Mastercard Inc (MA)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe price is fair for exceptional growth, but leaves little room for disappointment.

At the latest market close, Mastercard was $569.29. Estimated trailing earnings are about $18.18 per share—2025’s $16.52, plus 2026 first-half earnings of $9.32, less $7.66 from the prior-year half—making the price roughly 31 times earnings. Trailing free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending, is about $16.7 billion, a 3.3% yield on an estimated $503 billion market value. A cash-flow model requiring a 9% yearly return implies about 8.7% annual growth for a decade. That is plausible, but not cheap.

Big pictureGrowth remains strong, although travel and consumer spending still shape each quarter.

Revenue rose from $25.1 billion in 2023 to $32.8 billion in 2025, while net income climbed from $11.2 billion to $15.0 billion. Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 14% and reported earnings per share rose 22%, showing durability rather than a one-quarter rebound. The network still moves with spending and travel: switched volume grew 9%, cross-border volume 12%, and travel-related cross-border volume 6%. July cross-border growth eased to 11%, so weaker consumer spending or international travel would reach revenue quickly.

Business strengthMastercard turns sales into cash efficiently, while rising debt deserves attention.

Mastercard generated $17.6 billion of operating cash in 2025 against $489 million of supplied capital spending. Buybacks of $11.7 billion and dividends of $2.8 billion remained below that cash total, while the inferred diluted share count fell roughly 3% year over year in the second quarter despite $597 million of 2025 stock pay. However, first-half 2026 buybacks and dividends reached $10.5 billion versus $6.8 billion of operating cash. By June, debt had risen to $24.6 billion, but $11.3 billion of cash left net debt at a manageable 0.8 times trailing free cash flow.

What could change the storyFaster service growth supports upside, while weaker payment economics threaten the valuation.

Upside needs value-added services—fraud tools, data, and related payment services—which grew 20% in the second quarter, to keep outpacing the payment network’s 10%, while BVNK turns stablecoin demand into profitable flows. The bear case is the proposed U.S. settlement: interchange paid mainly to card-issuing banks would fall 0.1 percentage point for five years, and merchants could reject premium-card categories. Mastercard does not keep most interchange, so the risk is indirect through rewards, payment mix, and bargaining power. Cash growth above roughly 9% supports today’s price; sustained mid-single-digit growth would not.

$569.29 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter earnings beatStrong spending and service growth lifted profit above forecasts, supporting confidence in continued expansion.

On July 30, 2026, Mastercard reported second-quarter revenue of $9.277 billion, up 14%, and adjusted earnings of $5.04 per share, up 21% and above analysts’ $4.77 average estimate. Cross-border volume advanced 12%, while value-added services revenue grew 20%. Shares closed 2.49% higher at $577.35. Reuters connected the early rise to the earnings beat; that interpretation is plausible, although one-day movement cannot prove the report was the only cause.

Merchant settlement advancesA judge advanced a merchant settlement that reduces fees but also lowers a major legal risk.

On June 9, 2026, a federal judge granted preliminary approval to revised rules covering more than 12 million merchants. Interchange, paid mainly to card-issuing banks, would fall 0.1 percentage point for five years; standard consumer rates would be capped at 1.25% for eight years. The quoted $38 billion is projected merchant savings through 2031, not a Mastercard cash payment. Mastercard rose 2% that day, but timing does not establish cause. Final approval and objections remain, while premium-card incentives and merchant bargaining could still change.

BVNK acquisition closesMastercard completed a costly stablecoin purchase to protect its role as payment technology changes.

On August 3, 2026, Mastercard completed its purchase of BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure provider. The March agreement set $1.5 billion upfront plus as much as $300 million tied to performance. BVNK connects traditional money with digital currencies for business payments, remittances, payouts, and settlement. That could defend Mastercard if some activity leaves card networks, but returns depend on adoption and integration. Shares slipped 0.37% that day; no reliable evidence isolates the acquisition as the cause.

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2016	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$32.79B	$28.17B	$25.10B	$22.24B	$29.84B	$23.62B	$24.98B	$10.78B	$9.47B	$8.35B	$7.39B	$6.71B	$5.54B	$5.10B	$4.99B	$4.07B
Operating expenses	$13.89B	$12.59B	$11.09B	$9.97B	$8.80B	$7.22B	$7.22B	$5.01B	$4.33B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	$18.90B	$15.58B	$14.01B	$12.26B	$10.08B	$8.08B	$9.66B	$5.76B	$5.11B	$4.50B	$3.94B	$2.71B	$2.75B	$2.26B	−$534.0M	$1.11B
EBITDAderived	$20.04B	$16.48B	$14.81B	$13.01B	$10.81B	$8.66B	$10.19B	$6.13B	$5.43B	$4.76B	$4.17B	$2.91B	$2.90B	$2.40B	−$422.0M	$1.21B
Net income	$14.97B	$12.87B	$11.20B	$9.93B	$8.69B	$6.41B	$8.12B	$4.06B	$3.62B	$3.12B	$2.76B	$1.91B	$1.85B	$1.46B	−$254.0M	$1.09B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$16.54	$13.91	$11.86	$10.26	$8.79	$6.40	$7.98	$3.70	$3.11	$2.57	$2.20	$1.49	$14.10	$11.19	-$1.94	$7.98
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$16.52	$13.89	$11.83	$10.22	$8.76	$6.37	$7.94	$3.69	$3.10	$2.56	$2.19	$1.48	$14.05	$11.16	-$1.94	$7.96

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)141$371.17M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ling HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEA	SellClass A Common Stock	4.5K	$495.71	$2.22M	25.7K
Feb 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ling HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEA	SellClass A Common Stock	40	$522.65	$20.9K	25.7K
Feb 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ling HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEA	SellClass A Common Stock	80	$521.56	$41.7K	25.7K
Feb 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ling HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEA	SellClass A Common Stock	41	$520.20	$21.3K	25.8K
Feb 23, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Ling HaiPresident, AP, Europe, MEA	SellClass A Common Stock	120	$519.34	$62.3K	25.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Mastercard Inc (MA)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells