GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares price in years of strong growth, leaving little room for setbacks.

MarketWatch showed $1,074.80 in premarket trading, after a $1,063.25 close. With 266.33 million shares, that implies about $286.3 billion of stock value and $276.0 billion after subtracting $10.27 billion of net cash. Management’s 2026 midpoint implies $12.0 billion of free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—and roughly $6.0 billion of adjusted operating cash earnings. The price is therefore about 24 times guided cash flow and 46 times those operating earnings. Because customer down payments boosted cash, this supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureA cash-rich balance sheet protects the business, but expensive buybacks weaken that advantage.

June cash of $13.12 billion exceeded debt of $2.85 billion, leaving a substantial shock absorber after the $5.28 billion Prolec purchase. However, current liabilities of $55.83 billion exceeded current assets of $47.43 billion, partly because customers paid ahead for future work that GE Vernova must still deliver. First-half buybacks totaled $3.67 billion, while dividends used $273 million. Shares fell from 275.88 million at 2024 year-end to 266.33 million, containing dilution despite $257 million of 2025 stock compensation. Repurchasing near today’s valuation is less compelling than the first-quarter average of $720.

Business strengthPower and grid demand are lifting profits, while wind remains a costly weak spot.

Revenue rose 9% in 2025 to $38.07 billion, operating income nearly tripled to $1.39 billion, and free cash flow increased from $1.70 billion to $3.71 billion. Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 22%, while operating income rose 73% to $653 million. The $176 billion backlog supports future activity, but cash and accounting profit require care: the filing attributes much of 2026’s cash surge to higher customer down payments, while first-quarter net income included a $4.5 billion pre-tax acquisition gain. Wind orders fell sharply in the second quarter, and management still expects roughly $400 million of 2026 losses there.

What could change the storyThe valuation works only if the backlog becomes high-margin profit for years.

The strongest bull case is the combination of 116 gigawatts of contracted or reserved gas equipment, more than $5 billion of 2026 data-center orders, and management’s 2028 targets of $56 billion revenue and a 20% adjusted operating cash-earnings margin. That would produce about $11.2 billion of such earnings. The bear case is valuation: today’s business value is still almost 25 times that 2028 target, before allowing for time or execution risk. Sustained cash generation after the down-payment wave would strengthen the case; missed margin targets, persistent wind losses, or costly buybacks would weaken it.

$1,074.80 price considered

AI: News

Guidance jumps, shares fallStrong orders and cash raised forecasts, but a profit miss exposed the stock's high expectations.

On July 22, GE Vernova reported $24.2 billion of orders, up 88% organically, and a $176 billion backlog. Revenue rose 22% to $11.1 billion. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $45.5-$46.5 billion and free-cash-flow guidance to $11.5-$12.5 billion from $6.5-$7.5 billion. However, reported diluted profit of $2.47 per share missed the cited $3.04 consensus, and the shares fell 8.7% that day. The mixed reaction shows that strong growth was already heavily reflected in expectations.

Microsoft power deal advancesA long-term Microsoft agreement moved a turbine-backed data-center project closer to construction.

On June 22, Chevron’s Energy Forge One signed a 20-year agreement to supply a Microsoft data center from Project Kilby in West Texas. Planned capacity is approximately 2.67 gigawatts, with most generation coming from large GE Vernova turbines and related electrical equipment. This advances GE Vernova’s earlier seven-turbine collaboration toward a funded customer use case and could expand future service revenue. However, Chevron still expects a final investment decision by year-end 2026, GE Vernova’s contract value was undisclosed, and no isolated stock reaction was reliably established.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$38.07B	$34.94B	$33.24B	$29.65B
Gross profit	$7.54B	$6.08B	$4.82B	$3.46B
Research & development	$1.20B	$982.0M	$896.0M	$979.0M
Operating income	$1.39B	$471.0M	−$923.0M	−$2.88B
EBITDAderived	$2.24B	$1.64B	$41.0M	−$1.08B
Net income	$4.88B	$1.55B	−$438.0M	−$2.74B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$17.92	$5.65	-$1.60	-$10.00
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$17.69	$5.58	-$1.60	-$10.00

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)5$20.51M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 1, 2026Form 4	Abate VictorChief Executive Officer, Wind	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	4.8K	$948.08	$4.57M	1.8K
May 14, 2026Form 4	Potvin Matthew JosephChief Accounting Officer	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	2.3K	$1.1K	$2.47M	3.5K
Mar 3, 2026Form 4	Baert StevenChief People Officer	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	5.3K	$850.00	$4.50M	12.6K
Aug 26, 2025Form 4	Parks Kenneth ScottChief Financial Officer	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	3.3K	$620.00	$2.05M	7.6K
Apr 28, 2025Form 4	Zingoni Maria VictoriaChief Executive Officer, Power	SellCommon stock, par value $0.01 per share	18.8K	$368.16	$6.92M	0

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)

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Insider buys & sells