Ethos Technologies Inc. (LIFE)

Price$38.55Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-16 21:18 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price already assumes strong growth, leaving little room for slower sales or weaker cash conversion.

Using about 63.8 million total shares and the observed market price, the equity value is roughly $2.68 billion. Subtracting Q2 cash and equivalents of $112.2 million and adding $1.8 million of debt gives an enterprise value—the value of operations after cash and debt adjustments—near $2.57 billion. That equals about 3.5 times the company’s 2026 revenue guidance midpoint of $729 million and 21 times guided adjusted EBITDA, a company-defined profit measure before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and share-based compensation. Those prices leave little protection if growth slows.

Big pictureRevenue is growing quickly, but durable owner earnings are not yet proven through a full business cycle.

Revenue rose from $159.8 million in 2023 to $254.9 million in 2024 and $387.6 million in 2025, while operating income reached $72.9 million and operating cash flow turned positive at $36.2 million. The first half of 2026 added $382.7 million of revenue and $66.9 million of operating cash flow, but Q1 included a $192.7 million stock-compensation charge and Q2 benefited from unusually rapid growth. Life-insurance demand and commissions can vary by product mix and season, so repeating this pace is an inference, not a reported fact.

Business strengthThe platform shows strong growth and financial cushion, but carrier concentration and share-based pay weaken those strengths.

Ethos reported a 98% gross-profit margin in Q2, revenue growth of 131% in its direct channel and 90% through third-party agents, plus 107,847 new policies. Its balance sheet had $110.4 million of net cash at June 30 and $103.0 million of working capital, meaning current assets minus current liabilities. However, three carriers represented about 88% of revenue, and six-month stock-based compensation was $209.8 million, more than three times operating cash flow. That makes adjusted results less representative of shareholder economics until awards settle.

What could change the storyLower valuation or cleaner per-share profits could improve the case; more dilution or slower growth would reinforce overvaluation.

The bull case is that 2026 guidance is conservative: at the midpoint, revenue grows 88% and adjusted EBITDA margin is about 17%, while Q2 operating cash flow was $35.7 million. The company also authorized up to $100 million of repurchases, which could offset issuance if actually completed, but the authorization is discretionary and no dividends are planned. The bear case is that 19.4 million shares are reserved for awards and warrants, carrier concentration persists, and cash generation lags adjusted EBITDA. The valuation therefore requires continued high growth, stable unit economics, and meaningful buybacks.

AI: News

Q2 Results and BuybackStrong second-quarter growth and a new buyback lifted expectations, although the market reaction may also reflect momentum.

On August 3, Ethos reported Q2 revenue of $189.6 million, up 113% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $35.2 million, and operating cash flow of $35.7 million. It raised full-year revenue guidance to $727–$731 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $119–$123 million, then authorized up to $100 million of Class A repurchases. MT Newswires reported shares rose roughly 27% the next day; that timing supports a positive market response, but it does not prove the announcement alone caused the entire move.

More Shares UnlockedA partial post-IPO selling restriction ended for about 5.1 million shares, increasing near-term supply pressure.

On May 13, the company said 25% of eligible securities, estimated at about 5.1 million Class A shares, would be released before trading on May 14. Remaining restrictions were scheduled to continue until after July 27, subject to another possible release. The shares represented roughly 8% of the 63.8 million shares outstanding at June 30, so the event materially increased potential supply around a newly listed stock. Actual selling was not disclosed in the announcement.

Analyst Targets RoseSeveral analysts raised targets after the earnings beat, yet their published average remained below the market price.

After the August 3 results, Citizens raised its target to $33 from $27, while Deutsche Bank raised its target to $40 from $30; StockAnalysis listed a nine-analyst average target of $34.88. These targets are opinions, not intrinsic value, and broker models can change quickly. Still, the gap between the average target and the market price is a useful supported valuation signal: even bullish analysts had not generally modeled enough upside to match the stock’s recent advance.

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Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023
Revenue	$387.6M	$254.9M	$159.8M
Gross profit	$380.9M	$248.4M	$153.9M
Gross margin	98.26%	97.44%	96.31%
Operating expenses	$314.7M	$206.2M	$156.8M
Operating income	$72.9M	$48.7M	−$2.9M
Operating margin	18.81%	19.12%	−1.82%
EBITDA	$78.3M	$54.2M	$8.7M
EBITDA margin	20.20%	21.26%	5.46%
Net income	$71.2M	$48.8M	$1.7M
Net profit margin	18.36%	19.16%	1.06%
Basic EPSper basic share	$4.31	$3.05	$0.03
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.22	$0.85	$0.03

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

11.48%of listed shares

Alphabet Inc.3.62M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of LIFE
Holder	% owned
Alphabet Inc.	11.48%3.62M shares
SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.	9.92%3.13M shares
Divisadero Street Capital Management, LP	5.18%1.64M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	5.02%1.58M shares
Capital World Investors	4.17%1.32M shares
GLADE BROOK CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC	2.72%857.86K shares
Wang Lingke	≈2.20%695.3K shares
Colis Peter George	≈2.20%695.3K shares
Capozzi Christopher M.	≈2.11%665.23K shares
Sharma Vipul	≈1.68%529.22K shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.55%487.57K shares
UBS Group AG	1.32%417.41K shares
CANNELL CAPITAL LLC	1.29%408.5K shares
HEALTHCARE OF ONTARIO PENSION PLAN TRUST FUND	1.11%350K shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	1.09%342.5K shares
MANUFACTURERS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY, THE	1.08%341.28K shares
WHEELER WILLIAM J	≈0.86%271.03K shares
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC	0.83%261.37K shares
Lantz Erin N	≈0.80%253.9K shares
BARD ASSOCIATES INC	0.79%248.22K shares

Percentages use 31.56M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$10.00M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)16$49.48M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 15, 2026Form 4	Colis Peter GeorgeCEO and Secretary	SellClass A Common Stock	5.1K	$22.78	$117.2K	751.1K
May 15, 2026Form 4	Colis Peter GeorgeCEO and Secretary	SellClass A Common Stock	54.9K	$22.00	$1.21M	756.3K
May 15, 2026Form 4	Wang LingkePresident	SellClass A Common Stock	6.9K	$22.77	$156.1K	764.8K
May 15, 2026Form 4	Wang LingkePresident	SellClass A Common Stock	39.5K	$21.99	$868.5K	771.7K
May 15, 2026Form 4	Capozzi Christopher M.Chief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	17.6K	$22.72	$400.6K	665.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Ethos Technologies Inc. (LIFE)

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