Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)

Price$22.59Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-05 23:22 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares still price in years of fast growth and much better cash generation.

At the observed close, Firefly’s market value is about $3.5 billion using the latest disclosed share count. Subtracting roughly $426 million of June net cash leaves about $3.1 billion for the operating business, or roughly 7.1 times the midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance. Yet second-quarter gross profit was only about 20 cents per revenue dollar and quarterly free cash flow was negative by about $106 million. That combination makes the current valuation demanding rather than conservative.

Big pictureRevenue is surging, but the business is still losing cash faster than sales can fund it.

Revenue is scaling unusually fast: 2025 sales reached $159.9 million, and the first half of 2026 already produced $198.6 million. But the first half still showed a $190.9 million operating loss and $185.2 million of negative free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business was deeply negative. Growth also includes SciTec, acquired in late 2025, so the huge year-over-year increase is not purely organic. The business has not yet shown that growth converts into durable earnings. Pasted text

Business strengthA large backlog and strong cash cushion reduce near-term funding risk, but execution remains demanding.

Firefly ended June with about $459.8 million of cash and roughly $426 million of net cash in the supplied history; its filing also reported $635.3 million of cash plus short-term investments and only $27 million of financial debt. Backlog was $1.47 billion, up from $1.35 billion at year-end. New lunar, defense-software, and launch awards broaden the opportunity. Still, contract revenue depends on launches and milestones, so quarters can swing sharply, and firm-fixed-price work leaves Firefly exposed when costs run above plan.

What could change the storyThe valuation improves if backlog becomes profitable cash; repeated losses or new dilution would weaken it.

The bull case is straightforward: convert the roughly $1.5 billion backlog, raise launch cadence, and let SciTec’s defense work lift scale while spending grows more slowly than revenue. The bear case is continued cash burn and further share issuance. Shares outstanding rose from 159.3 million at year-end to 166.2 million by June, including 4 million newly sold shares and about 0.5 million issued for Space-ng. Sustained positive free cash flow and materially higher gross margins would make today’s valuation easier to defend; continued losses would do the opposite.

AI: News

Record quarter, losses persistSecond-quarter sales beat expectations and guidance stayed strong, but heavy losses kept profitability concerns alive.

On August 11, Firefly reported second-quarter revenue of $117.7 million, up 45.5% from the prior quarter. Its adjusted loss per share also beat analyst expectations, while full-year revenue guidance remained $420 million to $450 million. The same day brought a $94 million Space Force award and an extended Lockheed Martin launch agreement, so an earnings-only stock reaction cannot be cleanly isolated. For investors, the key tension is strong demand versus cash losses that still remain large.

New lunar contractA new lunar contract adds meaningful backlog and reinforces Blue Ghost as a repeatable business.

On June 30, NASA, the U.S. space agency, awarded Firefly a $144 million contract for another Blue Ghost lunar mission targeted for 2028. It became Firefly’s sixth contracted Moon mission and added a meaningful, visible project to backlog. Contemporary market coverage reported the shares gained about 1.2% around the announcement. That timing is consistent with a positive reaction, but it does not prove the contract was the only cause of the move.

Follow-on offering pressureThe June share sale raised cash but diluted owners and added heavy insider selling pressure.

On May 28, Firefly priced a follow-on sale of 12 million shares: 4 million newly issued by the company and 8 million sold by existing owners, with an additional seller option. Firefly later reported about $181.6 million of net proceeds from its portion. Reuters reported the stock fell 3.8% before the next open and about 6.2% in morning trading. The event strengthened liquidity but also highlighted dilution and substantial insider selling.

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Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023
Revenue	$159.9M	$60.8M	$55.2M
Gross profit	$30.7M	−$11.4M	$26.6M
Gross margin	19.18%	−18.69%	48.16%
Research & development	$200.1M	$149.5M	$117.9M
Operating expenses	$291.4M	$198.1M	$158.5M
Operating income	−$260.7M	−$209.5M	−$131.9M
Operating margin	−163.08%	−344.54%	−238.75%
EBITDA	−$237.5M	−$196.9M	−$127.2M
EBITDA margin	−148.59%	−323.90%	−230.23%
Net income	−$298.3M	−$231.1M	−$135.5M
Net profit margin	−186.63%	−380.20%	−245.24%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$4.83	-$20.74	-$13.05
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$4.83	-$20.74	-$13.05

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈30.51%of listed shares

Glow NS Holdings, LLC / ROWE DAVID H. / AEROEQUITY GP, LLC / Glow Holdings Aggregator, LLC / GREENE MICHAEL ROBERT50.72M shares · Jun 1, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of FLY
Holder	% owned
Glow NS Holdings, LLC / ROWE DAVID H. / AEROEQUITY GP, LLC / Glow Holdings Aggregator, LLC / GREENE MICHAEL ROBERT	≈30.51%50.72M shares
AE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS, LP	20.78%34.53M shares
Markusic Thomas E	≈4.50%7.48M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	3.55%5.9M shares
MITSUI & CO LTD	≈3.03%5.03M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.51%4.18M shares
Weiser Marc Allen	≈2.44%4.05M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.16%3.59M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.85%3.07M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	1.83%3.05M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	1.68%2.79M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.63%2.71M shares
Tema ETFs LLC	1.37%2.28M shares
Tidal Investments LLC	1.30%2.17M shares
Phoenix Financial Ltd.	1.09%1.81M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	0.99%1.65M shares
UBS Group AG	0.98%1.63M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	0.93%1.55M shares
Capital World Investors	0.75%1.24M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	0.69%1.15M shares

Percentages use 166.21M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys6$1.20M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)4$384.34M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	Glow NS Holdings, LLC +4TenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock · indirect	2.80M	$48.00	$134.45M	17.69M
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	Glow NS Holdings, LLC +4TenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock · indirect	5.20M	$48.00	$249.55M	33.02M
May 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel	SellCommon Stock	3.8K	$45.12	$169.9K	142.8K
Apr 17, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Wheeler David LeighGeneral Counsel	SellCommon Stock	3.8K	$45.04	$169.6K	142.8K
Aug 6, 2025Form 4/A	Lusczakoski Jonathan DonaldDirector	BuyCommon Stock	2.2K	$45.00	$100.0K	2.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)

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