Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)

Price$39.98Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 11:53 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Rich enterprise-value-to-operating-profit multipleThe valuation implies a high multiple on forecast operating profit.

Using the share count and the cited share price, Karman’s equity value is approximately $6.04 billion. Adding debt and subtracting cash produces an enterprise value near $6.76 billion, or the value of shares plus debt minus cash. Against management’s 2025 adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast of $215 million to $222.5 million, the implied multiple is roughly 30 to 31 times. That is demanding for an industrial supplier even with strong growth.

Revenue growth must remain unusually strongCurrent valuation leaves limited room for execution mistakes.

Management expects 2025 revenue of approximately $730 million to $745 million, compared with $493 million in 2024. That implies growth of roughly 48% to 51%. The premium valuation therefore depends on rapid program expansion, favorable production timing, and continued customer adoption. Any contract delays, manufacturing bottlenecks, or aerospace spending slowdown could reduce growth while leaving the share price exposed to multiple compression.

Earnings support remains relatively thinReported net income is modest relative to the market value.

The company reported quarterly net income of $7.644 million, $7.713 million, $7.794 million, and $14.032 million across the four quarters described. Together, those figures equal approximately $37.2 million. Compared with the estimated $6.04 billion equity value, the resulting trailing earnings multiple is about 162 times. That ratio is not a complete valuation measure for a high-growth company, but it shows how much future earnings expansion investors are already pricing in.

Backlog improves visibility, not valuation certaintyA large backlog supports growth but carries delivery risk.

Management cites approximately $1.5 billion of backlog, with more than 80% expected to convert into sales over the next five years. This provides useful revenue visibility and supports the growth outlook. However, backlog is not the same as near-term revenue or profit. Conversion depends on customer schedules, qualification milestones, manufacturing capacity, and contract economics. The stock can still be overvalued if execution falls short of the expectations embedded in the current enterprise value.

AI: News

Earnings outlook points to rapid expansionManagement forecasts strong 2025 revenue and adjusted operating profit growth.

Karman’s first-quarter update presented a growth-focused outlook, including 2025 revenue guidance of approximately $730 million to $745 million and adjusted operating profit guidance of $215 million to $222.5 million. Management also highlighted a backlog near $1.5 billion. These figures support the company’s aerospace and defense growth narrative, but they also establish a demanding execution standard. The investment case requires the company to convert backlog into profitable shipments at a rapid pace.

Investor enthusiasm appears tied to defense exposureThe market narrative emphasizes aerospace demand and rising defense activity.

Recent coverage portrays Karman as a supplier positioned to benefit from increased aerospace and defense spending. Its products and programs may gain from missile, space, and satellite activity, where customers value specialized engineered components. That exposure can support long-term growth, but sector enthusiasm may also increase valuation sensitivity. If funding priorities change, procurement timing slows, or investors rotate away from defense growth names, the stock could weaken even without a major operational setback.

Growth story faces integration and production risksExpansion creates opportunities but also raises operational complexity.

Karman’s growth profile appears to rely on scaling production across specialized aerospace and defense programs. Faster growth can pressure labor availability, supplier reliability, quality systems, working capital, and delivery schedules. These risks matter because the valuation assumes both strong revenue growth and meaningful operating profit expansion. A missed shipment, slower qualification, or cost overrun could affect quarterly results and challenge the premium multiple assigned by investors.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$471.5M	$345.3M	$280.7M	$226.3M
Gross profit	$190.0M	$132.1M	$105.5M	$80.9M
Gross margin	40.30%	38.27%	37.60%	35.77%
Operating expenses	$117.1M	$68.6M	$57.1M	$60.5M
Operating income	$72.9M	$63.6M	$48.5M	$20.4M
Operating margin	15.47%	18.41%	17.28%	9.03%
EBITDA	$115.7M	$96.4M	$75.7M	$55.4M
EBITDA margin	24.53%	27.91%	26.96%	24.49%
Net income	$17.4M	$12.7M	$4.4M	−$14.1M
Net profit margin	3.68%	3.68%	1.55%	−6.23%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.13	$0.08	$0.03	-$0.09
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.13	$0.08	$0.03	-$0.09

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

5.18%of listed shares

FMR LLC6.87M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of KRMN
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	5.18%6.87M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.11%5.45M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.85%5.1M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.62%4.8M shares
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP	3.58%4.74M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	3.26%4.32M shares
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	3.17%4.2M shares
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.	2.70%3.58M shares
Stinnett David	≈2.64%3.5M shares
DONALDSON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.64%3.5M shares
GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC	2.50%3.32M shares
KHIS Custodian LP	2.15%2.85M shares
Lexington Partners L.P.	1.95%2.59M shares
Falcon Wealth Planning	1.94%2.57M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	1.85%2.45M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.78%2.37M shares
Koblinski Anthony	≈1.75%2.32M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.63%2.16M shares
Hood River Capital Management LLC	1.45%1.92M shares
Capital World Investors	1.43%1.9M shares

Percentages use 132.53M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)21$1.45B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Dec 12, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Koblinski AnthonyChief Executive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	75.0K	$69.31	$5.20M	2.32M
Dec 5, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Koblinski AnthonyChief Executive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	75.0K	$66.51	$4.99M	2.39M
Nov 28, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Koblinski AnthonyChief Executive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	75.0K	$67.40	$5.05M	2.47M
Nov 21, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Koblinski AnthonyChief Executive Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	75.0K	$58.48	$4.39M	2.54M
Nov 17, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Willis MichaelChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock · indirect	115.0K	$58.63	$6.74M	859.7K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)

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