Fervo Energy Co (FRVO)

Price$18.16Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 13:17 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares still price in major future success despite almost no current commercial revenue.

At the observed quote, Fervo’s equity value is about $5.8 billion and enterprise value, which subtracts net cash from market value, is about $4.1 billion. Yet management currently anticipates only $60 million to $80 million of 2027 revenue, implying roughly 58 times enterprise value to the midpoint. That is a demanding valuation for a company still commissioning its first large project. The discount from the IPO helps, but a value investor still lacks an earnings-based margin of safety.

Big pictureFervo has exceptional contracted demand, but the business remains in a costly pre-commercial buildout.

Fervo had only $174,000 of revenue in the first half of 2026 and lost $87.7 million, while its filing says large-scale commercial operations have not begun. The offset is unusually strong future demand: before the latest Google agreement, Fervo reported 658 megawatts under binding power contracts and a $7.2 billion contracted revenue backlog. Long-term power contracts can make future operating revenue less cyclical than spot electricity prices. Cape Station Phase I targets first power in late 2026, and management now targets 1.1 gigawatts installed by 2030.

Business strengthThe IPO created a strong cash cushion, but construction spending can consume it rapidly.

Fervo ended June with about $2.11 billion of cash against roughly $338 million of total debt in the supplied financial history, leaving substantial net cash. However, operating cash flow was negative in both 2025 and the first half of 2026, while capital spending reached about $399 million in the first half. Management expects another $850 million to $900 million of capital spending in the second half of 2026. The IPO funded this runway, but it also increased the common share base to roughly 295 million shares.

What could change the storyGoogle strengthens the bull case, while transmission limits expose how fragile near-term revenue remains.

The September Google agreement adds 396 megawatts expected in 2028 and includes an option for roughly 600 megawatts more by 2030, reinforcing demand for Fervo’s technology. The bear case is timing and infrastructure: management’s preliminary 2027 revenue view fell to $60 million to $80 million because of expected transmission curtailment, even if Fervo’s wells work as planned. The thesis improves if Phase I reaches first power and curtailment proves temporary; it weakens if commissioning slips or project spending outruns the cash cushion.

AI: News

Google power agreementA major Google power contract sharply improved confidence in Fervo’s long-term commercial demand.

On September 1, Fervo announced a 396-megawatt power purchase agreement with Google for Cape Station capacity expected in 2028, plus an option for about 600 megawatts more by June 2030. Reuters reported shares jumped in premarket trading, and the stock ultimately closed about 28% higher. The deal does not create near-term earnings, but it materially strengthens the evidence that large customers will contract for Fervo’s planned geothermal output.

Transmission curtailment shockTransmission limits cut expected 2027 revenue and triggered a sharp reassessment of execution risk.

On August 12, Fervo reported a $55.9 million quarterly net loss and $226.5 million of capital spending. During the earnings call, management said it currently anticipates $60 million to $80 million of 2027 revenue because transmission lines serving Cape Station may be curtailed. Shares closed about 16.6% lower that day. The market reaction is consistent with investors assigning more weight to grid timing and commercialization risk, although price movement alone cannot prove a single cause.

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Revenue

2024

2025

Net income

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024
Revenue	$138,000	$199,000
Research & development	$133,000	$97,000
Operating expenses	$48.6M	$41.7M
Operating income	−$48.8M	−$41.8M
Operating margin	−35,366.67%	−21,024.12%
EBITDA	−$49.1M	−$40.2M
EBITDA margin	−35,573.19%	−20,182.91%
Net income	−$57.8M	−$41.1M
Net profit margin	−41,875.36%	−20,658.29%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.20	-$0.14
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$5.66	-$3.31

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of FRVO
Holder	Shares held
Devon Energy Corp/DE	35.73M
Capricorn Investment Group LLC	34.23M
Yadigaroglu Ion	34.23M
TIGF II Direct Strategies LLC - Series 7 / Saluja Dipender / Technology Impact Fund, LP / TIF Partners, LLC	34.23M
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	7.57M
CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD	7.3M
Capital Research Global Investors	6M
BlackRock, Inc.	4.53M
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	4.43M
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	4M
Liberty Mutual Group Asset Management Inc.	3.88M
UBS Group AG	3.67M
NORGES BANK	3.2M
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	3.09M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.08M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	3.06M
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.66M
Invesco Ltd.	2.59M
FMR LLC	2.32M
Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC	2.16M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Fervo Energy Co (FRVO)

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