Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)

Price$14.81Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 10:59 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price still assumes rapid growth and a sharp improvement in cash generation.

Using about 229 million total share equivalents, the observed market value of the equity is roughly $3.4 billion. Adding debt and subtracting cash gives an enterprise value—what buyers effectively pay for the operating business—near $3.45 billion. Against management’s $900 million to $1 billion 2026 revenue outlook, that is roughly 3.5 to 3.8 times sales. First-half free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, was deeply negative, so this valuation already requires fast growth, better margins, and durable cash generation. StockAnalysis.com+2Intuitive Machines+2

Big pictureRevenue is surging after acquisitions, but losses and cash burn remain substantial.

The supplied financial history shows Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue of about $387 million, more than triple the comparable 2025 amount, but operating losses totaled about $86 million. Operating cash flow for the first half was negative $112 million, and capital spending pushed free cash flow to about negative $146 million. The company still targets $900 million to $1 billion of 2026 revenue and positive adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and certain other costs. That improvement is the key bridge the current valuation depends on. Pasted text Intuitive Machines+1

Business strengthBig contract wins improve visibility, while debt and project timing still make results uneven.

Backlog reached $1.8 billion; about $613 million came with Lanteris, while new awards added scale across commercial, civil, and defense work, including a communications program valued above $600 million. That supports the bull case because awarded work can feed revenue for years. The balance sheet held about $367 million cash against roughly $430 million debt, so debt exceeded cash by about $62 million; current assets still exceeded current liabilities by about $263 million. Contract timing and milestone execution can make cash flows uneven, so backlog quality matters more than headline size. Intuitive Machines+1

What could change the storySustained positive cash flow could justify the valuation; more dilution or delays would weaken it.

Capital allocation is the largest swing factor. Lanteris cost $853 million, including about $406 million cash and nearly 23 million new shares. In 2026 the company also sold about 11.6 million shares privately and 8.3 million through its market-sale program, raising roughly $403 million net of disclosed costs. Its $345 million convertible notes—debt that can turn into stock—could create additional shares, although separate financial contracts are designed to offset some dilution. Sustained positive cash flow without heavy new issuance would strengthen the case; renewed funding needs or program delays would weaken it. SEC+2SEC+2

AI: News

Q2 results and backlogQuarterly revenue jumped, backlog hit a record, but profit and cash measures remained weak.

On August 13, Intuitive Machines reported record quarterly revenue and $1.8 billion of backlog while keeping its $900 million to $1 billion full-year revenue outlook. First-half free cash flow was negative $146 million, and adjusted operating profit remained negative for the quarter. Financial coverage described an initial share-price drop followed by a rebound, suggesting investors weighed rapid growth against weaker profitability rather than reacting to one clear signal. Intuitive Machines+2Intuitive Machines+2

Large communications awardA new communications program worth more than $600 million expanded backlog and validated a larger satellite platform.

On August 17, the company said an undisclosed customer authorized work on a multi-satellite communications program with anticipated value above $600 million using its IM 1300 platform. The size is material relative to recent annual revenue and broadens demand beyond lunar missions. Investing.com reported the shares up about 4% in morning trading after the announcement. That timing makes the award a plausible catalyst, though it does not prove the contract alone caused the move. Intuitive Machines+1

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$207.1M	$228.0M	$79.6M	$85.9M	—
Gross profit	$6.1M	$2.8M	−$20.9M	$10.4M	—
Gross margin	2.93%	1.21%	−26.30%	12.14%	—
Operating expenses	$93.3M	$285.4M	$140.7M	$91.5M	$491,341
Operating income	−$87.2M	−$57.4M	−$61.1M	−$5.5M	−$491,341
Operating margin	−42.11%	−25.17%	−76.83%	−6.41%	—
EBITDA	−$83.6M	−$55.5M	−$59.7M	−$4.4M	—
EBITDA margin	−40.38%	−24.36%	−75.10%	−5.16%	—
Net income	−$83.3M	−$283.4M	$61.8M	−$190,408	−$315,511
Net profit margin	−40.21%	−124.30%	77.64%	−0.22%	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.73	-$4.63	$3.37	$0.00	-$0.02
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.73	-$4.63	$2.42	$0.00	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

13.56%of listed shares

Advent International, L.P.22.99M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of LUNR
Holder	% owned
Advent International, L.P.	13.56%22.99M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.22%12.24M shares
STATE STREET CORP	5.88%9.96M shares
Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd.	4.02%6.82M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.65%6.18M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	3.39%5.75M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	2.94%4.99M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.37%4.02M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	2.27%3.85M shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	2.20%3.72M shares
VOYA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC	2.03%3.45M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.96%3.32M shares
FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC	1.87%3.17M shares
Tema ETFs LLC	1.83%3.11M shares
UBS Group AG	1.83%3.1M shares
Tidal Investments LLC	1.78%3.01M shares
ARK Investment Management LLC	1.59%2.7M shares
Gotham Asset Management, LLC	1.19%2.02M shares
BLITZER MICHAEL	≈1.14%1.94M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.04%1.77M shares

Percentages use 169.53M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys2$2.19M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)121$211.89M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Crain Timothy Price IISVP & Chief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	14.6K	$22.39	$326.9K	351.3K
Jun 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Crain Timothy Price IISVP & Chief Technology Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	135.4K	$21.81	$2.95M	365.9K
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed +2Director,TenPercentOwner	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	766	$27.75	$21.3K	3.49M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed +2Director,TenPercentOwner	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	19.3K	$26.86	$519.3K	3.50M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ghaffarian Kamal Seyed +2Director,TenPercentOwner	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	121.8K	$26.03	$3.17M	3.51M