Samsara Inc. (IOT)

Price$40.80Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares already assume exceptional growth and cash margins, leaving little room for a normal slowdown.

Using roughly 583 million shares and $1.28 billion of cash and investments, the quote implies the operating business is valued near $21.6 billion. Against management’s fiscal 2027 revenue guide of about $2.01 billion, that is roughly 10.7 times forward sales. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—is about $235 million, so the operating business is valued at about 92 times that cash flow. In a simple model discounting future cash by 10% yearly, the price needs roughly 26%-27% annual growth for five more years and a 30% cash margin.

Big pictureSamsara is turning rapid sales growth into real cash, but profitability is still newly established.

Revenue rose 30% in fiscal 2026 to $1.62 billion and another 31% year over year in the latest quarter. The fiscal-year operating loss narrowed to $52.6 million from $190.0 million, while the latest quarter produced $7.2 million of operating profit. Free cash flow rose to about $207 million for fiscal 2026 and about $73 million in the quarter. Reported quarterly net income included a $30.3 million one-time arbitration gain, so the earnings improvement is real but less dramatic than headline profit suggests. The balance sheet is strong, with $1.28 billion of cash and investments and no borrowings disclosed.

Business strengthLong contracts and expanding large customers make revenue unusually sticky, though physical industries still face spending cycles.

About 98% of revenue comes from subscriptions, and standard contracts usually run three to five years and cannot normally be canceled. Annual recurring revenue—the yearly value of active subscriptions—reached $1.99 billion, up 30%, while customers spending more than $100,000 yearly rose to 3,363 from 2,638. Among those large customers, 96% use at least two products. That supports retention and cross-selling. Still, many customers operate in freight, construction, manufacturing, and similar sectors, so weaker activity or tighter budgets can slow new purchases and expansions even when existing contracts remain.

What could change the storyFaster product adoption could justify today’s high valuation, while share issuance or slower growth would quickly weaken it.

The strongest positive case is deeper customer expansion: revenue from large customers grew 37%, revenue from million-dollar customers grew 62%, and newer products supplied more than 20% of new annual contract value, meaning newly signed yearly business. The main negative case is share issuance. Fiscal 2026 stock compensation, which pays employees partly in shares, was about $315 million versus $207 million of free cash flow, and shares outstanding rose about 2% year over year. No dividends or material buybacks offset that issuance. Sustained growth above 25%, rising cash margins, and slower share growth would make today’s valuation easier to defend.

AI: News

First-quarter outlook raisedFirst-quarter results beat expectations and raised the yearly outlook, but investors still demanded stronger forward growth.

On June 4, Samsara reported $478.8 million of quarterly revenue, up 31%, and ending annual recurring revenue of $1.99 billion, up 30%. It also raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $2.005-$2.013 billion and about 24% growth, from 21%-22% growth previously. The market reaction was mixed: reports showed a small after-hours rise, then about a 3% premarket decline the next morning. Commentary linked the hesitation to guidance being only modestly above expectations, so attribution is not certain.

Platform expands beyond fleetsNew artificial-intelligence tools broaden Samsara beyond fleet tracking and increase what existing customers can buy.

On June 24, Samsara unveiled Agent Studio and a disposable Tracking Label with a new Shipment Center. The Tracking Label uses Samsara’s device network, which the company says covers 99% of major U.S. roads. The releases expand the platform into shipment visibility and workflow automation. That matters because newer products had already supplied more than 20% of new annual contract value for two straight quarters. A durable sales lift, rather than the product launches themselves, would determine the effect on business value.

Year-end growth heldYear-end results showed growth holding near thirty percent as profit and cash generation improved sharply.

On March 5, Samsara reported $444.3 million of fourth-quarter revenue, up 28%, and $1.89 billion of ending annual recurring revenue, up 30%. It also delivered a second straight quarter of reported accounting profit and guided fiscal 2027 revenue above then-current expectations. Shares gained about 11.5% in extended trading after the release. The reaction was widely tied to the earnings beat and stronger outlook, although one session cannot prove that those items alone caused the move.

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Revenue

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Net income

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Free cash flow

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$1.62B	$1.25B	$937.4M	$652.5M	$428.3M	$249.9M
Gross profit	$1.24B	$950.9M	$690.4M	$469.9M	$303.9M	$174.5M
Gross margin	76.74%	76.12%	73.65%	72.01%	70.94%	69.83%
Research & development	$344.6M	$299.7M	$258.6M	$187.4M	$205.1M	$99.7M
Operating expenses	$1.29B	$1.14B	$1.01B	$729.3M	$657.7M	$384.0M
Operating income	−$52.6M	−$190.0M	−$323.3M	−$259.5M	−$353.8M	−$209.5M
Operating margin	−3.25%	−15.21%	−34.49%	−39.76%	−82.61%	−83.82%
EBITDA	−$28.5M	−$169.3M	−$307.8M	−$247.7M	−$343.5M	−$198.7M
EBITDA margin	−1.76%	−13.55%	−32.84%	−37.96%	−80.18%	−79.53%
Net income	−$9.1M	−$154.9M	−$286.7M	−$247.4M	−$355.0M	−$210.2M
Net profit margin	−0.56%	−12.40%	−30.59%	−37.92%	−82.88%	−84.12%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.02	-$0.28	-$0.54	-$0.48	-$1.28	-$0.92
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.02	-$0.28	-$0.54	-$0.48	-$1.28	-$0.92

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈15.12%of listed shares

BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO56.36M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of IOT
Holder	% owned
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	≈15.12%56.36M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	≈13.06%48.69M shares
FMR LLC	≈7.08%26.41M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	≈6.39%23.81M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.75%17.72M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.16%15.49M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	≈3.31%12.35M shares
SANDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈3.04%11.35M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈2.72%10.12M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	≈2.50%9.33M shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈2.14%7.98M shares
BAMCO INC /NY/	≈2.11%7.88M shares
BROWN ADVISORY INC	≈1.91%7.11M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈1.83%6.81M shares
WESTFIELD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LP	≈1.57%5.84M shares
a16z Perennial Management, L.P.	≈1.43%5.34M shares
UBS Group AG	≈1.22%4.56M shares
Jordan Park Trust Co LLC	≈1.10%4.11M shares
Biswas Sanjit	≈1.03%3.83M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	≈0.98%3.66M shares

Percentages use 372.78M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 2, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1258$1.24B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 29, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Eltoukhy AdamSEE REMARKS	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$32.08	$65.4K	425.1K
Jun 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Eltoukhy AdamSEE REMARKS	SellClass A Common Stock	1.6K	$32.21	$52.0K	425.1K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Kirchhoff Benjamin LouisCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	SellClass A Common Stock	2.5K	$33.74	$86.0K	167.3K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Chadwick JonathanDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	500	$34.22	$17.1K	43.9K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Chadwick JonathanDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	9.5K	$33.43	$317.6K	44.4K