Methanex Corp (MEOH)

Price$58.86Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-27 21:57 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because strong cash generation is offset by heavy debt and unusually high methanol prices.

At the observed quote, roughly 77 million shares imply a total stock-market value near $4.7 billion. The supplied six-year history averages about $683 million of operating cash flow minus capital spending, a simple measure of cash left after running and investing in the business, so the stock-market value is about seven times that average. But adding year-end 2025 net debt, meaning debt minus cash, of about $3.1 billion puts the whole business near ten times six-year average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That balance supports a fair-priced view rather than a clear bargain.

Big pictureCash generation has held up better than reported profit, but both still swing sharply with methanol prices.

Revenue fell from $4.4 billion in 2021 to $3.6 billion in 2025, while net income dropped from $556 million to $145 million. Yet operating cash flow was still $1.0 billion in 2025, and after roughly $99 million of capital spending, the simple cash-left measure was about $917 million. The latest quarter shows why caution matters: Methanex’s average methanol price actually received jumped from $351 per tonne in the first quarter of 2026 to $529 in the second, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose from $220 million to $577 million.

Business strengthThe larger asset base generates more cash, but the acquisition added debt and many more shares.

The supplied history shows total assets rising to $7.3 billion in 2025, but debt also rose to $3.5 billion and net debt, meaning debt minus cash, to $3.1 billion. Shares outstanding increased from 67.4 million to 77.3 million, about 15%, consistent with shares issued for the OCI acquisition. Capital spending was $99 million and dividends $54 million. Debt reduction is visible: Methanex repaid $60 million of its term loan in the first quarter of 2026 and the remaining $290 million in the second, ending June with $383 million cash and a $400 million unused bank credit line.

What could change the storySustained high methanol prices could make the shares cheap; normalization and plant closures could do the opposite.

The bull case is sustained average pricing around the July-August guide of $460-$485 per tonne, strong Geismar and acquired Beaumont and Natgasoline output, and continued debt repayment. That combination could keep cash generation well above the six-year average. The bear case is a return toward first-quarter pricing near $351 per tonne while Methanex also loses capacity: Titan in Trinidad is being idled and New Zealand production is expected to stop in early 2027. The current valuation therefore needs solid prices through a normal part of the cycle and successful integration, not just one exceptional quarter.

AI: News

New Zealand exit planMethanex will sell most contracted gas and indefinitely idle New Zealand plants, shrinking production but preserving cash value.

On September 1, 2026, Methanex said it will sell substantially all New Zealand gas entitlements from the first quarter of 2027 through contract expiry at decade-end, then indefinitely idle its local production facilities. Management says domestic gas supply has kept declining and sees no clear path to meaningful new supply. The company does not expect material cash costs from the decision. Investors should weigh lost production against value recovered from gas rights and avoided uneconomic operations.

Record second-quarter earningsA supply-driven methanol price surge lifted second-quarter earnings and cash flow, but management expects prices to ease.

On July 28, 2026, Methanex reported $198 million of shareholder net income, $577 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and $439 million of operating cash flow. The average methanol price actually received rose to $529 per tonne from $351 in the prior quarter after major industry supply losses linked to Middle East conflict. July-August pricing was expected at $460-$485, signaling some normalization. The following trading day rose about 2.7%, though timing alone does not prove the earnings caused the move.

Titan plant idlingFailed gas-contract talks forced an indefinite Titan shutdown and a large accounting write-down.

On June 29, 2026, Methanex said it could not secure a new natural-gas contract for the Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago, whose existing contract expires in the third quarter. Titan has 860,000 tonnes of annual capacity. Methanex began an indefinite idling process while preserving restart optionality. In second-quarter results, the decision produced a $115 million non-cash accounting write-down after tax plus $12 million set aside for restructuring costs. The key issue is whether lower-cost capacity elsewhere can replace the lost volume without weakening cash generation.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	$3.59B	$3.72B	$3.72B	$4.31B	$4.41B	$2.65B	$3.28B	$4.48B	$3.06B	$2.00B
Gross profit	$1.28B	$1.04B	$925.7M	$1.07B	$1.30B	$542.4M	$712.7M	$1.35B	$1.03B	$464.5M
Gross margin	35.69%	28.01%	24.86%	24.89%	29.51%	20.47%	21.70%	30.22%	33.49%	23.24%
Operating expenses	$2.68B	$3.01B	$3.07B	$3.45B	$3.34B	$2.36B	$2.80B	$3.41B	$2.35B	$1.77B
Operating income	$431.1M	$362.0M	$263.6M	$610.6M	$712.0M	−$52.5M	$189.4M	$829.6M	$476.5M	$28.4M
Operating margin	12.01%	9.73%	7.08%	14.16%	16.13%	−1.98%	5.77%	18.51%	15.57%	1.42%
EBITDA	$877.1M	$747.7M	$655.4M	$983.0M	$1.08B	$304.7M	$533.6M	$1.07B	$708.7M	$256.5M
EBITDA margin	24.44%	20.10%	17.60%	22.80%	24.35%	11.50%	16.25%	23.98%	23.16%	12.84%
Net income	$144.8M	$250.2M	$284.1M	$462.3M	$555.9M	−$125.3M	$116.4M	$658.0M	$375.1M	−$28.2M
Net profit margin	4.03%	6.73%	7.63%	10.72%	12.59%	−4.73%	3.54%	14.68%	12.26%	−1.41%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.10	$2.43	$2.57	$4.95	$6.34	-$2.06	$1.15	$7.07	$3.64	-$0.14
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.93	$2.39	$2.57	$4.86	$6.13	-$2.06	$1.01	$6.92	$3.64	-$0.14

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of MEOH
Holder	Shares held
M&G PLC	12.35M
Boston Partners	4.17M
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	3.97M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.11M
Dixon Mitchell Investment Counsel Inc.	1.92M
MACKENZIE FINANCIAL CORP	1.91M
FIL Ltd	1.91M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.56M
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	1.31M
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA	1.31M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.23M
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	1.16M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.16M
Merewether Investment Management, LP	1.13M
NORGES BANK	960.53K
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	929.02K
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	903.58K
TD Asset Management Inc	808.73K
Encompass Capital Advisors LLC	791.12K
Man Group plc	760.09K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Methanex Corp (MEOH)

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