Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL)

Price$3.41Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe valuation prices in meaningful AI leasing wins, leaving less room for delays or weaker economics.

Keel Infrastructure Corp. trades on Nasdaq and the TSX as KEEL. Its equity value is roughly $2.3 billion, while recent losses make a normal price-to-earnings ratio, which compares valuation with profit, unusable; market data also puts the stock near seven times recent book value, meaning accounting net assets. Investors are therefore paying mainly for future HPC and AI lease economics, not today's shrinking legacy operations. That premium is reasonable only if Keel converts scarce power and permitting progress into durable, financeable customer contracts.

Big pictureCash is substantial, but debt and construction spending make the runway less effortless than headlines suggest.

Liquidity is a clear cushion: Keel reported about $819 million on August 7, including roughly $698 million of unrestricted cash and $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin. Against that, June contractual long-term debt principal totaled about $1.05 billion, mostly due after 2030. Q2 adjusted EBITDA, a management measure of operating profitability before several financing and accounting items, was negative $24 million, and first-half property purchases plus equipment and construction prepayments exceeded $100 million. Management says resources cover at least twelve months, while also acknowledging that 2026-2027 growth may need additional capital.

Business strengthScarce connected power and a large North American pipeline are real assets, but customer conversion remains unproven.

Keel's core strength is access to power: management cites a 2.2-gigawatt North American development pipeline with established grid interconnections, while three priority sites are in active customer negotiations. Permitting and long-lead equipment work have advanced, and the new Moses Lake resiliency agreement supports campus readiness. The weakness is commercialization: HPC activities had not yet become a separate operating segment in Q2. Until leases are signed, results remain exposed to the volatile, declining economics of legacy Bitcoin operations and heavy development spending.

What could change the storySigned leases can unlock upside; delays, cost overruns, or fresh financing would push value lower.

The bull case assumes Keel signs one or more multi-year leases at priority sites, converts 2027 power into contracted capacity, and funds construction mainly with project debt or customer-backed financing rather than common equity. The bear case assumes leasing slips beyond 2027, build costs rise, legacy cash burn continues, and another equity raise or convertible issuance dilutes owners. Existing capped-call structures soften potential dilution from convertible notes, debt that can convert into shares, but they do not remove construction, financing, customer-concentration, or execution risk.

AI: News

Moses Lake backup-power dealPowerSecure agreed to deliver scalable standby generation for Keel's Moses Lake data center campus.

On September 9, PowerSecure, a Southern Company subsidiary, announced an agreement to design and deliver a customized backup-resiliency system for Moses Lake. The modular PowerBlocks setup is intended to support operational continuity, peak shaving, and future campus expansion. This is useful execution progress because reliable backup power is essential for data centers, but it is not a customer lease and does not by itself establish revenue or returns from the site.

Q2 losses deepenSecond-quarter revenue fell sharply as Bitcoin operations wound down, while liquidity remained substantial.

On August 10, Keel reported Q2 revenue of $30 million, down 50% year over year, and an operating loss of $141 million, including $84 million of non-cash depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $24 million. The company also reported approximately $819 million of liquidity as of August 7 and said multiple prospective tenants were negotiating across its three priority sites. The quarter shows strong funding capacity but weak current earnings during the transition.

Sherbrooke power moves forwardLocal approval advanced a 96-megawatt Québec campus, though provincial review still must clear.

On July 15, Keel said the City of Sherbrooke approved agreements enabling a planned transfer and operation of 96 MW of existing capacity with Hydro-Sherbrooke, alongside a land purchase agreement. The city also approved recategorizing that power from Bitcoin mining to HPC and AI use. The power transfer still requires review and approval by Québec's economy ministry, and the land purchase remains subject to conditions, so the project has advanced without becoming fully de-risked.

Convertible financing closesKeel raised long-dated low-coupon capital, improving flexibility while adding debt and potential dilution.

On June 9, Keel closed $458 million of 1.25% convertible senior notes due 2032. Convertible notes are debt that can turn into shares under specified conditions. The company said proceeds would support general corporate purposes, including long-lead equipment deposits and letters of credit for data center development. Capped-call transactions were purchased to reduce potential dilution if the notes convert, but the financing still increases leverage. The raise materially strengthened near-term liquidity while making future project returns and disciplined capital allocation more important for shareholders.

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Revenue

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2020

2021

2022

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2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$229.3M	$192.9M	$146.4M	$142.4M	$169.5M	$34.7M
Gross profit	−$18.9M	−$32.4M	−$21.5M	$10.5M	$111.1M	$2.9M
Gross margin	−8.25%	−16.78%	−14.69%	7.38%	65.56%	8.28%
Operating expenses	$130.7M	$75.2M	$50.6M	$2.8M	$751,000	$524,000
Operating income	−$149.6M	−$107.6M	−$72.1M	−$284.0M	$63.6M	−$6.7M
Operating margin	−65.25%	−55.77%	−49.28%	−199.41%	37.55%	−19.40%
EBITDA	−$27.0M	$42.2M	$12.7M	−$211.6M	$88.1M	$4.8M
EBITDA margin	−11.76%	21.86%	8.65%	−148.57%	51.99%	13.70%
Net income	−$284.5M	−$54.1M	−$108.9M	−$175.6M	$22.1M	−$16.3M
Net profit margin	−124.11%	−28.03%	−74.42%	−123.32%	13.06%	−46.94%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.52	-$0.13	-$0.42	-$0.85	$0.14	-$0.19
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.52	-$0.13	-$0.42	-$0.85	$0.13	-$0.19

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

7.13%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.43.97M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of KEEL
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	7.13%43.97M shares
Situational Awareness LP	4.29%26.45M shares
Monarch Alternative Capital LP	4.26%26.29M shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	3.76%23.18M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.53%15.6M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.25%13.85M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.12%13.1M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.06%12.68M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.89%11.64M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	1.76%10.84M shares
UBS Group AG	1.56%9.62M shares
Hudson Bay Capital Management LP	1.25%7.7M shares
BIT Capital GmbH	1.24%7.66M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.17%7.23M shares
Graham Capital Management, L.P.	1.07%6.61M shares
Vident Advisory, LLC	1.06%6.51M shares
CastleKnight Management LP	1.03%6.37M shares
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	1.00%6.19M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	0.87%5.38M shares
Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC	0.84%5.15M shares