Lyntris Inc. (LYNX)

Price$13.67Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-17 12:51 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe discounted debut price balances rapid growth against weak profits and heavy debt.

Using 115.95 million post-offering shares, the quote implies about $1.48 billion of equity value. Adding roughly $206.8 million of pro forma debt and subtracting $23.7 million of cash values the operating business near $1.66 billion. That equals roughly 22 times annualized first-half 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and selected costs, plus 3.4 times annualized sales. Those are not bargain levels for a loss-maker, but rapid growth and backlog support a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureSales are surging, but profits and recent cash gains remain less dependable.

Revenue rose 16.5% to $388.9 million in 2025, gross profit increased 14.7%, and the net loss narrowed to $8.5 million from $31.0 million. Supplied annual data shows $22.3 million of operating cash and $3.9 million invested in property and equipment, implying $18.4 million of free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business. However, first-half 2026 cash improved largely through advance billings and delayed payments; meanwhile, the loss widened and the share of sales left after direct costs fell.

Business strengthDeep program ties support demand, while debt and new shares limit downside protection.

Demand quality looks unusually strong: Lyntris served over 200 defense programs in 2025, roughly 90% of revenue came from sole- or single-source positions, and no program exceeded 7% of sales. Yet about 97% of revenue depended directly or indirectly on U.S. government work, so funding and contract timing drive cycles. After the offering, pro forma debt remained $206.8 million against $23.7 million cash, while first-half interest cost $16.9 million. The company issued 5.7 million new shares, about 5%, mainly to retire $60 million of debt.

What could change the storySustained growth and better margins could unlock value; stalled conversion would expose risk.

The strongest bull signal is $923.9 million of midyear backlog, nearly double year-end 2025, alongside 34.6% first-half organic sales growth. Backlog means expected revenue from awarded work, but customers can delay or cancel it. The price requires continued double-digit growth, conversion of awards into sales, gross margin recovering toward or above 29%, and recurring positive free cash flow that lowers debt. The bear case strengthens if growth slows, margins remain near 26.6%, or the advance-payment cash boost reverses, because debt and interest would absorb more of owners’ returns.

AI: News

Downsized public debutThe offering shrank and shares fell on debut, showing investors demanded a larger risk discount.

On August 18, Lyntris priced a 17 million-share offering below the marketed range after initially proposing 24 million shares. The company sold 5.7 million shares, while existing holders sold 11.3 million. Reuters reported an 11.4% drop on the August 19 debut and a $1.78 billion valuation. The deal raised $297.5 million in total, but Lyntris expected only about $69.5 million of net proceeds, mostly earmarked for debt repayment. That directly changed ownership, leverage, and public price discovery.

Interim growth acceleratedNew filings showed rapid sales and future-work growth, alongside thinner margins and a wider loss.

The August prospectus reported first-half 2026 revenue of $241.0 million, up 34.6% organically, and backlog—expected revenue from awarded work—of $923.9 million versus $436.1 million a year earlier. Yet the share of sales left after direct costs fell to 26.6% from 29.2%, operating income nearly disappeared, and the net loss widened to $13.0 million from $9.7 million. Operating cash reached $34.9 million, but advance billings and delayed payments drove much of the improvement.

Thermal production addedA new in-house cooling line broadens Lyntris’s sensor offering, but no sales were disclosed.

On August 28, Lyntris said it had completed a multi-year investment in phase-change-material production at its Jessup, Maryland facility, with capacity available during the third quarter. The technology absorbs heat without pumps or plumbing, potentially improving compact sensors and missile seekers while bringing another manufacturing step in-house. However, Lyntris disclosed neither investment cost, signed orders, production volume, nor expected revenue. The event therefore adds a credible opportunity, but its financial importance remains unproven.

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Revenue

2024

2025

Net income

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024
Revenue	$388.9M	$334.0M
Gross profit	$115.1M	$100.4M
Gross margin	29.60%	30.05%
Operating expenses	$90.3M	$95.4M
Operating income	$24.8M	$4.9M
Operating margin	6.38%	1.47%
EBITDA	$47.1M	$27.4M
EBITDA margin	12.11%	8.19%
Net income	−$8.5M	−$31.0M
Net profit margin	−2.17%	−9.29%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.07	-$0.27
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.07	-$0.27