Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HMY)

Price$20.27Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-08 12:12 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because cheap-looking earnings depend on unusually strong metal prices.

At the observed market value, the shares are about 8½–9 times Harmony’s guided FY26 headline earnings of US$2.45–2.65 per share. Headline earnings are a South African measure that strips out certain one-off items, including asset impairment reversals. That looks inexpensive, but FY25 earnings were only US$1.27 per share, implying roughly 18 times the prior year’s profit. FY25 free cash flow—cash left after operating and capital spending—was R10.8 billion, only about a 4% yield on the observed equity value. The price therefore needs much stronger earnings to persist.

Big pictureCash generation has improved sharply, but mining profits still swing heavily with gold prices.

Revenue rose from R49.3 billion in FY23 to R73.9 billion in FY25, while operating cash flow climbed from R9.9 billion to R22.6 billion. Free cash flow increased from R2.3 billion to R10.8 billion over that span, yet FY22 still produced a R1.1 billion net loss. In FY26 Harmony received US$3,811 per gold ounce against sustaining costs of US$2,195. If gold fell to US$3,000 with costs unchanged, that simple per-ounce cushion would roughly halve, showing how quickly strong current profits can normalize.

Business strengthA stronger balance sheet and copper growth improve resilience, though large projects consume substantial cash.

FY25 ended with R11.1 billion of net cash, but the cash-funded MAC Copper purchase moved Harmony to R5.5 billion of net debt by December 2025. Even then, debt was only 0.18 times annualized operating earnings before interest and major non-cash charges, with R14.8 billion of liquidity. July refinancing replaced acquisition bridge debt with cheaper, longer facilities. The deal avoided direct share issuance, limiting dilution, although stock compensation rose to R712 million and no buybacks were reported. The new dividend policy can return up to half of net free cash.

What could change the storySustained high metals prices would create upside; weaker prices or costly projects would erase it.

The bull case is straightforward: FY26 gold margins were wide, CSA contributed 18,207 tonnes of copper, and Eva Copper could add about 60,000 tonnes annually once operating. The bear case is capital intensity and commodity dependence. Eva requires roughly US$1.55–1.75 billion of project spending, while its base feasibility case showed only an 11% after-tax return using US$4.50 copper. If gold and copper stay elevated and Eva lands on budget, current earnings may prove durable. If metals normalize or construction overruns, the low earnings multiple could be misleading.

AI: News

FY26 earnings guidance jumpsHarmony guided to roughly double annual earnings after meeting its gold and copper operating targets.

On August 21, Harmony said FY26 earnings per share should rise 90%–108% in rand terms, while headline earnings should rise 73%–90%. Gold production reached 1.43 million ounces, CSA produced 18,207 tonnes of copper, and gold sustaining costs stayed within guidance at US$2,195 per ounce. The shares closed 6.9% higher that day. The timing is consistent with a positive response to the update, although it does not prove the announcement was the only cause.

Debt refinancing lowers riskHarmony refinanced acquisition debt on better terms, reducing financing risk while preserving funds for copper growth.

On July 28, Harmony announced new facilities totaling US$500 million, A$500 million and R7 billion. The package refinances older syndicated loans and the MAC Copper bridge facility, lowers funding costs, and extends maturities. That matters because Harmony is simultaneously funding the large Eva Copper build. The shares fell about 2% that day, so the price action does not support claiming an immediate positive market response; the investment benefit is mainly lower interest expense and stronger liquidity over time.

Gold selloff hits sharesA June gold selloff showed how quickly Harmony shares can fall when bullion expectations weaken.

During the week ended June 26, Harmony shares fell almost 12% as gold prices weakened amid rising expectations for higher interest rates. Financial coverage linked the broad gold-miner decline to bullion rather than a new Harmony operating problem. The attribution is still market commentary, not proof of a single cause. For valuation, the episode matters because most Harmony earnings still come from gold, so changes in the expected gold price can move the stock sharply even when mine performance is unchanged.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	—	R73.90B	R61.38B	R49.27B	R42.65B	R41.73B	R29.25B	R26.91B	R20.45B	R19.49B	—
Gross profit	—	R24.26B	R14.15B	R9.74B	R718.0M	R6.24B	R3.34B	−R1.96B	−R3.14B	−R375.0M	—
Gross margin	—	32.83%	23.05%	19.77%	1.68%	14.96%	11.41%	−7.27%	−15.37%	−1.92%	—
Operating expenses	—	R3.90B	R2.47B	R2.65B	R1.47B	—	R3.69B	R581.0M	R1.52B	R619.0M	—
Operating income	—	R20.36B	R11.68B	R7.09B	−R755.0M	R6.45B	−R358.0M	−R2.54B	−R4.66B	−R994.0M	—
Operating margin	—	27.55%	19.02%	14.40%	−1.77%	15.46%	−1.22%	−9.43%	−22.79%	−5.10%	—
EBITDA	—	R25.20B	R16.32B	R10.55B	R2.93B	R10.32B	R3.15B	R1.52B	−R2.09B	R1.52B	—
EBITDA margin	—	34.10%	26.59%	21.41%	6.87%	24.74%	10.77%	5.63%	−10.22%	7.82%	—
Net income	—	R14.55B	R8.69B	R4.88B	−R1.01B	R5.12B	−R850.0M	−R2.61B	−R4.47B	R362.0M	—
Net profit margin	—	19.69%	14.15%	9.91%	−2.37%	12.28%	−2.91%	−9.69%	−21.87%	1.86%	—
Basic EPSper basic share	ZAR 47.01	ZAR 23.13	ZAR 13.86	ZAR 7.80	-ZAR 1.72	ZAR 8.42	-ZAR 1.64	-ZAR 4.98	-ZAR 10.03	ZAR 0.82	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	ZAR 46.32	ZAR 22.88	ZAR 13.64	ZAR 7.77	-ZAR 1.72	ZAR 8.25	-ZAR 1.66	-ZAR 5.00	-ZAR 10.04	ZAR 0.79	—

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of HMY
Holder	Shares held
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	29.81M
BlackRock, Inc.	6.03M
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	5.07M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	4.64M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	4.35M
LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	2.62M
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	1.88M
Hamilton Capital Partners Inc.	1.48M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.16M
ALPS ADVISORS INC	1.12M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.08M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.06M
UBS Group AG	966.88K
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	880.25K
Amundi	879.17K
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	803.84K
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	778.83K
Invesco Ltd.	678.31K
Ninety One UK Ltd	675.69K
MORGAN STANLEY	670.29K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HMY)

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