity value is about twenty-eight times 2025 free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business. Using roughly 104.2 million year-end shares and about $527 million of net debt, enterprise value, which adds net debt to stock value, is about fifteen-and-a-half times 2025 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Those mixed signals support a fair-priced verdict. Pasted text MarketWatch

Big pictureCash generation rebounded sharply in 2025, but the record shows it can swing hard with the cycle.

Revenue rose to $785.8 million in 2025 from $470.3 million in 2024, while net income swung to $266.9 million from a $67.8 million loss. Operating cash flow jumped to $395.1 million. After $262.8 million of capital spending, free cash flow was about $132.4 million, reversing roughly $183.5 million of negative free cash flow in 2024. But 2022 through 2024 also showed weak or negative free cash flow, so one strong year does not prove steady through-cycle cash generation. SEC

Business strengthEro has better liquidity and rising output, but debt still limits downside protection.

Cash rose to $105.4 million at year-end 2025, and current assets slightly exceeded current liabilities, improving near-term liquidity. Net debt still stood near $527 million, so the balance sheet is not conservative for a cyclical miner. Capital allocation has also favored expansion: 2025 capital spending was $262.8 million, with no buybacks or dividends shown in the supplied history. Shares outstanding rose from about 90.2 million in 2021 to 104.2 million in 2025, while stock compensation reached $24.6 million, so dilution remains a real cost. SEC

What could change the storyHigher second-half production could justify the price, while weaker copper or project execution would expose the premium.

Second-half execution is the key swing factor. In Q2 2026 Ero produced 17,315 tonnes of copper at a mine-level cash cost of $2.42 per pound, then kept full-year copper guidance at 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes and $2.15 to $2.35 per pound. Management also cited $10 million to $15 million of annualized contract savings plus more than $20 million of 2026 smelting and refining savings. If output and costs improve as planned, today’s valuation can compress quickly; weaker copper prices or missed production would do the opposite. SEC

AI: News

Second-quarter operating reboundSecond-quarter cash flow strengthened and copper guidance held, improving confidence that the 2025 earnings step-up can continue.

On August 5, Ero reported Q2 copper production of 17,315 tonnes and operating cash flow of $137.9 million, about 49% above the prior quarter. Net debt fell by $38.0 million to $452.7 million. Copper production and cost guidance were maintained, although gold costs were raised and full-year capital spending increased to $285 million to $330 million. NYSE shares rose about 2% on August 6 and 10% on August 7, though timing alone does not prove the report caused those moves. SEC+1

Furnas resource expansionFurnas drilling expanded the growth case by showing high-grade copper and gold beyond parts of the existing resource.

On June 10, Ero reported another 24,000 meters of Furnas drilling, with more than 75,000 meters completed through May. One step-out hole returned 90 meters grading 0.74% copper and 0.50 grams per tonne gold, including 32 meters at 1.17% copper, and extended known mineralization about 115 meters down-dip. Ero said the work supports a 2027 pre-feasibility study and could help it earn a 60% project interest. This improves long-term optionality, but it does not yet create current operating cash flow. SEC

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Revenue

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2025

Net income

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$785.8M	$470.3M	$427.5M	$426.4M	$489.9M	$324.1M
Gross profit	$344.6M	$180.6M	$156.8M	$187.2M	$318.9M	$188.1M
Gross margin	43.85%	38.39%	36.69%	43.90%	65.08%	58.05%
Operating expenses	$74.0M	$71.6M	$61.6M	$57.4M	$46.7M	$37.0M
Operating income	$270.6M	$108.9M	$95.2M	$129.8M	$272.2M	$151.1M
Operating margin	34.43%	23.16%	22.27%	30.44%	55.55%	46.64%
EBITDA	$272.1M	$110.6M	$96.7M	$130.1M	$272.5M	$151.3M
EBITDA margin	34.63%	23.52%	22.62%	30.51%	55.61%	46.68%
Net income	$266.9M	−$67.8M	$94.3M	$103.1M	$202.6M	$52.5M
Net profit margin	33.96%	−14.42%	22.06%	24.17%	41.36%	16.20%
Basic EPSper basic share	$2.54	-$0.66	$0.99	$1.12	$2.27	$0.60
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.53	-$0.66	$0.98	$1.10	$2.21	$0.56

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ERO
Holder	Shares held
FIL Ltd	9.32M
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	4.77M
FMR LLC	4.49M
Invesco Ltd.	4.09M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.97M
GMT Capital Corp	2.83M
Cape Ann Asset Management Ltd	2.05M
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC	1.77M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	1.68M
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	1.55M
FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC	1.54M
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	1.44M
NORGES BANK	1.27M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.19M
Impala Asset Management LLC	1.17M
TD Asset Management Inc	1.16M
Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda	1.08M
Amundi	965.35K
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	939.11K
CastleKnight Management LP	910.18K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Ero Copper Corp. (ERO)

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