EXELON CORP (EXC)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced if management delivers its promised steady earnings growth.

Exelon’s last available close before the research time was $45.86 on August 14. Against the $2.86 midpoint of 2026 adjusted earnings guidance, that is about 16 times earnings. The annualized $1.68 dividend yields roughly 3.7%. March book value was about $28.66 per share, making the price 1.6 times book value. Those levels are reasonable, but not deeply discounted, for a regulated utility targeting 5%–7% earnings growth. Inference: the price assumes guidance and most planned growth are achieved.

Big pictureProfits are rising, but investment spending still outruns the cash the business produces.

Revenue rose 5.3% to $24.26 billion in 2025, while net income increased 12.5% to $2.77 billion and operating cash rose 12.3% to $6.25 billion. However, $8.53 billion of capital spending exceeded operating cash by $2.28 billion. That shortfall is negative free cash flow, meaning no cash remained after running and investing in the business. Exelon also paid $1.62 billion of dividends. This is normal for a growing utility, but it makes returns dependent on regulators and continuing access to financing.

Business strengthRegulated revenue is dependable, while debt and new shares weaken downside protection.

Exelon serves almost 11 million customers through regulated delivery utilities. Revenue-decoupling rules largely protect ComEd, BGE, and most PHI distribution earnings from changes in weather or electricity use, reducing economic sensitivity. Financial protection is thinner: March debt was $50.85 billion, versus $713 million of cash, and current liabilities slightly exceeded current assets. Year-end debt was about 5.7 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a rough debt-capacity measure. Shares increased 4.8% since 2020, and management expects about $3.4 billion of additional equity issuance through 2029.

What could change the storyRate approvals can unlock growth, but customer affordability can quickly delay investment.

The bull case is Exelon’s $41.7 billion four-year investment plan, expected 7.9% growth in regulated assets, and management’s near-top-end 5%–7% earnings-growth target. Data-center connections could create further grid demand. The bear case is that regulators limit customer-bill increases while debt, interest, depreciation, and new shares keep rising. PECO’s withdrawn rate requests and related $350 million spending reduction show that risk is concrete. The thesis strengthens if approvals support planned investment without added equity; it weakens if earnings growth falls below 5% or financing needs rise.

$45.86 price considered

AI: News

Guidance Holds SteadySecond-quarter earnings met expectations, and unchanged guidance kept the long-term growth case intact.

On July 30, 2026, Exelon reported $0.39 of quarterly net income per share and $0.43 of adjusted earnings, which exclude specified unusual items. Adjusted earnings increased from $0.39 a year earlier. Management maintained 2026 guidance of $2.81–$2.91 and its near-top-end 5%–7% growth target through 2029. Shares closed 3.1% lower that day at $45.58. The timing is consistent with investor disappointment, but does not prove the report caused the decline.

BGE Seeks Higher RatesBaltimore Gas and Electric requested higher rates to recover grid spending and storm costs.

On July 2, 2026, BGE applied for a $156 million annual increase in Maryland electric-distribution revenue, including a requested 10.40% return on shareholder-funded capital. A decision is expected in the first quarter of 2027. Approval would help BGE recover investment, operating, financing, and storm costs; a meaningful reduction would lower Exelon’s return on planned spending. The filing is therefore a focused test of whether regulators will support growth while customers face higher energy bills.

PECO Withdraws Rate CasesPECO withdrew planned rate increases, showing that affordability can override otherwise profitable investment.

On April 16, 2026, PECO withdrew Pennsylvania electric and gas rate requests totaling about $510 million after affordability discussions with state stakeholders. Exelon subsequently planned to remove roughly $350 million of related spending. This reduces near-term customer pressure, but also delays the asset investment on which a regulated utility earns returns. Associated Press reported that owners of Pennsylvania utilities lagged peers in following days; that relative move cannot be attributed conclusively to PECO’s decision alone.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$24.26B	$23.03B	$21.73B	$19.08B	$17.94B	$16.66B	$34.44B	−$62.0M	$207.0M	$48.0M	$29.45B	$27.43B	$24.89B	$23.49B	$19.06B	$18.64B	$17.32B	$18.86B
Operating expenses	—	—	—	$15.76B	$15.26B	$14.48B	$30.10B	$32.14B	$29.62B	$28.11B	$25.06B	$25.04B	$21.24B	$21.02B	$14.58B	$13.92B	$12.57B	—
Operating income	$5.15B	$4.32B	$4.02B	$3.31B	$2.68B	$2.19B	$4.37B	$3.89B	$4.39B	$3.21B	$4.41B	$3.10B	$3.67B	$2.37B	$4.48B	$4.73B	$4.75B	$5.30B
EBITDAderived	$8.79B	$7.92B	$7.53B	$6.64B	$5.71B	$5.08B	$8.63B	$8.24B	$8.22B	$7.15B	$6.86B	$5.41B	$5.82B	$4.25B	$5.83B	$6.80B	$6.58B	$7.61B
Net income	$2.77B	$2.46B	$2.33B	$2.17B	$1.83B	$1.95B	$3.03B	$2.08B	$3.87B	$1.20B	$2.25B	$1.82B	$1.73B	$1.17B	$2.50B	$2.56B	$2.71B	$2.74B
Basic EPSper diluted share	—	—	—	—	$1.74	$2.01	$3.02	$2.07	$3.99	$1.21	$2.55	—	—	—	—	$3.88	$4.10	$4.16
Diluted EPSper diluted share	—	—	—	—	$1.74	$2.01	$3.01	$2.07	$3.98	$1.21	$2.54	$1.88	$2.00	$1.42	$3.75	$3.87	$4.09	$4.13

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)2$304.8K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 3, 2025Form 4	Honorable Colette DEVP, CLO & Corporate Secretary	SellCommon Stock	1.5K	$40.57	$59.4K	2.3K
Feb 3, 2025Form 4	Glockner DavidEVP Compliance, Audit & Risk	SellCommon Stock	6.1K	$40.57	$245.5K	56.7K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

EXELON CORP (EXC)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells