Jade Biosciences, Inc. (JBIO)

Price$19.91Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price leaves little room for setbacks before patient benefit is proven.

At the observed quote, 63.6 million common shares imply a $1.14 billion market value. Jade also reported 83.9 million common shares and common-equivalent securities; including those raises economic equity value to about $1.50 billion before employee options. Subtracting June’s $461.2 million of cash and investments and $0.8 million of debt leaves roughly $1.04 billion assigned to the experimental pipeline, about 2.3 times net liquid resources. With no revenue and only healthy-volunteer evidence for the lead medicine, that premium offers little margin for error.

Big pictureA deep cash reserve funds progress, but losses and research spending are accelerating.

Jade has no revenue and lost $96.1 million in 2026’s first half, after a $127.4 million full-year 2025 loss. Operating cash use was $67.7 million in the half, including $43.7 million in the second quarter; that latest pace would consume about $175 million annually. Research spending more than doubled from a year earlier to $50.1 million in the quarter. The $461.2 million liquid reserve provides roughly 2.6 years at that pace, consistent with management’s fourth-quarter 2028 runway estimate. Trial milestones and financing conditions, rather than a normal sales cycle, drive value.

Business strengthPromising early biology supports the pipeline, but patient benefit remains unproven.

The bull case begins with JADE101: among 32 healthy volunteers, the 700-milligram dose reduced immunoglobulin A, an antibody linked to the target kidney disease, by about 70% for 12 weeks. No serious adverse events or study withdrawals occurred, and longer drug persistence could permit four injections yearly. However, these were healthy people, the preferred dosing result was modeled, and comparisons with other drugs crossed separate studies. The 30-patient Phase 2 trial must still prove reduced urine protein and preserved kidney function. JADE201 and JADE301 add options but remain even earlier.

What could change the storyPatient results could justify today’s premium, while delays or more dilution could erase it.

The decisive checkpoint is interim Phase 2 patient data in 2027, followed by whether regulators allow the planned Phase 3 start in the first half. Meaningful protein reduction without new safety problems would make the billion-dollar pipeline value more defensible; weak durability or extra regulatory requirements would not. Common shares rose from 49.3 million at year-end to 63.6 million by June, first-half stock compensation reached $21.0 million, and another 20.3 million shares sit behind preferred stock and pre-funded warrants. A $200 million market-sale program leaves further dilution possible.

AI: News

Promising JADE101 dataEarly data showed durable antibody reduction, but patient benefit and competitive superiority remain unproven.

On June 1, Jade reported that JADE101 reduced immunoglobulin A by about 70% for 12 weeks at one dose, with no serious adverse events or withdrawals among the 32 healthy volunteers studied. The result supported testing injections every eight or twelve weeks and advancing a 30-patient kidney-disease trial. Shares closed 11.6% lower that day, although timing alone does not establish that the data caused the decline. The key limitation is that antibody reduction has not yet demonstrated better outcomes in patients.

Large equity financingFresh capital extended the runway while a large new share issue diluted existing owners.

On June 5, Jade closed the sale of 11.5 million new shares for $172.5 million in gross proceeds. The financing materially strengthened the balance sheet and helped extend management’s expected runway into the fourth quarter of 2028, but it also reduced each existing share’s ownership percentage. Shares closed 4.5% lower on June 5 and were 19.5% below May 29. Those moves overlapped with the June 1 trial update, so they cannot be attributed to the financing alone.

Pipeline and runway updateQuarterly results confirmed more trial progress and cash, alongside sharply rising research costs.

On August 10, Jade reported $461.2 million of cash and investments, confirmed that JADE101’s Phase 2 trial was underway, and maintained plans to begin Phase 3 in the first half of 2027. It also began treating rheumatoid arthritis patients with JADE201 and moved JADE301’s first human trial to the fourth quarter of 2026. The stock closed 1.1% lower that day and 2.9% higher the next, providing no clear immediate reaction. The update nevertheless strengthened the timetable while revealing a much higher quarterly research burn.

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Revenue

2025

Net income

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2021

2022

2023

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$0	—	—	—	—	—
Research & development	$93.1M	$53.2M	$64.2M	$38.6M	$15.0M	$7.9M
Operating expenses	$113.5M	$74.6M	$81.4M	$53.2M	$23.0M	$8.9M
Operating income	−$113.5M	−$74.6M	−$81.4M	−$53.2M	−$23.0M	−$8.9M
EBITDA	−$113.5M	−$74.3M	−$81.3M	−$53.2M	−$23.0M	−$8.9M
Net income	−$127.4M	−$69.6M	−$75.5M	−$51.5M	−$23.0M	−$9.6M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$3.19	-$2.44	-$2.87	-$2.10	-$1.87	-$125.20
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$3.19	-$2.44	-$2.87	-$2.10	-$1.87	-$125.20

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

14.36%of listed shares

FMR LLC9.13M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of JBIO
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	14.36%9.13M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	9.87%6.27M shares
Fairmount Funds Management LLC	7.16%4.55M shares
RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	5.78%3.67M shares
Venrock Adviser, LLC	5.07%3.22M shares
Bellevue Group AG	4.81%3.06M shares
Paradigm Biocapital Advisors LP	4.50%2.86M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.41%2.8M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	4.39%2.79M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.67%2.34M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.53%2.24M shares
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.	3.01%1.91M shares
Polar Capital Holdings Plc	2.91%1.85M shares
Avidity Partners Management LP	2.68%1.7M shares
Remedium Capital Partners, LLC	2.48%1.58M shares
Soleus Capital Management, L.P.	2.44%1.55M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.32%1.48M shares
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	1.94%1.23M shares
Logos Global Management LP	1.77%1.13M shares
Versant Venture Management, LLC	1.56%991.78K shares