Ferrovial N.V. (FER)

Price$58.16Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because current earnings and cash generation leave little room for disappointment.

Reported figures imply a demanding valuation. Market data put Ferrovial near 65 times trailing earnings, while the supplied 2025 figures imply roughly 43 times that year's diluted earnings. Price-to-earnings means how much investors pay for each unit of annual profit. The 2025 net profit of €888 million was also far below 2024's €3.24 billion, which included large asset-sale effects. My inference is that today's valuation already assumes sustained growth from North American toll roads and successful delivery of major new projects.

Big pictureUnderlying cash generation is improving, but reported profits remain unusually sensitive to asset sales and project timing.

Reported revenue rose from €7.55 billion in 2022 to €9.63 billion in 2025, while operating cash flow nearly doubled from €1.00 billion to €1.93 billion. That supports the durability of the operating businesses. Ferrovial also received €880 million of dividends from operating toll-road investments during 2025. However, net income swung from €341 million in 2023 to €3.24 billion in 2024 and €888 million in 2025, showing how disposals can distort earnings. Capital-expenditure data supplied here are incomplete, so a dependable free-cash-flow valuation cannot be calculated.

Business strengthValuable toll roads and a strong cash position provide protection, while buybacks partly offset share issuance.

Ferrovial ended 2025 with €3.2 billion of net cash on the supplied consolidated balance sheet. At mid-2026, management separately reported €4.7 billion of liquidity and €1.3 billion of net cash excluding infrastructure-project companies. Its 48.29% stake in Canada's 407 ETR is particularly valuable: Ferrovial received about €444 million of 407 ETR dividends in 2025. Capital returns are meaningful too. By June 19, the current repurchase program had bought 5.58 million shares for €324 million, helping counter dilution risk from share-based dividend programs.

What could change the storyFaster toll-road growth could justify the premium, while project delays or weaker traffic would expose it.

The strongest bull evidence is operational: first-half 2026 adjusted operating cash earnings rose 21.6% on a comparable basis, and the new Tennessee I-24 project adds a large long-term concession opportunity. The bear case is that today's valuation requires these projects to convert into dependable cash without major setbacks. New Terminal One at JFK was 92% complete in July, but its Phase A completion plan had shifted to March 2027. Continued double-digit highway growth would strengthen the valuation case; slower growth, further airport delays, or rising project funding needs would weaken it.

AI: News

Tennessee highway selectionFerrovial won a major Tennessee toll-road opportunity that could deepen its profitable North American infrastructure franchise.

On August 20, Ferrovial announced that its consortium had been selected for Tennessee's I-24 Southeast Choice Lanes. The 26-mile project carries an estimated $9.2 billion capital cost and would be the state's first public-private transportation partnership. Ferrovial and its partners would finance, design, build, operate and maintain it. The award expands the pipeline of long-duration toll assets, although the eventual value to Ferrovial depends on final contracts, financing terms, ownership economics and successful construction.

Strong first-half operationsFirst-half sales and operating earnings grew quickly, strengthening evidence that North American highways are delivering.

Ferrovial reported on July 28 that first-half 2026 revenue reached €4.7 billion, up 11.3% on a comparable basis, while adjusted operating cash earnings rose 21.6% to €746 million. Net profit fell to €258 million from €540 million because the prior period contained asset-sale gains, so the decline does not by itself indicate weaker operations. The stronger highway and construction performance supports higher future earnings expectations, though the already-rich valuation means continued growth matters more than a single strong half.

JFK terminal delayThe new JFK terminal remains near completion, but another schedule delay increases execution and timing risk.

In its July 28 results materials, Ferrovial said New Terminal One at JFK was 92% constructed and had 32 airline agreements or letters of intent. However, the project submitted a remedial completion plan targeting March 2027 for Phase A, later than the originally expected opening. Remaining work centers on systems integration, coordination, testing and commissioning. The delay does not establish a permanent loss of value, but it postpones operating benefits and highlights the delivery risk embedded in Ferrovial's large-project growth strategy.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	€9.63B	€9.15B	€8.52B	€7.55B
Operating expenses	€8.17B	€7.81B	€7.52B	€6.83B
Operating income	€967.0M	€3.11B	€625.0M	€423.0M
Operating margin	10.04%	33.99%	7.34%	5.60%
EBITDA	€2.00B	€3.55B	€1.03B	€722.0M
EBITDA margin	20.75%	38.81%	12.05%	9.56%
Net income	€1.15B	€3.49B	€511.0M	€305.0M
Net profit margin	11.95%	38.15%	6.00%	4.04%
Basic EPSper basic share	€1.24	€4.47	€0.46	€0.25
Diluted EPSper diluted share	€1.24	€4.47	€0.46	€0.25

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of FER
Holder	Shares held
TCI FUND MANAGEMENT LTD	20.94M
Invesco Ltd.	19.81M
Amundi	18.17M
LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	14.82M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	13.65M
UBS Group AG	10.9M
Banco Santander, S.A.	9.81M
NORGES BANK	9.19M
BARCLAYS PLC	8.31M
CITIGROUP INC	8.16M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	8.13M
FMR LLC	7.54M
Legal & General Group Plc	5.78M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	4.58M
FIL Ltd	4.42M
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Holding S.A.	4.15M
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	4.01M
LANDESBANK BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG	3.25M
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	3.17M
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\	2.82M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

View community

It’s quiet here.

No posts about FER yet. Start the conversation.

Write the first post

Ferrovial N.V. (FER)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Owners

Insider buys & sells

Community posts

It’s quiet here.