Veradermics, Inc (MANE)

Price$98.51Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 04:14 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price already assumes major commercial success, leaving little room for clinical setbacks.

Using current market-value data, Veradermics is worth about $4.1 billion, while June cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $819.9 million and debt was negligible. That leaves roughly $3.3 billion of value assigned to a pipeline with no product revenue yet. Illustratively, if eventual commercial success were only 60% likely, that pipeline value corresponds to about $5.5 billion of post-success value before remaining costs and time discounting. That is possible, but the limited valuation cushion supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureVeradermics is funding a promising hair-loss drug, but today it still spends cash without sales.

The company lost $70.0 million in 2025, versus $26.5 million in 2024, while operating cash use widened to $71.6 million from $23.7 million. In the first half of 2026, net loss was $50.7 million and operating cash use was $35.7 million. Cash generation is therefore still negative because there are no product sales. This is not a normal cyclical business: value depends much more on trial, regulatory and launch milestones than on broad economic swings.

Business strengthStrong trial results and a huge cash reserve reduce financing risk, but approval remains unproven.

The strongest bull case is VDPHL01's clinical profile and funding. In Study 302, 519 men gained about 30 to 33 non-vellus hairs per square centimeter versus 7.3 on placebo at six months, with no treatment-related serious adverse events or cardiac events of special interest reported. Veradermics cites roughly 80 million U.S. patients with pattern hair loss. Meanwhile, $819.9 million of cash and marketable securities should fund development into 2030 under management's plan, reducing financing risk while confirmatory data arrive.

What could change the storyConfirmatory trial success could justify the premium; weak durability or safety data would quickly challenge it.

The key test is whether later studies confirm durable efficacy and safety. Study 304's confirmatory male results and 12-month Study 302 data are expected in the second half of 2026; the 556-participant female Study 306 is expected in the first half of 2027. Capital raising has been aggressive but useful: 2026 gross proceeds totaled about $766.8 million. Common shares outstanding were 41.78 million at June versus 0.75 million at December, but much of that jump reflects IPO-era preferred conversion plus new issuance, so the raw comparison overstates ordinary dilution.

AI: News

Female trial readoutFemale trial results strengthened the case for a second major market and lifted the shares.

On July 15, 2026, Veradermics reported positive six-month results from the 28-woman treatment portion of open-label Study 207. Average non-vellus hair count increased 22.7 hairs per square centimeter with once-daily dosing and 23.3 with twice-daily dosing; 88.9% and 90.0% reported improved or much improved coverage. No treatment-related serious adverse events or cardiac events of special interest were reported. News reports put the shares roughly 9% to 12% higher during the session, although timing cannot prove the data caused the entire move.

Insider selling pressureLarge insider-linked sales created a supply overhang, pressuring confidence without changing the clinical evidence.

SEC filings show director-linked Montanova Capital sold 750,000 shares on August 19 and exercised pre-funded warrants for 300,000 shares the next day, so the gross sale overstates the reduction in exposure. On August 24, the stock fell about 4.8% in midday trading; financial coverage linked the weakness to insider selling and dilution concerns. That attribution is plausible but not provable from price timing alone. The transactions affect share supply and investor confidence, not the underlying clinical evidence or cash balance.

Male trial breakthroughPositive male trial data sharply raised expectations for approval and future commercial demand.

On April 27, 2026, Study 302 met all primary and key secondary endpoints in 519 men. Hair count rose about 30 to 33 hairs per square centimeter with VDPHL01 versus 7.3 on placebo, and no treatment-related serious adverse events or cardiac events of special interest were reported. Reuters reported shares up about 25% before the open. The timing strongly suggests the trial news drove much of that repricing, but it cannot establish that every part of the move came from the announcement.

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Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023
Revenue	$0	$0	$0
Research & development	$62.1M	$23.3M	$15.0M
Operating expenses	$72.3M	$26.8M	$17.3M
Operating income	−$72.3M	−$26.8M	−$17.3M
EBITDA	−$70.0M	−$25.9M	−$16.5M
Net income	−$70.0M	−$26.5M	−$16.5M
Basic EPSper basic share	-$111.91	-$37.05	-$1.51
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$111.91	-$37.05	-$1.51

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈11.14%of listed shares

ENRIGHT PATRICK G4.65M shares · Feb 5, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of MANE
Holder	% owned
ENRIGHT PATRICK G	≈11.14%4.65M shares
Longitude Venture Partners V, L.P. / Longitude 103.8 East Partners, LLC / Longitude Capital Partners V, LLC / Longitude 103.8 East, L.P.	≈11.14%4.65M shares
MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC	9.98%4.17M shares
FMR LLC	7.67%3.2M shares
SR One Capital Management, LP	5.75%2.4M shares
Deep Track Capital, LP	4.79%2M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	4.49%1.88M shares
Siren, L.L.C.	3.96%1.66M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	3.81%1.59M shares
VIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS LP	3.74%1.56M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.79%1.17M shares
Aberdeen Group plc	2.62%1.1M shares
Coric Vlad	≈2.46%1.03M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	2.43%1.01M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.08%869.21K shares
MAVERICK CAPITAL LTD	1.89%789.98K shares
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC	1.79%748.68K shares
INFINITUM ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.75%731.15K shares
UBS Group AG	1.61%670.73K shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	1.40%585.56K shares

Percentages use 41.78M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys27$59.09M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 6, 2026Form 4	SUVRETTA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC +3Director,TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon stock, par value $0.00001 per share · indirect	19.3K	$36.55	$706.8K	520.5K
Feb 6, 2026Form 4	SUVRETTA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC +3Director,TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon stock, par value $0.00001 per share · indirect	11.2K	$35.97	$402.3K	501.1K
Feb 5, 2026Form 4/A	CHILDS JOHN WDirector	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	294.1K	$17.00	$5.00M	294.1K
Feb 5, 2026Form 4	SUVRETTA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC +3Director,TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon stock, par value $0.00001 per share · indirect	16.6K	$39.80	$659.2K	489.9K
Feb 5, 2026Form 4	SUVRETTA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC +3Director,TenPercentOwner	BuyCommon stock, par value $0.00001 per share · indirect	17.8K	$38.67	$689.7K	473.4K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Veradermics, Inc (MANE)

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