GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)

Price$41.07Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-17 12:53 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong growth is already built into today’s price.

Using management’s C$900 million 2026 adjusted free cash flow guide—cash left after operating costs, investment and specified management adjustments—the equity is valued at roughly 23–24 times that cash after using management’s 1.40 Canadian-dollar-per-U.S.-dollar assumption and about 371 million year-end shares. A simple model with a 9% required return and 3% long-run growth needs about 11% annual cash-per-share growth for five years. That is achievable, but demanding enough to make the shares look balanced rather than cheap.

Big pictureCash generation is improving, but reported 2025 profit greatly overstates ongoing earning power.

Revenue rose to C$6.62 billion in 2025 from C$6.14 billion, but the supplied history shows operating cash flow fell to C$1.32 billion while capital spending stayed heavy at C$1.14 billion, leaving only about C$175 million before management adjustments. Reported net income of C$3.83 billion is not a useful run-rate because the Environmental Services sale created large gains; continuing-operations net income was only C$241 million. Encouragingly, management’s adjusted free cash flow reached C$756 million in 2025 and second-quarter 2026 cash performance improved sharply.

Business strengthRecurring waste services support pricing power, while lower debt improves resilience but still leaves the balance sheet stretched.

The core collection and disposal business showed strong pricing: second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 16.3%, with 6.1% from core pricing. Management expects about a 30.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, meaning profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as a percentage of revenue. Balance-sheet repair is real: supplied debt fell from C$10.00 billion in 2024 to C$7.42 billion in 2025. Still, net debt—debt minus cash—was C$7.34 billion, current liabilities were C$2.00 billion against C$1.16 billion of current assets, and goodwill nearly equaled accounting equity.

What could change the storySECURE could lift cash per share, but new shares and economic swings could erase that upside.

Capital allocation improved sharply in 2025: shares outstanding fell from about 412 million to 371 million as GFL used divestiture proceeds to repurchase more than 10% of its shares and reduce debt. The proposed C$6.4 billion SECURE purchase is 80% stock and 20% cash, so it will reverse some of that shrinkage. Management expects 12%–15% higher adjusted free cash flow per share. The bear case is overpaying for a more economically sensitive business; the bull case combines that cash growth with further debt reduction and possible buyout interest.

AI: News

Take-private interest confirmedGFL confirmed preliminary buyout interest, creating possible upside but no guaranteed transaction.

On July 29, GFL said it had received unsolicited preliminary expressions of interest from multiple parties and formed an independent board committee to oversee any discussions. A July 3 Bloomberg report had already said GFL was considering going private; Toronto shares rose as much as 11% during that session. The timing strongly suggests takeover expectations mattered, but it does not prove they caused the entire move. The company warns there is no assurance that discussions will produce a transaction.

Guidance raised againSecond-quarter growth beat expectations, and management raised its full-year cash and profit outlook again.

On July 29, GFL reported second-quarter revenue of C$1.95 billion, up 16.3%, and adjusted EBITDA of C$591 million, up 14.8%. Adjusted free cash flow rose to C$237 million from C$137 million. Management then lifted 2026 guidance to C$7.51–C$7.53 billion of revenue, about C$2.29 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and about C$900 million of adjusted free cash flow. The higher cash target improves the case that recent operating improvements can translate into shareholder value.

SECURE acquisition announcedThe SECURE purchase promises faster cash growth, but investors disliked its price and greater sensitivity to economic swings.

On April 13, GFL agreed to buy SECURE Waste Infrastructure for about C$6.4 billion of enterprise value, meaning the purchase value including debt, paying 80% in GFL shares and 20% in cash. Management expects the deal to increase adjusted free cash flow per share by 12%–15%. GFL shares fell about 6% in Toronto morning trading after the announcement. Reuters reported analyst concern that GFL was paying roughly 11–12 times operating cash profit for a business more exposed to economic swings than traditional solid waste.

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Revenue

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2025

Net income

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2025

Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$6.62B	$6.14B	$7.52B	$6.76B	$5.14B	$4.20B	$3.35B
Gross profit	$1.37B	$1.13B	$1.27B	$797.6M	$473.7M	$190.1M	$273.8M
Gross margin	20.67%	18.39%	16.89%	11.80%	9.22%	4.53%	8.18%
Operating expenses	$1.02B	$906.0M	$1.01B	$757.7M	—	—	—
Operating income	$346.0M	$222.8M	$261.1M	$39.9M	—	—	—
Operating margin	5.23%	3.63%	3.47%	0.59%	—	—	—
EBITDA	$2.00B	$1.01B	$2.21B	$1.59B	—	—	—
EBITDA margin	30.22%	16.41%	29.47%	23.56%	—	—	—
Net income	$3.81B	−$737.7M	$32.2M	−$311.1M	−$606.8M	−$994.9M	−$451.7M
Net profit margin	57.64%	−12.02%	0.43%	−4.60%	−11.81%	−23.71%	−13.50%
Basic EPSper basic share	CA$10.24	-CA$2.11	-CA$0.13	-CA$1.08	-CA$1.83	-CA$3.10	-CA$2.50
Diluted EPSper diluted share	CA$9.99	-CA$2.11	-CA$0.13	-CA$1.08	-CA$1.83	-CA$3.10	-CA$2.50

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of GFL
Holder	Shares held
BC Partners PE LP	29.91M
FMR LLC	22.64M
ONTARIO TEACHERS PENSION PLAN BOARD	22.45M
Capital Research Global Investors	21.92M
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	10.87M
NORDEA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AB	10.48M
MAVERICK CAPITAL LTD	10.2M
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA	9.11M
BlackRock, Inc.	8.1M
FIL Ltd	7.74M
CIBC Asset Management Inc	7.49M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	7.26M
Pictet Asset Management Holding SA	6.67M
Beutel, Goodman & Co Ltd.	5.72M
FRED ALGER MANAGEMENT, LLC	5.43M
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\	4.47M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	3.93M
NORGES BANK	3.36M
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp	3.06M
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP	2.93M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)

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