Madison Air Solutions Corp (MAIR)

Price$23.72Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-18 05:13 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkStrong growth is real, but the current valuation already prices in continued execution.

At the observed close, roughly 501.7 million existing shares imply about $14.3 billion of equity value. Adding June net debt of about $2.79 billion gives roughly $17.1 billion of enterprise value, or about 16 times the midpoint of 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a rough operating cash-earnings measure. After the announced equity financing and acquisition, a simple calculation remains near 16 times combined operating cash earnings before expected savings. That is reasonable for strong growth, but not an obvious value bargain.

Big pictureCommercial demand is powerful, while residential softness and uneven cash generation temper the story.

Revenue rose from $2.56 billion in 2023 to $2.62 billion in 2024 and $3.34 billion in 2025. Net income was less durable, moving from $76.5 million to $236.2 million and then $124.3 million. First-half 2026 free cash flow, meaning cash left after operating and property investment, was $140.0 million versus $152.4 million a year earlier. Second-quarter Commercial sales grew 22.3% organically, while Residential sales fell 4.8% organically, showing that data-center and specialized commercial demand is currently offsetting housing-related cyclicality.

Business strengthThe balance sheet improved after the offering, but the acquisition will rebuild leverage and dilute owners.

The April offering generated about $2.58 billion of net proceeds, and Madison Air used those funds plus cash to repay roughly $2.66 billion of borrowings. At June 30, debt was $3.05 billion, cash was $261.8 million, and current assets exceeded current liabilities by about $618 million. The August financing would issue about 90.1 million additional shares, roughly 18% of the existing share count. Management expects acquisition financing to lift net leverage to about 3.7 times, then targets below 2.5 times within two years.

What could change the storyBacklog and acquisition savings could drive upside, while weak cash conversion would undermine the case.

The strongest bull evidence is a $2.87 billion backlog, up 133% year over year, combined orders growth of 45%, and 2026 sales guidance of $3.83-$3.93 billion. The acquisition target is expected to contribute about $2.8 billion of annual revenue and $343 million of adjusted operating cash earnings, with $160 million of annual cost savings targeted by year three. The bear case is paying about 14.6 times the target's forecast operating cash earnings before savings while taking leverage higher. Faster deleveraging would strengthen the thesis; stalled cash generation would weaken it.

AI: News

Strong second quarterSales and profit jumped, but the shares fell as investors weighed unchanged profit guidance.

On July 30, Madison Air reported second-quarter sales of $991.3 million, up 21%, net income of $70.5 million, and adjusted net income of $147.7 million. Backlog reached $2.87 billion, up 133%. Management raised full-year sales guidance to $3.83-$3.93 billion but kept adjusted operating cash-earnings guidance at $1.02-$1.07 billion. The shares closed about 8% lower that day. Reporting linked the decline to investor concerns around the outlook, although same-day timing cannot prove a single cause.

Large acquisition announcedMadison Air agreed to a transformative acquisition that expands growth opportunities while materially increasing financial risk.

On August 17, Madison Air announced an acquisition with a $5.4 billion stated enterprise purchase price, or about $5.0 billion after estimated future tax savings. The acquired operations are expected to generate roughly $2.8 billion of 2026 revenue and $343 million of adjusted operating cash earnings. Management targets $160 million of annual cost savings by year three. Madison Air shares fell about 5.5% that day, consistent with financing and integration concerns, although price timing alone does not establish causation.

Equity financing securedA large share sale reduced funding uncertainty but created meaningful dilution for existing shareholders.

On August 25, Madison Air agreed to issue about 90.1 million Class A shares for approximately $2.25 billion of gross proceeds to fund the acquisition's equity portion. That issuance equals roughly 18% of the approximately 501.7 million shares previously outstanding. Management said the remaining acquisition funding would use about $2.8 billion of debt and cash, leaving pro forma net leverage near 3.7 times. The shares rose about 12% that day, but the timing only suggests investors may have welcomed greater financing certainty.

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Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023
Revenue	$3.34B	$2.62B	$2.56B
Operating expenses	$862.7M	$520.4M	$519.0M
Operating income	$501.6M	$486.5M	$418.8M
Operating margin	15.02%	18.54%	16.38%
EBITDA	$697.3M	$625.2M	$550.9M
EBITDA margin	20.88%	23.82%	21.55%
Net income	$124.3M	$236.2M	$76.5M
Net profit margin	3.72%	9.00%	2.99%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.35	$0.36	$0.12
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.35	$0.36	$0.12

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈25.29%of listed shares

BERTARELLI ERNESTO44.84M shares · Apr 16, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of MAIR
Holder	% owned
BERTARELLI ERNESTO	≈25.29%44.84M shares
KC Armada LP	≈25.29%44.84M shares
FMR LLC	7.94%14.08M shares
Durable Capital Partners LP	5.75%10.2M shares
Invesco Ltd.	4.40%7.8M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.23%7.5M shares
HRTG GPE, LLC	4.18%7.41M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	3.64%6.45M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	3.27%5.79M shares
Pictet Asset Management Holding SA	2.50%4.43M shares
Zimmer Partners, LP	2.34%4.15M shares
Forest Avenue Capital Management LP	2.29%4.06M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.09%3.71M shares
Wyant Jill S	≈1.96%3.47M shares
LORD, ABBETT & CO. LLC	1.80%3.19M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.73%3.07M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.69%2.99M shares
XN LP	1.48%2.63M shares
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.	1.38%2.45M shares
HEALTHCARE OF ONTARIO PENSION PLAN TRUST FUND	1.38%2.44M shares

Percentages use 177.29M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Reported positions exceed 100% in total, so the circle shows the selected holder only.

Source: SEC Form 3 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Madison Air Solutions Corp (MAIR)

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