HERSHEY CO (HSY)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced as recovery upside balances weak chocolate demand.

The August 14 close of $184.22 valued Hershey at about $37.0 billion. Management’s 2026 adjusted earnings forecast of $8.36 to $8.52 per share implies a price around 21.6 to 22.0 times earnings. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was approximately $2.23 billion, giving shareholders a roughly 6% cash yield. That is reasonable for durable brands, but it already assumes margins keep recovering and falling sales volumes begin stabilizing.

Big pictureCash stayed resilient through the cocoa shock, but profits and demand remain uneven.

Revenue grew from $8.15 billion in 2020 to $11.69 billion in 2025, yet 2025 operating income fell 50% to $1.44 billion as cocoa costs and accounting movements hit profits. Cash proved steadier: free cash flow was about $1.82 billion in 2025 versus $1.93 billion in 2024, then reached roughly $2.23 billion over the latest four quarters. Still, second-quarter 2026 growth relied on about 12 percentage points of pricing while total volume fell roughly 8%, showing that demand is not fully durable at higher prices.

Business strengthStrong brands fund dividends comfortably, though buybacks returned before debt meaningfully improved.

At June 28, Hershey held $791 million of cash against $5.61 billion of debt, leaving $4.82 billion of net debt. Current assets of $3.96 billion exceeded near-term liabilities of $3.35 billion, while recent operating income was roughly ten times management’s expected annual interest expense. Trailing free cash flow covered $1.12 billion of dividends about twice. However, first-half dividends and $439 million of buybacks exceeded first-half free cash flow; shares rose slightly during 2025, although they remained 2.6% below 2020 levels.

What could change the storyCheaper cocoa could lift profits, while lasting volume losses would break the recovery case.

The strongest bull case is a delayed benefit from cocoa futures falling nearly 70% from late-2024 records, combined with retained pricing and productivity savings. Commodity contracts and inventories can delay that benefit by about ten months. The bear case is that customers permanently buy less: second-quarter North American confectionery volume fell about 10%, and salty-snack supply limits restrained organic growth. Evidence of confectionery volume approaching flat while annual free cash flow stays above $2 billion would strengthen the thesis; continued steep volume declines would make today’s valuation demanding.

$184.22 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter beatHigher prices lifted sales and earnings, but falling volumes kept investors cautious.

On July 30, Hershey reported second-quarter sales of $2.79 billion, up 6.6%, and adjusted earnings of $1.90 per share, both above market estimates. Management narrowed 2026 sales growth guidance to 4.5%–5% and adjusted earnings growth to 32.5%–35%. Reuters reported that shares fell about 1% in early trading. The timing suggests investors weighed the stronger outlook against an 8% volume decline, although the price move cannot establish that explanation conclusively.

Cocoa costs retreatA steep cocoa-price decline improved the long-term margin outlook but will reach Hershey slowly.

Reuters reported on May 20 that cocoa futures had fallen nearly 70% from their late-2024 records, after previously exceeding $12,000 per metric ton. Hershey also said its Hershey’s and Reese’s products would return to original chocolate recipes in 2027. Lower cocoa costs could support profit margins or consumer promotions, but contracts and existing inventory can delay retail and manufacturing effects by roughly ten months. No reliable company-specific stock reaction was established from the announcement timing alone.

Revenue

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$11.69B	$11.20B	$11.16B	$10.42B	$8.97B	$8.15B	$7.99B	$7.79B	$7.52B	$7.44B	$7.39B	$7.42B	$1.80B	$1.50B	$1.40B	$5.67B	$5.30B	$5.13B	$4.95B
Gross profit	$3.92B	$5.30B	$5.00B	$4.50B	$4.05B	$3.70B	$3.62B	$3.58B	$3.46B	$3.17B	$3.38B	$3.34B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Research & development	$61.7M	$55.8M	$50.0M	$46.9M	$40.1M	$37.6M	$37.1M	$38.5M	$45.9M	$47.3M	$49.3M	$47.6M	$47.6M	$39.0M	$33.2M	$31.1M	$28.1M	$28.1M	—
Operating income	$1.44B	$2.90B	$2.56B	$2.26B	$2.04B	$1.78B	$1.60B	$1.62B	$1.31B	$1.26B	$1.04B	$1.39B	$1.34B	$1.71B	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDAderived	$1.95B	$3.35B	$2.98B	$2.64B	$2.36B	$2.08B	$1.89B	$1.92B	$1.58B	$1.56B	$1.28B	$1.60B	$1.54B	$1.92B	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$883.3M	$2.22B	$1.86B	$1.64B	$1.48B	$1.28B	$1.15B	$1.18B	$783.0M	$720.0M	$513.0M	$846.9M	$820.5M	$660.9M	$629.0M	$509.8M	$436.0M	$311.4M	$214.2M

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$445.4K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)441$176.36M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOLTenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock, $1.00 par value	2.8K	$179.16	$501.5K	1.35M
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOLTenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock, $1.00 par value	3.2K	$178.55	$563.1K	1.35M
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOLTenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock, $1.00 par value	4.0K	$177.56	$710.4K	1.35M
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOLTenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock, $1.00 par value	46	$176.76	$8.1K	1.36M
Jun 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOLTenPercentOwner	SellCommon Stock, $1.00 par value	604	$181.31	$109.5K	1.36M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

HERSHEY CO (HSY)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells